What is the trend of pig prices in the second half of 2018?

Before May Day, Science Xingnong had analyzed and predicted the price of pigs on May Day. At that time, it was said that there would be a "fall in every festival" on May Day, and it was true that May Day did not have the rising market of the festival that most farmers expected. Due to the continuous decline in pig prices, many farmers are even ready to withdraw from the pig market, not only from the decline, but also from the rising cost of breeding, which is even worse for the breeding industry.

Friends who are familiar with the pig price market in the past two years may know that the pig price market in 2016 and 2017 is not bad, and many farmers expand their breeding capacity. However, what is directly caused by this is the imbalance between supply and demand in the pig market, which is inevitable, just like the price of garlic this year. Since the Spring Festival in 2018, pig prices have fallen rapidly, falling by more than 20%, and many farmers sigh that pig prices have fallen from an eight-year low.

Now 1/3 has passed in 2018. Judging from the current market situation and the market supply and demand situation, scientific development of agriculture believes that pig prices are difficult to be optimistic in the second half of the year, but there is a high probability that pig prices will gradually stabilize. Here are a few specific reasons.

The supply of live pigs exceeds demand

Due to the relatively good pig market in the past two years, a large number of farmers have switched to the pig farming industry, which directly leads to the current imbalance between supply and demand. Now, with the continued downturn of pig prices, many farmers have withdrawn from the aquaculture industry, but the current market supply and demand still has not improved. Reflected in the market, it is the price of pigs. at present, the decline of piglets is far less than that of live pigs, which also shows that many farmers are still actively preparing goods and are full of expectations for pig farming in the future. Therefore, this relationship between supply and demand will not improve in the short term.

Farmers withdraw from the market slowly

It has just been mentioned that due to the current low pig prices, farmers have begun to withdraw from the market. In addition, on April 4 this year, the Ministry of Commerce reported that the imposition of a 25% tariff on American soybeans also directly led to a sharp rise in domestic feed prices. Within a week of the announcement, the price of soybean meal rose by 5%. However, although many small farmers are withdrawing from the market due to financial problems, this is a gradual process that will not be reversed quickly and will not change much for the current market. After all, the periodicity of pig farming is too large, and it is unlikely to reverse in the short term.

The downside of pig price is limited.

The current pig price is basically stable around 5 yuan, and this price has been maintained for nearly a month. Although the market price has also fallen below 5 yuan, it quickly rebounded to the 5 yuan range line, and from the perspective of pig investment cost, the cost price of most farmers is 6 yuan per jin, and the current price has generally fallen out of the farmers' cost line, and the current price is also basically stable in the 5 yuan range, so scientific agricultural development believes that the current market price decline space is already very limited.

Based on the above analysis, I think that the current market situation has basically stabilized, the downward space is very limited, and the market in the second half of the year will gradually reverse the stable market after farmers gradually reduce production capacity.

The above is the view that science promotes agriculture to share for you, hope to be helpful to you.