It is impossible for China to import large quantities of meat in the future.

Recently, some media published an article saying that the surge in demand for meat in China will change the pattern of global feed grain trade and set off a "global tsunami". The report pointed out that due to the rapid increase in China's meat consumption, China's meat imports will soar 35 times by 2050, which will lead to many problems such as resource depletion and environmental pollution, which will have a serious impact on the international grain market. it even has a significant impact on farmers, public health and the environment all over the world. Taking into account domestic production, consumption, policy, science and technology, and other factors, the market early warning experts of the Ministry of Agriculture pointed out that this view is unscientific and that it is impossible for China to import large quantities of meat in the future.

Does China need to import a lot of meat? With the increase of meat production capacity and the slow growth of consumption, it is impossible for China's meat imports to increase significantly in the future.

China's meat production has grown rapidly in the past decade and will continue to grow rapidly in the future, according to market early warning experts from the Ministry of Agriculture. Meat consumption will continue to increase, but consumption growth will gradually slow down. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, China's total meat output in 2013 was 83.73 million tons. Judging from the average annual growth rate of meat, in the past 10 years, pork is 2.7%, poultry is 3.8%, beef is 2.2%, and mutton is 2.7%. Although it will be subject to ecological resources and the level of industrial development in the future, it is not difficult to maintain the same rate of increase. With the gradual promotion of urbanization and the steady increase of residents' income, the demand for meat of Chinese residents will continue to increase. However, as the meat consumption of Chinese residents has reached a relatively high level, the sensitivity of meat consumption to the increase of income has gradually decreased, as the concept of balanced diet and healthy consumption is deeply rooted in the hearts of the people, meat consumption can no longer grow as fast as in the past, and meat demand may turn to eggs, milk, aquatic products and so on.

At present, China's meat import is mainly for variety and structure adjustment. For example, the vast majority of China's pork products are imported from pigs, and poultry products are mainly imported from chicken feet, chicken miscellaneous and other by-products. The increase in meat imports in China is mainly due to the import of beef and mutton.

According to the comprehensive analysis of experts, the growth of meat production in China is faster than that of consumption, and imports are generally controllable. Take pork as an example, pork has always been the largest meat consumption in China. Experts predict that China's per capita pork consumption will remain at about 53 kg by 2050, with a total pork consumption of 79 million tons. With the improvement of pig breeding efficiency in China, 48 million sows will be able to breed by 2050, which can fully meet the future pork consumption demand, and the proportion of pork import will be about 1%. In short, with the increase of meat production capacity and the slowdown of consumption growth, China's meat imports are unlikely to increase significantly in the future, especially pork and poultry consumption will be mainly domestic supply, beef and mutton needs a small amount of imports to fill domestic demand.

Isn't China's meat production environmentally friendly?

-- actively promote cleaner production, reduce the consumption of land and water resources by large-scale farming, and prevent environmental pollution caused by livestock wastes.

At present, China's livestock industry is facing the pressure of rising cost, epidemic disease, environmental protection and so on. The Chinese government attaches great importance to the development of ecological and environment-friendly animal husbandry, and successively issued the "National Animal Husbandry 12th five-year Plan", "National Beef and Mutton production Development Plan (2013-2020)", "National Grain-saving Animal Husbandry Development Plan (2011-2020)", "regulations on Prevention and Control of pollution from large-scale breeding of Livestock and Poultry" and genetic improvement plans for livestock and poultry breeds such as dairy cows, live pigs, beef cattle and broilers. The aim is to improve the ability of meat self-sufficiency through variety breeding, feeding technology, scientific management and other ways, alleviate the contradiction between food supply and demand, ensure the effective supply of animal products, and further promote the sustained and healthy development of grain-saving animal husbandry.

At the same time, the government should strengthen the development and utilization of forage resources such as forage grass and straw, vigorously develop grain-saving animal husbandry, ensure that the development of grain-saving animal husbandry does not compete with people for grain or land with grain, pay attention to the protection of ecological environment, vigorously promote the ecological breeding mode of the combination of agriculture and animal husbandry, actively promote clean production, and promote the sustainable and healthy development of ecological animal husbandry. Reduce the consumption of land and water resources by large-scale farming, increase the supervision and guidance of environmental protection in the process of large-scale aquaculture, and prevent environmental pollution caused by animal husbandry wastes.

Are Chinese companies merging foreign capital only to meet domestic demand?

-- rational allocation of resources in the market economy, improving the efficiency of resource utilization, and better opening up the international market

In recent years, with the rapid development of China's economy and the rapid improvement of the comprehensive strength of Chinese enterprises, overseas mergers and acquisitions of Chinese enterprises are the result of rational allocation of resources in the market economy, giving full play to China's capital, technology and management advantages. promote the development of relevant enterprises in other countries, play a role in improving the efficiency of resource utilization, but also in order to better open up the international market.

Foreign-funded Yum Catering Group has acquired Chinese food and beverage companies such as Little Sheep, and no one says that foreign investors are buying because they can't meet domestic needs. Shuanghui International's acquisition of Smithfield is an inevitable behavior for enterprises to participate in global competition and expand the global market when they develop to a certain stage, which is a realistic choice to comply with the trend of internationalization of China's agricultural development. In the future, with the improvement of the strength of Chinese enterprises, this kind of M & A will show a growing trend.

Will China's growing demand for meat set off a "global tsunami"?

-- China's grain output is expected to continue to grow in the future, and with the transformation and development of animal husbandry, the growth rate of feed grain demand will significantly slow down.

China's food security strategy is to ensure the absolute safety of rations and allow some fodder grains to be imported. The vast majority of imported feed grains are soybeans, and soybeans are not included in the internationally accepted grain range. At present, China's import of corn is still managed by a quota system, and high tariffs are levied outside the quota, so it is impossible to import corn in large quantities.

Under the support of national policy and science and technology, China's grain output is expected to continue to grow, and there is little gap in grain imports. Moreover, with the continuous progress of science and technology, livestock and poultry feed conversion rate has been further improved, the growth rate of feed grain demand will significantly slow down. Judging from the current situation, the development of animal husbandry in China has entered a period of transition, the expansion of production has slowed down, the growth of residents' consumption of livestock and poultry products has slowed down, so the consumption demand of feed grain can not grow too fast in the future. China's population accounts for 20% of the world's population. Judging from the current global grain (grain) trade volume, China's grain imports account for only 4% of the world's share. The impact of China's imports on the world has been improperly magnified by a small number of people. it should be said that China's huge consumer market has contributed to stimulating the production and export of foreign agricultural products and increasing farmers' income, rather than competing for grain and land with the world.