How much room for urea prices to rise?

At present, under the influence of export, the domestic urea market gradually tends to be positive, and prices in some areas have risen sharply. Due to the continued good export situation in Shandong, the local industrial fertilizer consumption has gradually increased, coupled with the fact that the products of some manufacturers have been exported to Jiangsu, Anhui and other places, the quotations have been raised sharply last week, with an increase of about 40 yuan / ton. the actual land sales price has also risen to about 1510-1530 yuan / ton, but at present, the turnover of new orders by manufacturers is limited, and exports are still the main market. Prices in the Lianghe region also rose sharply. Hebei is mainly export-oriented, and the local sales market continues to be weak. Only a few manufacturers can supply industrial fertilizer. Last week, the mainstream quotation was raised to 1530 yuan / ton, an increase of about 50 yuan / ton. The local sales situation in Henan has improved, and the purchasing enthusiasm of compound fertilizer manufacturers has increased. Although most of them are early payment orders, they continue to be good, coupled with the export pull. Most manufacturers quote an increase of about 30 yuan / ton, and now the actual land sales prices in Lianghe area are about 1500-1510 yuan / ton. Although land sales in Shanxi continue to be poor, the export situation of most manufacturers is good. The quotation of the outgoing platform has risen to about 1500 yuan / ton, which is about 50 yuan / ton higher than last week, and now the actual platform price is about 1450-1470 yuan / ton. Most manufacturers in Anhui have been in good condition recently. Due to the support of export orders, coupled with the delivery of pre-industrial and agricultural orders, some manufacturers are currently in short supply, and prices have risen sharply by nearly 90 yuan / ton, and now the mainstream quotation has risen to about 1620 yuan / ton. the actual sales price is also about 1600 yuan / ton, but at present most of the manufacturers' orders are pre-payment orders, and the new order turnover is less. On the other hand, the goods delivery situation of some manufacturers in northern Jiangsu is not ideal, export orders are limited, and products from other provinces seize the local industrial market. Although prices have also risen slightly, the overall market transaction is not smooth. Some manufacturers in southern Jiangsu have advanced late rice fertilizer topdressing and fertilizer preparation. However, most local manufacturers give priority to exports, and the price is on the high side. Shandong, Shanxi and other manufacturers send goods to the local area, and the arrival price is about 1630-1640 yuan / ton. The market in Sichuan is still stable, the sales of manufacturers are relatively good, supported by the general environment, coupled with some dealers light storage in advance, prices slightly upward, the mainstream quotation rose to about 1580 yuan / ton, the actual land sales price is still about 1500-1550 yuan / ton.

In the international market, the FOB price of large and small particles has risen sharply in an all-round way. The FOB prices of small particles in the Black Sea and the Baltic Sea rose $9 and $3 / ton to $315-322 and $308-313 / ton respectively, while large Baltic particles rose to $345-$352 / ton, up $15 / tonne from last week. The FOB price of small particles in China has been raised by 14 US dollars / ton to 280-285 US dollars / ton, and the FOB price of large particles has also reached about 330 US dollars / ton. It is understood that at present, the receiving price of small particles in China's ports is about 1600-1630 yuan / ton, and some manufacturers are unwilling to ship goods, and the arrival price of large particles has also risen to 1920-1950 yuan / ton, which is still in a state of shortage.

At present, the domestic urea market is gradually improving, export prices continue to rise, some manufacturers' orders for large particles can last until September, and most export manufacturers for small particles can also deliver goods to the end of August, which means that domestic urea prices will continue to be stable in the short term, and even there is still some room to rise. However, it is understood that due to the soaring prices of large particles, coupled with rising sea freight, the prices of goods taken in the United States have been rising. In order to control prices, urea prices in the New Orleans area of the United States have shown a downward trend. If the United States continues to control, the price rise of large particles may be affected. Generally speaking, due to the sufficient support of export orders for small particles and the gradual recovery of domestic industrial fertilizer, it is expected that urea prices still have room to rise in the short term, and long-term trends need to continue to pay attention to the export situation; for large particles, due to the continued shortage of ports, its prices may continue to rise, and if the international market changes as a result of the US market, its upward trend will be gradually curbed.