Trump is elected to change the economic landscape. 2017 the world is expected to recover slowly.

Trump's election changes the economic landscape in 2017, and the world is expected to recover slowly

Farewell to black swan events, stock market, foreign exchange market and raw material market volatility in 2016, looking forward to the new year, whether the global economic trend appears brand-new weather? Starting from the 28th, the Fubon Financial Trend Forum will analyze the global economic development trend in 2017 from various aspects and provide investors with the best countermeasures.

Dr. Luo Wei, chief economist of Fubon Financial Control Economic Research Center, pointed out in his lecture "2017 Global Economic Outlook" that the three major keynote of next year's global economic outlook include: the global economy maintains a slow recovery, fiscal expansion replaces loose monetary policy, and the raw material downturn has come to an end. Overall, the global economic outlook for 2017 is likely to be better than 2016.

Luo Wei further pointed out that with the expansion of fiscal expenditure in the United States and Europe to drive up the demand for raw materials, emerging markets will gradually stabilize and the global economy will have a good turn. Luo Wei said that there are still many uncertain factors affecting the global economy and capital market in 2017. First, what changes will be made in the policy adjustment and personnel layout of the new U.S. government, and whether it will trigger an international trade war is still unknown. Secondly, Germany and France will hold elections, Italy may also hold early parliamentary elections, plus Britain's application for Brexit and negotiations. The political risks in Europe next year cannot be ignored. The third factor is China's mortgage and credit problems, which, if not properly regulated, may cause market turmoil and affect neighboring Asian countries; finally, the rising geopolitical conflicts in North Korea, Syria and Ukraine will drag down global capital markets.

Luo Wei stressed that, on the whole, stocks are better than bonds in the investment direction in 2017. Due to the good fundamentals of the global economy, the promotion of fiscal policies by various countries will generate substantial demand. Whether it is infrastructure construction or tax reduction, the effect is better than that of loose monetary policies in the past. The monetary policy of major central banks has reached its limit, so large-scale QE will not be promoted next year. Coupled with the acceleration of price growth in various countries, it will be detrimental to bond markets, and the importance of anti-inflation bonds will rise sharply. On the foreign exchange market, under the tacit understanding of major central banks not to interfere with exchange rates with monetary policy, it is necessary to pay attention to capital transfers caused by political risks. Raw material prices will stabilize gradually as the imbalance between supply and demand improves, and precious metals performance opportunities will re-emerge.

▲ Luo Wei, chief economist of Fubon Financial Control and Economic Research Center, put forward three keynote of global economic outlook next year and economic forecast for major countries at the press conference of "2017 Fubon Financial Trend Forum".