Chinese Academy of Sciences: grain output in 2016 is likely to be reduced.

The forecasting Center of the Chinese Academy of Sciences released China's economic forecast for 2016 in Beijing. The Chinese Academy of Sciences estimates that the sown area of grain in 2016 will be about 112.1 million hectares, a decrease of 1.2 million hectares, or about 18 million mu, compared with 2015. Without serious natural disasters, food production for the whole year of 2016 is likely to be reduced in the case of moderate or moderate deviations in the weather.

The report shows that although China's grain production suffered varying degrees of natural disasters in 2015, especially the persistent high temperature and drought in summer and autumn in some main autumn grain producing areas (such as Northeast and North China), through efforts, it has increased production for the first time in a row for the first time since the founding of New China. The country's total grain output reached 1.24287 trillion jin, an increase of 28.82 billion jin, or 2.4%, over 2014; the sown area of cotton in 2015 was 56.984 million mu, a decrease of 10% compared with 2014, and the total national cotton output was 5.605 million tons, a decrease of 574000 tons or 9.3% compared with 2014. Total oil production is expected to be about 35.7 million tons in 2015, an increase of about 1.5 per cent over 2014. Looking forward to 2016, the forecasts are as follows.

1. It is expected that the sown area of grain in China will be greatly reduced in 2016. It is estimated that the sown area of grain in 2016 will be about 112.1 million hectares, a decrease of 1.2 million hectares, or about 18 million mu, compared with 2015. Without serious natural disasters, food production for the whole year of 2016 is likely to be reduced in the case of moderate or moderate deviations in the weather. It is expected that the output of summer grain will maintain a steady and slight increase, while the output of autumn grain may be greatly reduced. It is initially estimated that China's grain output will be about 30 billion jin lower than that in 2015, and the national grain output in 2016 is expected to be about 1.213 trillion jin.

2. It is estimated that the sown area of cotton in China will continue to decrease by about 15% in 2016. Under normal weather conditions, production will also decline further.

3. It is expected that the sown area of oilseeds in China will increase slightly in 2016, in which the sown area of rapeseed decreases and the sown area of peanuts increases. If the weather is normal in the later period, it is expected that the oil will still increase production.

The main reasons are as follows:

First, in 2016, China's grain production not only has favorable conditions, but also faces the severe test of some unfavorable factors. The favorable conditions are, first, the increase in the area of autumn and winter wheat sown in 2015 and 2016, and the neat emergence of winter wheat, laying the foundation for an increase in summer grain production; second, the central government and provinces and cities continue to increase support for agriculture and grain production. However, there are also some unfavorable factors, such as a sharp drop in grain prices, a substantial decline in farmers' income, and the re-emergence of the problem of "difficulty in selling grain." these factors will seriously dampen the enthusiasm of farmers to grow grain.

Second, the sown area of cotton is expected to continue to decrease, and production will further decline under normal weather conditions. The main basis is as follows: first, cotton prices for the whole year of 2015 showed an obvious downward trend, although the decline was smaller than that in 2013 and 2014. In addition, cotton planting costs, especially labor costs, have increased rapidly, and the income of cotton farmers has decreased; second, cotton downstream yarn enterprises have a weak demand for cotton, which can not effectively boost the demand for cotton. Third, the global cotton supply is loose, economic growth in emerging economies is weak, demand has not improved significantly, and international cotton prices are expected to remain low in the short term.

Third, it is expected that the sown area of oil crops will increase slightly in 2016, and it is expected that oil crops will increase production under normal weather conditions. The main basis is as follows: affected by the policy adjustment such as the cancellation of rapeseed purchase by the state, the decline in rapeseed prices and planting efficiency in 2015, farmers' enthusiasm for sowing rapeseed in autumn and winter has been seriously frustrated; peanut prices have increased significantly since 2015, increasing farmers' enthusiasm for planting peanuts. The sown area of peanuts is expected to increase to a certain extent in 2016.