Have a clear understanding of the situation and find the right position to speed up the transformation and upgrading of the chemical fertilizer industry

The current macro situation is very grim, a considerable part of China's industrial overcapacity, the slowdown of national economic growth, the impact on the chemical fertilizer industry has been shown: coal prices, product prices, market downturn. At present, the situation of the chemical fertilizer industry in Anhui is mixed, with more difficulties and problems. Generally speaking, it can be summarized as follows: overcapacity, market downturn, strict policies and declining efficiency. Specifically, it involves eight aspects: the sharp increase in new production capacity, the slow growth of demand, and the market downturn; serious homogenization of products, intensified price war, limited technological progress, and products with lagging standards; prices and costs hanging upside down, enterprises fighting on their own, exports do not form a joint force; technological innovation capacity is not strong; enterprises are difficult to employ workers, labor costs are greatly increased; enterprise management is not in place, lack of rigorous work style. The market order needs to be improved, fake and shoddy products still exist in the market, especially the phenomenon of nutrient reduction occurs from time to time, the supervision of relevant government departments is ineffective, and the national policy is strict (environmental protection, security, energy, taxation, freight, etc.).

In short, the severe winter in the chemical fertilizer industry has come ahead of schedule, and the competition will be more fierce and lasting. What we need to do is to comply with the law, comply with the trend, find our own position, find our own growth point, and speed up the transformation and upgrading. If the transformation slows down and there is no sense of urgency, it may be very bad.

Speeding up the transformation of the development mode is the guarantee for the sustainable development of the industry

From the perspective of the domestic industry, the trend of overall economic slowdown has become inevitable, and supporting stable economic growth must rely on accelerating transformation and upgrading. Since the reform and opening up, the sustained and rapid development of chemical fertilizer industry in Anhui Province has created miracles and made obvious achievements. However, no matter from international experience, or from our own reality, sustained and rapid development will become history, and a slowdown in economic growth will become inevitable. Extensive, low-cost labor, regardless of ecological, environmental, energy and other factors, no longer exists.

From an international point of view, the development and utilization of shale gas in the United States and cheap oil and gas resources in the Middle East bring cost pressure, which requires chemical fertilizer enterprises to speed up their transformation and upgrading. The "shale gas revolution" in the United States has had a significant impact on the world energy pattern, and 26 consortia in the world and Chinese self-employed main businesses have been involved. The utilization of cheap oil and gas resources in the Middle East will have a great impact on the raw material structure and technical structure of the global petrochemical (including chemical fertilizer industry). Chinese and foreign energy information shows that China has large shale gas reserves. however, restricted by geological structure, development technology and water resources, shale gas development will go through a long process. The production cost of urea and methanol in the United States shale gas is only about 60% of that in China, while the cost in the Middle East is even lower (some are produced by associated gas from oil fields). Urea is only 40% of that in China and methanol is only 30%. Some plants in the United States that have been idle for many years are gradually resuming production recently, and a number of new projects in the Middle East will also be put into production one after another, which is undoubtedly a great challenge to China's chemical fertilizer industry. In the face of the cost pressure brought by international resource elements, the chemical fertilizer industry in China and our province can survive and develop only by speeding up the transformation and upgrading.

According to the current situation of the industry: first of all, the plight caused by serious overcapacity requires the industry to speed up transformation and upgrading. General Secretary Xi Jinping recently profoundly pointed out: "overcapacity will lead to systemic danger and even crisis." Therefore, without speeding up the transformation and upgrading, it will be difficult for the industry to get out of the predicament. Last year, four nitrogenous fertilizer plants in Anhui Province were eliminated because of environmental protection and safety. The second is the constraint pressure of resources and environment, which requires the industry to speed up the transformation and upgrading. The 18th CPC National Congress proposed that building a beautiful China is not only the need to achieve the sustainable development of the Chinese nation, but also the inevitable choice for economic and social development to a certain stage. Since the reform and opening up, China's economy has developed rapidly, but the carrying capacity of resources and environment has dropped to an extremely severe level. All kinds of pollution has made more and more people feel the crisis of living conditions, which has triggered a lot of group incidents. The third Plenary session of the 18th CPC Central Committee also put forward requirements for deepening the reform of the ecological civilization system, emphasizing the establishment of a systematic and complete ecological civilization system and the use of the system to protect environmental resources, the chemical fertilizer industry has unshirkable responsibilities and obligations, otherwise it will be difficult to meet the needs of building a beautiful China. In addition, the ability of technological innovation is not strong, lack of core technology, lack of differentiated products, etc., so the industry must also speed up the transformation and upgrading.

Taking a comprehensive view of the above analysis, we have entered a critical period of transformation and upgrading, and only by speeding up the transformation of the mode of development and effectively solving the long-term accumulated structural contradictions and environmental and resource constraints, can the sustainable development of the industry be guaranteed.

Seize the new opportunity to accelerate the transformation

The state's policy of attaching great importance to agriculture and speeding up agricultural modernization will effectively promote the transformation and upgrading of the chemical fertilizer industry.

First, China's grain has not passed the customs clearance, and the per capita ownership of grain is at the low and middle level in the world.

Second, the overcapacity of chemical fertilizer has perplexed the development of our enterprises, whether urea, ammonium phosphate, compound fertilizer and so on. China is the largest producer of chemical fertilizer in the world and the largest consumer of chemical fertilizer in the world. The utilization rate of urea in China is only 35%, which is still far behind that of developed countries, which means that a large amount of nitrogen fertilizer is wasted every year. Chinese farmers spend about 200 billion yuan on chemical fertilizer, and if the utilization rate is increased by 10%, it will save farmers a loss of 20 billion yuan a year.

The third is the decline of soil quality in China. Due to soil erosion, impoverishment, salinization, acidification and other reasons, the area of land degradation has accounted for 40% of the country's cultivated land, and the quality of land has decreased by 35% compared with the last century.

In view of the above, China has further paid more attention to agriculture, which has greatly stimulated the enthusiasm of farmers to grow grain, and has also brought opportunities for the chemical fertilizer industry to innovate the agrochemical service model and promote the transformation and upgrading of the industry. in accordance with the requirements of modern agriculture (especially the present and future of land circulation), the chemical fertilizer industry has actively participated in the agricultural socialization service system. A comprehensive and supporting professional service chain from fertilizer supply, fertilization, plant protection to technology, research and development, information, and training, providing convenient agrochemical services for end users, and building services for the whole process of agriculture before, during and after production, not only enhance the professional production level of enterprises, but also enhance the production value-added capacity.