Analysis on the Development trend of urbanization in China

Urbanization is a process in which the population is concentrated to cities and towns and thus promotes the development of cities and towns. This process is accompanied by major changes in the country's economic structure, social structure, mode of production and way of life. Urbanization is a huge systematic project. The development of urbanization is related to the overall situation of China's modernization. Urbanization is the common trend of the development and progress of human society. However, the process, characteristics and models of urbanization in different countries and regions are obviously different.

Generally speaking, social and economic development is the internal driving force of urbanization development; natural foundation and ecological environment play an important fundamental role in urbanization development; urbanization pattern is an important part of socio-economic spatial structure; urban-rural relationship is the most important interdependence between the country and the region.

On the driving Force and Mechanism of large-scale urbanization in China

In recent years, China's rapid economic growth has promoted large-scale urbanization. Among them, the export-oriented economy plays a great role in promoting the urbanization of coastal areas, especially in the development of big cities, metropolises and super metropolises. For a long time, urbanization has developed rapidly due to the implementation of the development model of "low-end products" production and the policy of investment-driven economic growth. But there is a problem with continuity. The implementation of two large-scale economic stimulus packages has brought increasingly serious structural problems. The development model of "world factory" driven by investment and the production of low-end products has maintained the long-term and rapid growth of China's economy. In recent years, the national economy has finally ushered in a new stage of "steady growth and structural adjustment", but from 2011 to the first half of 2013, China's urbanization is facing the risk of a greater leap forward. The 18th CPC National Congress and the Central working Conference on urbanization made a major adjustment to the strategic policy of urbanization, that is, the core of urbanization is the urbanization of "people" and strive for progress in the midst of stability.

Its profound background reflects the objective law of the development of urbanization. Achievements have been made in large-scale urbanization since 1996. Urbanization has promoted the internationalization of China's economy. The overall national strength has been greatly improved, making it the second largest economy in the world. But at the same time, there are a series of outstanding problems.

First, the speed of urbanization is too fast, and the urbanization rate is falsely high. During the Ninth five-year Plan period, the urbanization rate increased by 1.7 percentage points per year in three years, with an average annual growth rate of 1.4 percent during the 10th five-year Plan period. Since the Eleventh five-year Plan, the rate of urbanization has remained high, with an average annual growth rate of 1.3%, that is, the annual increase in urban population is more than 18 million. In 2012, China's urbanization rate reached 52.6%. However, the actual population urbanization rate is only 35%. 260 million migrant workers across the country are not citizenized, and their living conditions such as living conditions are very poor, which is called "semi-urbanization". The development of small and medium-sized cities is slow, and some small and medium-sized cities decline. The hollowing out of rural areas is serious.

Most migrant workers live in "urban villages", simple houses or basements on the edge of the city, and the living environment is simple and poor. In Nanjing and Hangzhou, for example, 45% of migrant or migrant workers live in low, dark sheds or simple houses on the edge of the city's suburbs.

Second, economic growth and industrial support are not compatible with high-speed urbanization. The rapid growth of China's national economy and large-scale industrialization have promoted the rapid development of urbanization. However, in recent years, the growth rate of the national economy has slowed down, the adjustment of industrial structure is facing increasing pressure, and the increase of jobs can not meet the needs of urbanization. According to the rate of urbanization in recent years, the urban population has increased by about 18 million per year, resulting in a corresponding increase of more than 12 million jobs.

At present, the increase of urban employment population has become more and more dependent on the development of the tertiary industry. However, due to the huge population base, the development space of the tertiary industry is also difficult to continue to provide the required employment scale. In recent years, the employment problem in all kinds of cities is very serious. Although the number of jobs increases by more than 8 million every year, some of these jobs are not stable.

A large number of facts clearly show that the process of urbanization must be coordinated with economic growth, especially with the development of industrialization. To plan the reasonable process of urbanization in the future, the most important thing is to scientifically evaluate the supporting capacity of the industry. It is necessary to lead the process of urbanization according to the supporting capacity of industrial development and the possibility of increasing jobs. Urbanization without industrial support is not sustainable. The development of urbanization without the support of strong industrial development will also slow down. After a long period of rapid growth, China's national economy is entering the development stage of "steady growth and structural adjustment". In the structural adjustment, it will be very difficult for energy, heavy chemical industry and traditional manufacturing industry to expand on a large scale, and new competitive brands and large-scale industrial chains need to be formed. A variety of factors will reduce the economic growth rate. In addition, the development of structural adjustment and innovation will also change the coefficient of elasticity of employment growth. All this will slow down the growth of jobs.

The urbanization of our country needs to follow the principle of gradual and orderly progress. The development level of urbanization should be consistent with the transformation of urban industrial structure and the ability to create new jobs, with the actual ability of cities and towns to absorb rural population, and with the carrying capacity of soil and water resources and environment. The level of urbanization in China should be gradually improved according to the absorptive capacity of urban industry, the supporting capacity of infrastructure, the carrying capacity of resources and environment, and the degree of improvement of urban management. Therefore, the speed of urbanization in China can not be too fast.

The large-scale and rapid development of urbanization has made the support of natural resources face serious difficulties.

The continuous large-scale occupation and enclosure of land have consumed too much cultivated land resources. with the "semi-urbanization" of the population, an average of 2.6 million farmers have lost their arable land every year in the past decade. In the past ten years, many cities have carried out large-scale land enclosure by indulging in various types of "new areas".

Urban construction covers an area of rapid and large-scale expansion. The per capita land occupation of the city will soon reach a high level of 110,130 square meters. This land occupation index is the level of most developed countries whose per capita cultivated land resources are several times or even more than ten times higher than those of our country.

Large-scale industrialization and urbanization have caused a comprehensive shortage of water resources supply in 15 provinces, cities and regions in northern China, and there is often a serious problem of water supply in many cities and towns in the south. There has been a water crisis in some areas.

The most serious problem of water use is in the north of our country. The 15 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities in the northern region account for 60.4% of the country's total land area, and the population and GDP accounted for 41.9% and 42.8% of the country's total in 2011, respectively. The average annual total amount of water resources in northern China is 525.9 billion cubic meters, accounting for only 18.6% of the country's total. In 2011, the total water consumption reached 243.4 billion cubic meters, accounting for about 40 per cent of the national water consumption in that year. After more than half a century of large-scale water resources development, the northern region is facing the ultimate challenge of relying on "open source" to solve the problem of water shortage.

In view of this, great emphasis should be placed on the implementation of "resource-saving and environment-friendly" urbanization. The per capita resources in China are very limited, especially the shortage of cultivated land resources and fresh water resources. China's basic national conditions should be fully taken into account in the planning and construction of all kinds of cities. Even in the time of modernization, our people will still live a life of frugality. Urban per capita land occupation, per capita living energy consumption and fresh water consumption can not follow the per capita indicators of the western world, especially Americans.

A lower target must be adopted for per capita land occupation and per capita living energy consumption in cities and towns. Since the 1990s, the per capita comprehensive land occupation of cities in China has increased rapidly to 110,130 square meters. The per capita comprehensive land occupation index of most small towns is as high as 200,300 square meters. China cannot follow the path of the spread of urbanization in countries such as the United States and Australia. It is suggested that 70,100 square meters per capita should be used as the suitable range of comprehensive urban land use in China.

As small and medium-sized cities generally do not have large-scale public facilities (stadiums, transportation hubs, municipal squares, etc.), future planning and construction can further reduce the scale of land occupation. In general, the average energy consumption per capita in mega-cities (except a few international big cities) should be about 2 tons of standard coal per year, and that in small and medium-sized cities should be significantly less than this target.

According to the basic national conditions of our country, it is also necessary to appropriately reduce the standard of urban per capita land use and establish the economic density index of urban land use and the intensity index of regional land development.

Heavy burden of environmental pollution and ecological service function

Since 1996, large-scale urbanization is one of the main causes of more and more serious environmental pollution. The rapid expansion of large and medium-sized cities in coastal areas, coupled with the "world factory" of low-end product production, has caused outstanding environmental problems. Small and medium-sized cities in the central and western regions have become pollution sources in many areas because of large-scale development and processing of resources.

While the traditional organic pollution is becoming more and more serious, the pollution of toxic and harmful substances begins to appear. More and more serious environmental pollution leads to serious degradation of ecosystem and frequent occurrence of ecological disasters. The neglect of rural environmental problems makes the environmental problems in rural areas of our country extensive and prominent. China's environmental pollution has begun to enter the ecosystem from the surrounding environment and further immersed into the food chain began to affect human health. The regional scope of environmental pollution extends to the main population, industrial agglomeration zones and urban agglomerations in the country.

The supply of urban infrastructure, resources and environment can not adapt and match. Cities require large-scale electricity, high-quality energy and large-scale centralized water sources as support, and the per capita energy consumption, water consumption and concentrated garbage emissions are much higher than those in rural areas. At present, most cities in China are short of water, and most of the drinking water sources are polluted. The phenomenon of garbage siege is prominent, and the rate of harmless treatment is very low. Although the investment of governments at all levels in urban infrastructure such as water supply and drainage and environmental protection has increased year by year, the gap in the supply and security of resources and environment has not narrowed accordingly. From another point of view, this shows that the speed of urbanization in China is too fast.

The impact of ecologically fragile areas on the development of metropolitan areas and industrial densely populated areas is becoming more and more prominent. The development of industrial and urban agglomeration areas needs to be supported by ecological services on a larger scale. Therefore, the big city and the vast surrounding areas constitute a whole with ecological services and ecological compensation as a link. The scale of urbanization is restricted by ecological and environmental carrying capacity.