There are great prospects for the reform of wheat "filling board" on the agricultural supply side.

The Central Rural work Conference held from December 24 to 25, 2015 put forward the "supply-side structural reform of agriculture" for the first time to guide the agricultural and rural work in 2016 and the 13th five-year Plan period. The meeting pointed out that efforts should be made to strengthen the structural reform on the supply side of agriculture, improve the quality and efficiency of the agricultural supply system, make the supply of agricultural products sufficient in quantity, variety and quality in line with the needs of consumers, and truly form an effective supply of agricultural products with reasonable structure and strong guarantee.

The production of high quality wheat needs "mending short board"

The Central Rural work Conference made clear the direction of agricultural supply-side structural reform: at present, we should attach great importance to eliminating inventory, reducing costs, and making up for deficiencies.

The meeting pointed out that to promote agricultural supply-side structural reform, we must always adhere to the bottom line of ensuring national food security, and must not break through at any time.

It is necessary to protect grain rations such as rice and wheat, protect arable land and production capacity, ensure grain production in major producing areas, especially in core producing areas, and ensure basic self-sufficiency in grain and absolute safety in grain rations.

The author believes that the urgency of wheat in "destocking" is not as prominent as that of corn, but there is still much to be done in the "make-up board". China has the first wheat output in the world, but there is still a rigid import demand for high-quality wheat every year.

China's minimum purchase price policy is only based on the grade difference of quality, but does not focus on the variety price difference between high-quality wheat and common wheat, which is difficult to reflect the high quality and high price, which leads farmers are more inclined to plant high-yield common wheat.

With the strengthening of the effect of "common wheat expelling high-quality wheat", farmers increase the planting of high-yield common wheat and reduce the planting of high-quality wheat, which is not conducive to the adjustment of grain planting structure, and leads to the reverse elimination of high-quality varieties. Therefore, it is suggested that China should introduce relevant policies that can encourage farmers to plant high-quality wheat in order to promote the production and development of high-quality wheat in our country.

It is expected that the domestic wheat price will be stable in the later stage.

Monitoring data show that wheat prices in major domestic producing areas fluctuated steadily and slightly in the week to December 30, 2015. Among them, the entry price of ordinary wheat in Jinan, Shandong Province, 2390-2400 yuan / ton, and Suzhou, Anhui Province, 2400-2420 yuan / ton, were the same as last week; Xingtai, Hebei Province, 2380-2400 yuan / ton, down 10 yuan / ton; Zhoukou, Henan 2340-2370 yuan / ton; Taizhou, Jiangsu 2400-2440 yuan / ton, all rose 20 yuan / ton.

With the approach of the Spring Festival, the reserve capacity of milling enterprises in some areas has increased, resulting in a shortage of local grain sources, and milling enterprises have raised wheat prices slightly, but the sales situation of milling enterprises is still lower than expected, and the overall trend of wheat prices is still stable.

At present, there are many negative factors in the wheat market, despite the support of the pre-festival peak season, it is expected that it is still difficult for wheat prices to rise in the later period. Regardless of temporary storage inventory, the current market grain sources are mainly concentrated in the hands of traders and grain depots.

According to what the author has learned, the progress of grain depot shipment in 2015 is relatively slow. A large grain depot in Shandong said that rotation grain had basically sold out in the same period last year, while the current proportion of wheat rotation was less than 10%. In addition, the storage capacity of self-trading grain also increased significantly compared with the previous year.

In previous years, the situation of large purchases by flour mills before the festival did not happen. in addition to the decline in downstream flour demand, the selling of wheat by some traders also caused flour mills to reduce their purchases from grain depots.

In addition, farmers still have some surplus grain in their hands.

Since the new wheat went on the market in 2015, the trend of wheat prices has not been ideal, and the pace of grain sales by farmers is slower than in previous years, and there may be a peak in grain sales before the Spring Festival.

In the case of grain depots and farmers' wheat inventory increasing over the previous year and traders selling, and considering the sluggish downstream demand, it is expected that there is little room for domestic wheat prices to rise in the later period, but it does not rule out that regional grain sources are tight and wheat prices rise slightly.