The Northeast Japonica Rice Market maintains the Stability of strong Rice and weak Rice

Recently, the northeast japonica rice market has maintained a stable operation, and the characteristics of strong rice and weak rice are prominent. Different from the sharp rise of long-grain rice, under the background of strict storage, round-grain rice performance is relatively stable, only low-moisture rice has an increase of about 2-3 points compared with last month.

From Heilongjiang, a major grain-producing province, at present, the purchase price of round-grain rice with moisture content less than 16% in Jiamusi, Jixi, Jian Sanjiang and other places is concentrated at 2900-2940 yuan / ton, and the purchase price of about 18% moisture is around 2840 yuan / jin. Considering the abundant supply of rice in the market in the marketing area, while the price difference between northeast rice and Jiangsu rice is still beyond a reasonable range, the price of ordinary varieties of japonica rice is still lack of upward momentum in the long term.

The intensity of acquisition weakens and the processing profit is low.

As the price of rice in the market has not been raised in 2015, the purchase price listed in the grain depot is still 1.55 yuan / jin in the third class of the national standard and 1.57 yuan / jin in the second class. On the other hand, the moisture content of the annual rice output in 2015 is generally on the high side, and the actual storage price after deducting water is slightly lower than that of the previous year, especially the grain depots have strict requirements on the quality of storage. In previous years, a small number of traders purchased raw grain with high moisture at low prices in the hands of farmers, and the phenomenon of sending it to grain depots in accordance with the third-class grain standards no longer exists, and the reduction in profits makes traders lack the incentive to raise prices and buy.

Strong and weak rice also limits the willingness of processing enterprises to enter the market. at present, the ex-factory price of round rice with low moisture in Heilongjiang is concentrated at 4340-4440 yuan / ton, and the price with slightly higher moisture is 4180-4200 yuan / ton. however, the price of white rice in Taizhou, Nantong, Xinyi and other places in Jiangsu is only 3840-3900 yuan / ton. In the field of ordinary japonica rice, Jiangsu rice is still dominant in the southern sales area. under the background that processing profits are low and market transactions are mainly dominated by policy grain acquisitions, ordinary rice varieties are expected to lack upward momentum.

Document No. 1 will focus on supply-side reform

It is reported that the 2016 Central Committee No. 1 document, entitled "opinions of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council on implementing the New concept of Development and speeding up Agricultural Modernization to achieve the goal of achieving a well-off Society in an all-round way," will be promulgated by the end of January or early February in accordance with usual practice.

Under the background of high grain stocks, upside-down prices of agricultural products at home and abroad, but it is difficult for farmers to increase their income, the focus of work in the new year will tend to promote structural reform on the agricultural supply side.

At present, the reform ideas of the relevant departments on the three aspects of "removing inventory, reducing costs and making up for deficiencies" are basically clear. to put it simply, removing inventory is to speed up the consumption of huge national treasury stock and speed up the transformation of grain processing; cost reduction is to reduce production costs and improve agricultural efficiency and competitiveness by developing appropriate scale operation and reducing the unreasonable use of chemical fertilizers and pesticides. To make up for the deficiency board is to strengthen the weak link of agricultural supply such as agricultural infrastructure and increase the production of agricultural products in short supply in the market.

2016 the protective price of rice may be the same as the previous year.

Rice, as a rations, is a key variety to maintain national food security, and rice will continue to implement the protective price purchase policy in 2016.

However, since 2008, the price of supporting the market has been raised year after year, which makes the price of rice and the state reserve stock high. In 2015, the protective prices of early indica rice, middle and late indica rice and japonica rice are 1.36 yuan / jin, 1.38 yuan / jin and 1.55 yuan / jin, respectively.

Compared with 2007, the protection price of early indica rice increased by 0.58 yuan / jin, an increase of 82.86%. Middle and late indica rice rose 0.59 yuan per jin, an increase of 81.94%. The cumulative increase of japonica rice was 0.73 yuan per jin, an increase of 97.33%, which nearly doubled. The protection price directly pushed up the cost of purchasing rice, and the domestic rice price naturally "went up."

But on the other hand, due to the loose global food supply, Thailand, Vietnam, Pakistan, India and other exporting countries face fierce competition, but the international rice price is in a downward channel, resulting in a huge price gap between domestic and foreign rice. In the context of the national policy shift to supply-side reform, the sustained increase in rice prices may have become history.

Considering that the protective price of rice and wheat was introduced in October, the lowest purchase price of third-class wheat in the national standard is still 1.18 yuan / jin. Referring to the policy correlation of rice and wheat, the author thinks that the possibility that the rice price in the new year will be the same as that in the previous year is very high, and it is estimated that the lowest purchase price of early indica rice, middle and late indica rice and japonica rice may still be 1.35 yuan / jin, 1.38 yuan / jin and 1.55 yuan / jin, which is the same as the standard of last year.