From the perspective of industrial carrying capacity, 450 million of the reform of agriculture, rural areas and farmers is the rest and recuperation of agriculture, rural areas and farmers.

At present, the reform of agriculture, rural areas and farmers is faced with two major problems: one is who will ensure food security and who will farm in agriculture. The second is how to increase the economic income of the farmers. With the progress of agriculture, one mu of land can not carry so much labor force, and a large number of farmers go to work in cities. Sandwiched between the two is the rural problem, mainly how to protect the ecological environment.

The carrying capacity of the industry is like a person carrying a burden, which can only carry 100 jin, and there is an upper limit for the number of employed people. 20 mu of arable land needs only one labor force, and one more is a waste. This is the case with the demand for labor, and so is the input and output of other aspects. After saturation, the more input, the worse the efficiency. In this regard, while accelerating urbanization, agricultural mechanization and farmers' professionalization, we should consider and design policies from the perspective of the upper limit of agricultural industry carrying capacity.

So, how many people in our country can make a living in the agricultural industry? Although there is no unified calculation path and method, it can be calculated, distributed and implemented according to the red line of 1.8 billion mu of cultivated land, or the labor carrying capacity of the land, that is, the labor force needed for staple grain, animal husbandry, vegetables, aquatic products and so on.

450 million is the limit of "recuperation" for agriculture, rural areas and farmers.

China's agricultural industry is mainly planting and aquaculture, plus a part of agricultural products processing industry, rural tourism.

In terms of planting industry, if measured by the red line of 1.8 billion mu of cultivated land, the area that can be cultivated by per capita labor force in plain and dam areas has reached 200mu, that in hilly areas has exceeded 20 mu, and that in mountainous areas has exceeded 10 mu. From this, it can be estimated that the cultivation of the three staple grains (rice, wheat and corn) requires less than 100 million labor force; if the annual income of farmers working in cities is 30,000 yuan, in order to obtain the same income, an agricultural labor force needs to cultivate about 20 mu. According to this accounting, the most suitable labor force for the agricultural industry is about 100 million.

In terms of animal husbandry, in 2011, the working population in pastoral areas was more than 6 million, and that in semi-pastoral areas was more than 11 million, totaling more than 17 million. In recent years, the working population of animal husbandry has been basically maintained at this scale.

In terms of aquaculture, in 2014, the aquaculture area was more than 120 million mu, and the fishery labor force was more than 20.3 million. In terms of vegetables, fruits and flowers, in 2014, the planting area of vegetables reached more than 300 million mu, and the number of people employed in the flower industry was more than 5.25 million.

As there is much overlap in the labor force involved in planting and aquaculture, according to the latest statistics of the agricultural sector, it is preliminarily estimated that the total amount of labor actually needed by the agricultural industry is about 150 million. Together with the "old farmers" who have lost their labor force and the "small farmers" who are ready to take over, the population that can accommodate about 450 million people in rural areas.

The unbearable chaos of agricultural industrialization

The industrialization of agriculture in China, as a new mode of production and management different from traditional agriculture, has been practiced for more than 20 years. However, there are still many problems in the industrialization of agriculture in our country, not only the phenomenon of "cheap grain harms the farmers", but also the expensive grain often hurts the farmers. The key reason is that the carrying capacity of agricultural industrialization is not fully considered, and there is a deviation in the process of policy design and policy support.

First, the support policy is unstable. For a period of time, many professionals believe that "farmers grow and support what they make money" is caused by the lack of scientific planning and accurate market information. Now it seems that more reasons may be due to the improper role of the "visible hand" to some extent.

Take the pig farming industry as an example, "subsidies are like a shot in the arm": when subsidies are given, the stock of pigs increases sharply, and pork prices plummet; when subsidies are stopped, the stock of pigs decreases sharply, and pork prices soar. Now, the "pig cycle" has even been shortened from the past year or two to about half a year. The problem seems to be caused by "small" and "scattered", but in fact it stems from the improper pig subsidy policy.

In the market, the main factor affecting pork prices is not retail investors, but the new large ones. On the other hand, policy subsidies are available for a while and stop for a while, and only large households can follow the trend in time. It can be seen that only by stabilizing the pig subsidy policy can the problem of pork price "roller coaster" be solved. The reason is simple: if the subsidy policy is stable and does not make much money, experienced pig farmers will adhere to it for a long time, and inexperienced ones will not join hastily. This is true not only for pig farming, but also for dairy farming, including many fruits and vegetables, cash crop cultivation and so on.

Another case is the farmers' cooperative. According to statistics, from the formal implementation of the Law on Farmers' specialized Cooperatives in July 2007 to the end of October 2015, the number of farmers' cooperatives in China has grown to 1.479 million. According to the author's years of grass-roots research, there are many people who blindly follow the trend, and even many of them are fake cooperatives aimed at policy subsidies. The reason is still related to the instability of subsidy policy and support policy.

Second, there is a deviation in supporting the project. In recent years, in order to increase farmers' income, relevant ministries and commissions have to formulate a number of preferential policies for the development of livestock or cash crops every year. However, because the support project is single, the policy goal is single, and the preferential conditions are rigid, the support project is "good-looking but not delicious". For example, policy-oriented agricultural insurance has not yet been carried out in cattle, sheep, and poultry breeding; live livestock and poultry cannot be mortgaged, resulting in weak anti-risk ability; and livestock and poultry manure disposal investment is large, which is difficult for farmers to bear, and so on, which greatly reduces the effectiveness of the policy.

Especially in some grass-roots counties, cities and towns, cases of greed for perfection in agricultural industrialization based on the pursuit of political achievements can be found everywhere: planting cooperatives, as little as thousands of mu, as many as tens of thousands of mu, hundreds of thousands of mu; breeding cooperatives, as little as thousands of ends, as many as ten thousand million. If the executive order cannot be pushed, economic means will be used to implement a wide range of reward and subsidy policies. In the end, the policy goal of agricultural industrialization often goes too far.

For example, a county in the west was once a nationally famous "hometown of tangerines". In recent years, due to the degradation of tangerine quality, the local government departments thought that the development prospect of the tea market was promising, so they issued a policy: taking administrative villages as units, those who are required to plant more than 10 mu or less than 50 mu within the year will be given a bonus of 100 yuan per mu according to the actual planting area, and 150 yuan per mu according to the actual planting area. The resulting blind development has led to a drop in the price of tea, unable to find a market, resulting in a variety of sequelae of "hurting farmers".

Third, there are many lack of support links. Developing the agricultural product processing industry and strengthening the county economy are the main contents of many No.1 documents of the central government. However, in the process of specific design and deployment of these policies in various departments, most of the support has been dispersed, resulting in a policy result similar to "sprinkling pepper noodles".

For example, in 2012, the central government launched a subsidy program for the initial processing of agricultural products, allocating 500 million yuan a year (which increased to 600 million yuan in 2014). In the form of awards, we will support farmers and cooperatives in the construction of primary processing facilities such as storage cellars, cold storage and drying rooms. However, this subsidy policy falls to grass-roots farmers and cooperatives in counties and cities, either without a penny or too little to help. This has also become the fundamental reason why many grass-roots counties and cities are keen on industrial development and let the agricultural industry "let nature take its course."

Rational arrangement of agriculture, rural areas and farmers with the thinking of bearing capacity

For the economic development of one region and one place, industry needs to plan according to local conditions, and modern agriculture also needs to plan according to local conditions; urban development needs to consider the carrying capacity, and rural development also needs to consider the carrying capacity. Arranging agriculture and farmers with the thinking of dynamic change of carrying capacity can not only solve the difficult problems related to the development of agricultural industrialization, such as land ownership, contract right, management right, income right and so on. even the policy dilemmas related to rural development, such as household registration, urban issues, "who will farm the land" and so on, will be easily solved.

Specifically on the issue of agricultural industrialization, it is urgent to use the thinking and reasonable planning arrangement of agricultural carrying capacity.

First, the idea of the whole industry chain. The industrialization of agriculture involves more than half of the government departments. Therefore, it is necessary for government departments to eliminate the obstacles of the old system, weaken departmental barriers and management responsibilities, break industry boundaries and fragmentation, and gradually move towards management integration in accordance with the special requirements of the agricultural industry. The most effective policy should be placed on the "three ends":

First, the planting and breeding end. The overall planning of funds for comprehensive agricultural development, financial funds for agricultural development, and funds for poverty alleviation and development are concentrated on the main producing areas, rather than inefficient subsidies in the form of "sprinkling pepper noodles"; second, the processing side. At present, the project subsidy is mainly storage, fresh-keeping and drying, focusing on the main potato producing areas and giving consideration to the dominant producing areas of fruits and vegetables. On the contrary, staple grain and animal husbandry projects are not only not subsidized, but also taxed. In this regard, we should formulate overall policy solutions based on long-term and stable policies; third, the ecological environment. Centering on maintaining the balance of agro-ecosystem, we should make full use of the favorable opportunities of "new rural construction" and "whole village promotion" to speed up unified planning, comprehensive deployment, and integration of funds to do a good job in the planning and layout of rural industrialization and organize its implementation.

Second, the idea of direct supply of production and marketing. According to the author's investigation and observation at the grass-roots level for many years, the family farm of "community supporting agriculture", or "new small farmers", is becoming a new mode of modern agricultural development. This model has been established: first, with the acceleration of urbanization, people are getting farther and farther away from the land, and "community support agriculture" provides consumers with convenient access to land; second, with the rise of the middle-income class, a considerable number of people have upgraded from "full" to "eat well", and "community support agriculture" has a large number of potential consumer groups. Third, because food safety accidents occur from time to time, consumers pay more and more attention to their own health, and "community support agriculture" caters to this need.

At present, this model conforms to the general trend of the integrated development of urban and rural areas in our country, connecting agriculture, rural areas and farmers, and connecting the needs of personalized and diversified urban residents with agriculture, rural areas and farmers. while making agriculture get rid of natural and man-made disasters, rural areas get rid of environmental pollution, farmers get rid of the shackles of land, it has formed a pluralistic and harmonious agricultural industrialization new business type. It deserves the attention of relevant policy departments.