As a result of oversupply, pig prices have plummeted this year and there may be no hope of a short-term recovery.

It has been reported that it has reached an eight-year low. In terms of the decline in pig prices this year, in the final analysis, the oversupply of live pigs is caused by too much stock. Secondly, after the continuous rise in pig prices in the past few years, it is reasonable for pig prices to enter the channel of cyclical decline.

Due to the continuous rebound in pig prices in the past few years, it can also be regarded as a bull market for raising pigs. As a result, a large number of farmers flocked into the relatively narrow breeding industry, which directly led to the current dilemma of pig supply exceeding demand. This is also the biggest source of the decline in pig prices.

At present, the aquaculture industry in China has gradually changed from traditional decentralized farming to large-scale aquaculture. The advantages of large-scale farming are obvious. first of all, the cost has dropped a lot. According to statistics, the cost of large-scale farming is about 5.5 yuan per catty. However, in this depressed breeding year, the breeding cost of small bulk farmers is still 6 yuan per jin. This price advantage also enables aquaculture enterprises to alleviate the market impact more effectively in this depressed industry.

In addition, what many farmers can not compare is the capital investment. In the current market, I am afraid that many farmers will be unable to bear the market risk due to the lack of capital quota.

But what we should pay attention to is that although small bulk farmers are out, it is not too big for the current aquaculture market, because now the market has gradually turned to aquaculture enterprises, and the supply of the market has been controlled by large aquaculture enterprises. And because these enterprises have a strong ability to resist the impact of the market, they will not be in place immediately in the process of falling market prices. after all, it is not easy to eliminate this part of production capacity.

In addition, another major problem is the cyclical price adjustment of the aquaculture industry. The periodicity of the aquaculture industry is very strong. As the breeding cycle of live pigs is relatively long, the adjustment of pig prices is much longer. In a press conference held by the Ministry of Agriculture and villages in April, it was also stated that there was an oversupply of pigs this year, and it was hoped that farmers would grasp the market and put out the column in a timely manner. This can be regarded as an official statement.

From the current supply and demand situation, pig prices will continue to hover at the bottom, may not rise in the short term, and according to the trend of pig prices in recent years, pig prices can get out of the current predicament in 2019 is a good outcome.

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