Drought has a limited impact on China's grain import situation.

Shi Xiaoguang, a 35-year-old grain grower in Bozhou, Anhui Province, stood under the heavy rain he had been waiting for for two months, but he was not happy.

"the solar terms have passed, no matter how to irrigate at present, the general trend of reducing the production of corn and soybeans has been decided." Shi Xiaoguang beckoned the growers to weed and administer medicine, hoping to do everything they could to make up for the loss.

In Shidian Village, Dayang Town, Qiaocheng District, Bozhou City, the famous agricultural expert Shi Xiaoguang contracted more than 1300 mu of land. However, the drought this summer worried his harvest. "large tracts of corn do not produce ears, or the ears are pitifully small. It is estimated that the harvest of 1000 mu of corn land will be at least 30 per cent. " He said.

Data from China's Ministry of Agriculture show that 12 provinces and regions, including Hebei, Shanxi, Shandong, Henan, Anhui, Hubei and Shaanxi, have experienced drought to varying degrees this summer. China imported 11.34 million tons of grain and cereal flour in the first seven months of this year, an increase of 80.7 percent over the same period last year, according to data released by the General Administration of Customs on Friday.

The drought in a large area, especially in some major grain producing areas, will aggravate the pressure of the surge in China's grain imports and arouse great concern in society.

Autumn grain accounts for 70% of China's annual grain output. It is understood that this round of drought coincides with the trumpet stage of most corn in Huang-Huai, North and Northwest China, rice in the booting stage, rapid growth and development of crops and large water demand, and the drought has hindered the crop growth process in some areas.

The grain output of Henan Province accounts for 1/10 of the national output. According to data provided by the agricultural department of Henan Province, in mid-to-late July, the drought-affected area in Henan increased at a rate of 1.6 million mu a day, of which 1/4 were severe drought areas-even if these fields ushered in abundant rainfall, it is also basically in a state of no harvest.

In Jilin Province, another important commodity grain base in the country, the precipitation in ten major grain-producing counties is the least since 1951, the drought is serious, and some plots even have no harvest.

However, Li Guoxiang, a researcher at the Institute of Rural Development of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, believes that judging by many factors, the impact of this summer's drought on China's grain import situation is limited, and the market should not worry too much.

He pointed out: first of all, drought occurs to varying degrees every year in China. From a nationwide point of view, this year is not the year with the worst drought, and for the country's 1.6 billion mu grain acreage, heavy drought areas do not account for a large proportion. And rice, the main crop of autumn grain, grows well in the non-disaster areas of the south. If dealt with properly, there is still hope for a bumper harvest of autumn grain throughout the year.

Statistics from the Ministry of Agriculture show that the sown area of autumn grain has increased by more than 6 million mu this year, and coupled with the increase in the area of high-yielding crops, it is roughly estimated that this alone will increase the production by about billions of jin.

"second, corn is the main crop in some areas with severe drought, while China has abundant corn stocks. At present, even if the national corn production cannot be increased this year, it can basically guarantee the market demand. " Li Guoxiang said.

The summer grain that has just had a bumper harvest has laid a good foundation for China to ensure food security. According to data released by China's National Bureau of Statistics, the country's total summer grain output in 2014 was 136.6 million tons, an increase of 4.75 million tons or 3.6 per cent over the previous year.

"prices in the international market are much lower than those in the domestic market, which is one of the main reasons for the sharp increase in China's grain imports, rather than a sudden increase in imports because of a large grain gap." Cheng Guoqiang, a researcher on grain trade at the Development Research Center of the State Council, said.

Since 2010, China's grain prices are all higher than FOB prices in the international market. In order to reduce costs, some Chinese enterprises have increased their grain imports.

A careful analysis of the growth of imported grains shows that a large number of barley and sorghum, which are lower than domestic prices, are imported for feed processing. With the improvement of Chinese living standards, the demand for imported "strong gluten and weak gluten" wheat from abroad to meet the demand for processed bread, cakes and high-quality food has also increased significantly in recent years.

On the one hand, the import volume is expanded, on the other hand, the domestic inventory cannot be digested. Agricultural experts pointed out that this is a new situation facing China's food security. In order to solve this dilemma, it is urgent to adjust the grain collection and storage policy and straighten out the grain price mechanism.

"specifically, it is necessary to form a mechanism in which grain prices are determined by the market, so as to promote the balance between domestic and foreign markets. The state no longer interferes in grain prices, but gradually establishes a target price system for agricultural products, subsidizing low-income consumers when the grain market price is too high, and subsidizing producers according to the price difference when the grain market price is lower than the target price, so as to effectively ensure the income of farmers. " Cheng Guoqiang said.

He said that China has already experimented with new price and subsidy mechanisms for soybeans and cotton in some places. When the conditions are ripe, the scope of reform will be gradually expanded.