When will the corn auction volume increase again in May to stop the decline?

For the judgment of the future price of corn, let's take a look at the selling auction launched on April 12. We may be able to see some clues from it.

From April 12 to 13, the first round: a total of 6.67 million tons were auctioned, with a total turnover rate of 89.66%. Subsequently, the second and third round of auctions were held one after another, and the turnover rate of the third round of auctions dropped to 60% on April 27th. The auction is still not over, followed by the release of 8 million tons in May. Judging from the situation that the auction has just ended, the transaction volume is 5.28 million tons, with a transaction rate of 66%. The overall transaction rate is declining, which also shows that the market is already rich in grain and is not as eager for corn as it was at the first round of auction.

After four consecutive rounds of release, the supply and demand pattern of the corn market has gradually become more relaxed. As a result, the price of the corn market has also gradually declined. The overall price of corn fell by 4% in April, and this May's first auction has ended. Can the future market be reversed? It is still difficult to revitalize agriculture through science! Let's talk about my personal opinion.

Policy grain is sufficient

Judging from the four times of temporary storage of corn market that we have counted above, the transaction rate has gradually shrunk and the transaction rate at the bottom price is gradually increasing, which shows that the current market is no longer so urgent for corn. The tight situation of corn supply and demand in the market has been alleviated obviously. At the same time, with the mass flow of auction policy grain into the market, the supply of corn in the market will be more relaxed. Naturally, with the reversal of the relationship between supply and demand, it is only natural for the corn market to bear a heavy load.

Farmers sell grain when the weather gets warmer

At present, it has entered May, the weather is gradually heating up, and the hot and humid summer weather is also a big problem for grain storage. As a result, the grass-roots surplus grain will also be gradually released, so that the market supply will be more relaxed. Of course, the quality of the surplus grain in the hands of farmers is much better than that of pre-storage and auction. the surplus grain in the hands of these farmers is expected to flow to the breeding industry, the impact of stored grain is relatively small, and the situation of high quality and high price will continue.

Feed is limited

As we all know, pig prices have continued to decline this year, and they have come below the cost line of pig farming. In the case of falling pig prices and sluggish consumption, farmers actively make up the hospital is relatively low, and even many farmers have gradually chosen to withdraw from the aquaculture industry due to the cost of capital. And large-scale aquaculture enterprises also take the initiative to reduce the stock in order to reduce breeding costs. As a result, feed consumption is restrained and the way out of corn is not smooth.

Future judgment

With a strong desire to unstock corn this year, the auction in May will not be the end. It is expected that there will be another wave of grain sales before wheat harvest. In this way, the pattern of loose corn food supply in the market will be further continued, and in the case of a general recession in the aquaculture industry this year, the way of feeding has also greatly reduced sales. After the announcement of the imposition of tariffs on American agricultural products and the announcement of the anti-dumping ruling on sorghum against the United States announced by the Ministry of Commerce on April 4, it is good for domestic corn, but the degree of benefit is still very limited. after all, China imported no more than 3.6 million tons of corn in 2017, which is not as large as an auction.

As far as the current market is concerned, the pattern of supply and demand has been relaxed, and the pressure on corn prices nationwide is relatively large, so it is difficult to improve the market situation in May.

The above is the view that science promotes agriculture to share for you, hope to be helpful to you.