The autumn grain of 2014 has a good start and has a heavy task of fighting against disasters.

A peasant proverb says, "there will be drought and flood on July 15th and harvest on August 15th." At present, there is still less than a month of drought and waterlogging, and there are still two months to go before the autumn grain is ripe. At present, the foundation of autumn grain production is good, but compared with previous years, moderate or above El Ni ñ o events are likely to occur this year, and major diseases and insect pests of migration and epidemic are showing a recurrent trend, all of which pose severe challenges to agricultural disaster prevention and mitigation.

Autumn grain is off to a good start

The area of autumn grain across the country has increased steadily this year, with an estimated increase of more than 6 million mu, and the growth of autumn grain in most areas is better than that of the previous year, especially corn, potatoes, soybeans and other dryland crops.

On the vast black land, corn is jointing. Chen Mingwen, a villager from Central Village of Huayuan Town, Lindian County, Heilongjiang Province, planted 50 mu of corn using drip irrigation under plastic film this year. He goes to the fields every day to check the growth of corn. Now, the corn stem thick root is strong, already has a person more than tall, the growth is gratifying.

There are 1.9 million mu of corn in Lindian County, most of which are sown by field direct seeding or film mulching cultivation. Wang Shenghua, deputy director of the county agricultural technology extension center, said that corn is growing well, mainly because farmers have planted varieties with a longer growth period and plastic film mulching cultivation techniques, which can recover the accumulated temperature of 150 to 200 degrees Celsius and increase the growth period by 7 to 10 days; at the same time, topdressing is more timely.

Heilongjiang is the largest grain-producing province in China, and the planting area of rice and corn, the province's high-yield crops, has increased this year. At present, part of the plastic film-mulched corn in the province has heading and bearing sticks, and the growth is better than in previous years due to high temperature, Rain Water's feet, scientific field management and other factors.

Zeng Yande, director of the planting Department of the Ministry of Agriculture, said that the national autumn grain production situation is good this year. There are two grounds to support this judgment: first, the area has increased steadily. According to the agricultural regulation of the Ministry of Agriculture, the area of autumn grain in the country is expected to increase by more than 6 million mu this year. This is the most important basis for winning a bumper harvest of autumn grain. Second, the growth is generally good. During the spring sowing this year, the meteorological conditions are good, the soil moisture is good, and this year, the key technologies are in place, the sowing quality is high, and the seedlings emerge neatly. After spring sowing, there is a good match between light, temperature and water in most parts of the country, and the growth of autumn grain in most areas is better than that of the previous year, especially corn, potatoes, soybeans and other dryland crops.

Data from Henan Province, China's second grain-producing province, show that the sown area of autumn grain has increased steadily this year. It is estimated that the sown area of autumn grain this year is 71.2 million mu, an increase of nearly 900000 mu over the previous year. There was large-scale rainfall in early June in the whole province, and all localities seized the favorable opportunity of better soil moisture during summer sowing to sow seeds in time. In most areas, the sowing time of corn was 2 to 3 days earlier than that of the previous year, and all of them realized the right time for sowing. At present, Henan summer corn is growing well. The summer corn in the southeast has about 10 leaves, which is close to the big trumpet stage, and the growth period is 2 to 3 days earlier than that of the usual year. The northern interplanting corn has 10 to 11 leaves, which is in the stage of big trumpet mouth, while the direct seeding corn has 8 to 9 leaves, and the growth period is 4 to 5 days earlier than usual.

Wei Mengguan, deputy director of the Department of Agriculture of Henan Province, said that there is a large area for the promotion of improved varieties and methods this year. Zhengdan958, Xianyu 335, Yuhe 988 and other leading maize varieties account for about half of the area of maize in the province. The promotion of key technologies such as ectopic sowing of corn seed and fertilizer, stubble and stubble sowing, comprehensive mechanization and so on has been strengthened. The planting density of corn is mostly more than 4000 plants per mu, and the mechanized sowing rate of corn reaches 89%, 3% higher than that of last year.

The task of disaster resistance is heavy.

In the next two months, we should pay close attention to meteorological disasters. There may be low temperature and overcast rain in the south, autumn drought in the north, and early frost in the northeast. At the same time, great attention should be paid to major migratory and epidemic diseases and insect pests such as rice "two migration" pests, rice blast, corn borer, armyworm and so on.

"at present, there are still two months to go before the large-scale harvest of autumn grain, and we still have to go through many hurdles such as floods, summer and autumn droughts, high temperature and heat damage, early frost in the northeast, and cold dew winds in the south. It is all the more important to note the adverse effects of this year's El Nino incident. " Mei Xurong, head of the expert group on disaster prevention and mitigation of the Ministry of Agriculture, said: we should attach great importance to two points. First, meteorological disasters. El Nino events will induce extreme abnormal weather. This autumn, there may be low temperature and overcast rain in the south, autumn drought in the north, and early frost in the northeast. This increases the probability of summer and autumn drought, high temperature and heat damage, northeast early frost and southern cold dew wind, which seriously threatens the production of autumn grain. Second, diseases and insect pests. The high temperature and humidity in summer and autumn is the period of high incidence of diseases and insect pests. The El Ni ñ o event will induce frequent fluctuations of the western Pacific subtropical high and easily form typhoons, which will lead to major migratory and epidemic diseases and insect pests such as rice pests, rice blast, corn borer, armyworm and so on.

In fact, since the beginning of summer, there is too much precipitation in most parts of the country, which is prone to diseases and insect pests. According to the monitoring of the national crop diseases and insect pests network, the peak and amount of rice planthopper and rice leaf roller in the southern rice region were significantly more than those in the same period last year, and rice blast was prevalent in northeast, southwest, Jiangnan and other places. The proportion of female armyworm is significantly higher than that of normal years, and the epidemic risk of potato late blight is high. At the same time, affected by the El Nino phenomenon, drought has emerged in the southern part of North China. Although it is not serious, drought is likely to occur in the middle of summer and autumn.

Luo Lizhi, a researcher at the relocation Pest Laboratory of the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, said that China's technology for the prevention and control of most diseases and insect pests is very mature, and pest control technologies, agricultural machinery, and professional prevention and control organizations in various places have developed well, providing a guarantee for prevention and control. the key is to monitor and forecast, with emphasis on timely spraying. The national regional monitoring and forecasting system for major crop diseases and insect pests is becoming more and more perfect, and there is sufficient experience in promoting professional unified control, inter-regional joint prevention and control, and emergency prevention and control in various localities. This year's goal is to achieve a prevention and treatment rate of 100% in the hardest-hit areas, and the overall loss of diseases and insect pests is expected to be controlled within 5%.

Technology is the key.

Autumn grain production should highlight the technology in place on the basis of the implementation of the area, and the key point is to do a good job in creating high yields and tackling key problems in the model of increasing production, promote a balanced increase in production in a large area, and strive to maximize the good momentum of autumn grain production into the reality of reaping a bumper harvest.

Autumn grain accounts for more than 70% of the annual grain output, how to do a good job in autumn grain production? Zeng Yande believes that on the basis of the implementation of the area, we should highlight the technology in place. First of all, we should highlight the word "snatch" to ensure the implementation of the area. The autumn grain area falls to the ground, and less than 10% of it is double-cropping late rice. It is necessary to guide all localities to speed up the progress of early rice harvest and transplant stubble in time, so as to achieve the right time for late rice transplanting and win time for safe panicle filling; at the same time, highlight the word "tube" and strive to increase per unit yield. In addition to routinely organizing experts to formulate technical plans for sub-regions, crops and seasons, and to do a good job in guiding services, the key point is to do a good job in the establishment of high yield and the mode of increasing production, so as to promote balanced production in a large area.

In addition, the word "resistance" should be highlighted to promote safety and maturity. We should focus on two areas: one is the northeast region, which should focus on preventing autumn drought and early frost, focusing on "accumulating temperature and promoting early maturity", promote early birth and rapid development, speed up the childbearing process, and ensure safe maturity. The other is the southern rice region, which should prominently guard against high temperature and heat damage, low temperature, overcast and rain, and cold dew wind, scientifically regulate and control fertilizer and water, promote normal growth and development, ensure safe panicle filling, and highlight the word "prevention" to realize "insect mouth grabs grain." The key is to grasp two links, one is the monitoring and early warning of diseases and insect pests, the encryption of the monitoring of diseases and insect pests, and the timely release of early warning information. The other is to carry out unified prevention and control, and at the same time to carry out joint prevention and control, mass prevention and control in key areas, so as to curb the outbreak of diseases and insect pests.

Experts said that China has a typical monsoon climate, with high climate variability, frequent and recurrent disasters, winter and summer, and the alternation of dry and wet between the north and the south are normal monsoon climate laws, and grain production often faces disasters such as droughts, floods, and freezing. China has explored a series of technical routes for disaster prevention and mitigation: to prevent early frost in Northeast China, it is necessary to "shovel many times + timely topdressing + comprehensive prevention and control", and to prevent cold dew wind in the south, it is necessary to "reasonably select varieties + promote early with fertilizer + adjust temperature with water". To prevent diseases and insect pests, it is necessary to "disease and pest monitoring + unified control + green prevention and control". Whether these key technologies can play a role, how much role they can play depends on whether they can enter the village and whether they can go to the fields.

In this regard, the Ministry of Agriculture has organized and launched a "campaign to seize a bumper harvest of autumn grain" and strive to maximize the good momentum of autumn grain production into the reality of another bumper harvest. The "Autumn Grain bumper Harvest Action" will aim at reducing disaster production and minimizing disaster losses, and will take promoting growth, promoting early maturity, preventing drought and flood, preventing high temperature and heat damage, preventing low temperature and cold damage, and preventing diseases and insect pests as the technical path. highlight key areas, major crops, key links, do a good job in the implementation of disaster prevention and mitigation measures, and win the initiative of autumn grain harvest.