Livestock and poultry industry chain meets the good opportunity of layout, prosperity rebounds, breeding stocks rise generally.

The price of livestock and poultry industry chain rose significantly at the end of July. Historical statistics show that whenever pig prices continue to rise significantly the stock prices of aquaculture stocks will be asked to climb another tall building. On the whole, there is a clear decline in the stock of breeding sows, at the same time, the domestic macro-economic turn, the medium-term positive factors are enhanced, and it is expected that the supply and demand pattern of pigs will improve and the boom will pick up obviously in 2015. At the same time, according to the trend, the "pig price reversal" can not be falsified before the 2015 festival and also provides a safe time window for livestock and poultry chain investment; according to the market capitalization space, some pig leaders currently exist in the upward space, but the risk-return ratio of poultry stocks and feed vaccines is higher. Therefore, the livestock and poultry industry chain is worth actively increasing, and the opportunity of livestock and poultry chain will also spread to feed and veterinary drugs as well as other non-leading breeding stocks.

Prosperity rebounded and aquaculture stocks rose generally.

By the end of July and early August, pig prices across the country continued to rise, with lean pigs rising to 14.17 yuan / kg, pork prices rising to 21.32 yuan / kg, and piglet prices falling to 24.85 yuan / kg. At present, the pig price crosses the break-even point, and the big pig deviates from the normal level most from July to August, and the supply shortage is the most obvious, and it is also the stage of the fastest rise in pig price. Following the substantial rise in pig prices, coupled with the domestic macroeconomic recovery boost, the industry medium-term positive factors significantly enhanced, aquaculture stocks also ushered in a general rise in the third quarter.

In terms of investment rhythm, the current investment opportunity belongs to the second wave of investment opportunities, that is, the general rising stage. In fact, this round of livestock and poultry breeding stock investment rhythm is divided into two parts. One is the sharp decline in the stock of sows from April to July, which leads to a strong reversal expectation, mainly driven by expectations, which is shown as the leading rising stage of dragon stocks; the other is to realize the rising rate of pig prices after July, focusing on the performance pull-up, showing as the current general rising stage.

Among them, in the first stage, because the capital market has great differences on whether the pig price is reversed or not, investors are more likely to invest in pig farming stocks, and other pig farming stocks do not have obvious performance. Now in the second stage, aquaculture stocks need to meet the expectations of rising pig prices, and only when pig prices begin to rise and continue to perform, will aquaculture stocks have a step-by-step rise, that is, the stock price will be used as a platform after a rapid rise, waiting for further stimulation of pig prices. At this time, some people who are not expected to reverse their expectations will also operate in stages, and the main targets are mainly non-leaders with a relatively small increase in the previous period. Therefore, in the current livestock and poultry stock investment in pig prices across the cost line of the substantial rise in the second wave of the rising market, non-leading flexibility may be greater.

The prosperity of veterinary drugs in the beneficial aquaculture industry rebounded quarter by quarter.

After the second quarter, the domestic aquaculture industry ushered in the growth of the stock column and the improvement of profits. Benefiting from the improvement of these two major driving indicators, the prosperity of the domestic veterinary drug industry has also improved quarter by quarter. On the one hand, the rebound in stock will lead to a rebound in demand for veterinary drugs; on the other hand, after farmers make profits, the demand for some high-end vaccines and veterinary drugs will rise, and the cost of prevention and control of pigs and individual feathers will increase month-on-month. As a result, the overall demand of the veterinary drug industry has rebounded significantly, and the performance of relevant veterinary drug companies has shown a trend of month-on-month improvement.

It is estimated that the scale of the domestic veterinary drug industry will reach 1000-150 billion yuan in 2020, and its growth is mainly driven by the increase in the penetration rate of vaccines and veterinary drug preparations brought about by the increase in the proportion of large-scale farmers, the increase in the value of the vaccine industry brought about by the gradual transfer of government bidding vaccines to the market vaccine, and the substantial increase in the penetration rate of Chinese veterinary medicine health products. In the future, the market scale of domestic pet preparations and vaccines should be 10-15 billion yuan. And the market scale of domestic aquatic drug seedlings in the future is 150-20 billion yuan.

In addition, the cooperation and mergers and acquisitions of domestic veterinary drug leaders are also in the ascendant. After the listing, Ruipu Biology has successively acquired or jointly established a number of veterinary drug enterprises. Hubei Longxiang, Inner Mongolia Dadi, Tianjin Seri Peptide, Beijing Bledley and so on mainly focus on expanding the product line of raw materials, Chinese veterinary drugs, polypeptides and pet medicine vaccines, while Hunan Zhongan and Shanxi Ruixiang pay more attention to sales areas and channels. Dahuanong successively acquired Foshan Canon to enter the field of parasite vaccine, and set up a joint venture with Pearl River Fisheries Research Institute to enter the field of aquatic medicine vaccine; Tiankang Biological Holdings Jilin Shuguang entered the field of bird flu vaccine.

In the context of the overall warming of the livestock and poultry industry chain, the layout opportunities of individual stocks in the industrial chain are also quietly on the stage. Specifically, as far as the investment target is concerned, the medium-term core position is still recommended to give priority to poultry stocks, some non-leading pig breeding stocks as a supplement, locally do more livestock and poultry chain market in the third quarter. Because in this pig cycle, the flexibility of poultry stocks is greater than that of pig industry chain, and the performance certainty will also be greater. At present, it is in the early stage on the right side of the reversal stage, and with the recovery of all links of the whole industry chain, the industry will show a state of simultaneous rise. the overall risk-return ratio is better. In addition, in view of the fact that the prosperity of the pig industry in 2015 is better than that in 2014, poultry farming has also reversed, and the boom will continue to last until 2015, so the demand of the veterinary drug industry is expected to continue to improve, which is worth paying attention to.