Surplus of soybean imports 40 million tons of northeast soybean sales in a dilemma

2016 is the "International year of beans", but the influx of imported soybeans into the Chinese market has made Chinese soybeans "lost their way".

According to Chinese customs statistics, China imported 7.39 million tons of soybeans in November 2015 and 72.57 million tons from January to November, an increase of 15.4 percent over the same period last year. In this case, the market of domestic soybeans is blocked.

In 2015, imports are expected to exceed 80 million tons and supply more than 92.35 million tons. " According to Wang Xiaoyu, deputy secretary general of the Heilongjiang Soybean Association, according to the proportion of population, China should consume 52.25 million tons of soybeans, while the supply is 40 million tons more, which will of course lead to nowhere to sell domestic soybeans.

"Soybean is a highly market-oriented variety of agricultural products. From the perspective of supply and demand, the cost of Chinese soybeans is indeed higher than that of foreign countries, and the market will drive overseas soybeans to enter continuously." He Jun, an associate researcher at the Foreign Economic Cooperation Center of the Ministry of Agriculture, told the Daily Economic News, "from a global perspective, the expansion and deep ploughing of overseas industrial chains should be encouraged."

More than half of the soybean farmers do not sell well.

The domestic soybean market is carrying on a gluttonous cycle of "getting fatter and fatter".

With the marked increase in vegetable oil consumption, imports have also increased sharply, while China's soybean self-sufficiency rate has reached an all-time low.

From 2002 to 2013, China's annual vegetable oil consumption doubled, from less than 13.7 million tons to 28.75 million tons in 2013, while the self-sufficiency rate of soybeans shrank to less than 15 percent, according to Zhu Jing, dean of the School of Economics and Management at Nanjing Agricultural University.

At the same time, China's external dependence on soybeans is rapidly "soaring". According to the 2014 Soybean Market Annual report, in the past six years, China's external dependence on soybeans has exceeded 80%. In 2013, the external dependence of soybeans reached about 86% in 2013.

In 2014, China imported 73 million tons of soybeans, accounting for about 20% of the world's soybean output, which has exceeded the proportion of China's population in the world's population. According to Wang Xiaoyu's calculation, it is estimated that in 2015, imports exceeded 80 million tons and supply exceeded 92.35 million tons. In 2014, the world population was 7.1 billion, China's population was 1.36 billion, and China accounted for 19.1% of the world's population. In 2013, China consumed 270 million tons of soybeans. According to the proportion of the population, China should consume 52.25 million tons of soybeans, while the supply is 92.35 million tons, 40 million tons more.

The excess flow of imported soybeans has crowded out the sales channel of northeast soybeans which have just been listed on the market.

At present, new beans in Heilongjiang Province have been on the market for two months, while soybean farmers in Heilongjiang Province only sell about 40% of the soybeans, and more than half of the soybeans are in the hands of farmers, and most farmers are watching.

"at present, the cost of domestic soybeans is high, and their competitiveness is weaker than that of imported soybeans, and the current soybean trade is not regulated by means such as quotas. It is analyzed from the policy trend of 'changing the mode and structure' of domestic agriculture. The government only regulates and controls soybeans in the market through target price reform." He Jun told the Daily Business News, "therefore, soybean is a highly market-oriented variety of agricultural products. under such circumstances, we should look overseas and encourage the expansion of overseas industrial chains. Enterprises are encouraged to enhance their competitiveness by means of both investment and trade. Trade is the main focus now, and investment should be encouraged in the future. Through the combination of international and domestic markets, we should cultivate the industrial chain. Compete with giants such as Yihai Kerry in the global fair market. "

The bear market of soybean continues.

2015 was a disastrous year for soybeans, and this momentum is likely to continue into 2016.

In 2015, soybeans had a bumper harvest worldwide, and import prices fell. As of the end of November, soybeans in the main CBOT contract closed at 882cents per bushel, down 133cents per bushel from the same period last year, or 13.1 per cent.

In China, domestic soybeans, which have just lost temporary storage support, have been besieged by cheap soybeans, and prices have been depressed and the market is not smooth. As of the end of November, the purchase price of third-class soybeans in the production area scale was 3600 yuan to 3700 yuan per ton, down about 900 yuan / ton compared with the same period last year, a drop of 19.78 percent.

Analysts pointed out that due to the continuous improvement of soybean acreage and yield per unit area in the world's major soybean producing countries, the United States and Brazil, as well as good weather for soybean growth, global soybean production continues to hit new highs. Global soybean supply is very abundant, and global soybean end-of-term inventory and global soybean inventory consumption ratio remain at an all-time high. The huge supply pressure is difficult to release, which has become the leading factor to suppress the trend of domestic and foreign soybean market in 2015.

Huatai futures analysts believe that unless Brazil encounters extreme weather leading to a sharp drop in production in 2016, the increase in global soybean end-of-term stocks will continue. In the context of loose global supply, Meidou's own export demand is poor, and the Treasury-to-consumer ratio may continue to rise in 2016, so it can be concluded that Midou will run weakly.

According to the judgment of the agricultural industry chain analysis and early warning team of the Ministry of Agriculture, the global soybean supply is still sufficient in 2016, and as imports continue to increase and domestic oilseed production continues to decline, the self-sufficiency rate of edible oil may fall to about 25% in 2016.