Drought pressure CPI corn prices go up meat and egg prices rise

At the beginning of this year, Fang Yonghe, a farmer in Xing Liu Village, Suozhen, Huantai County, bought more than ten tons of corn at a price of 1.04 yuan per jin. But now he has some regrets.

"I regret that I didn't charge more at that time, but now I can't even collect it if I want to." On August 19, when talking about corn prices hitting record highs, Lu was very helpless.

Corn prices have risen continuously since May this year, especially when the drought spread in the country. However, to explore this round of corn price rise, drought factors may be magnified, corn price rise is suspected of speculation.

It should be mentioned that the rise in corn prices has been transmitted to the downstream areas, the aquaculture industry is the most obvious. At present, the price of meat and eggs is rising, and the price of eggs has reached a new high in recent years, which puts great pressure on CPI.

Many experts judge that CPI may rise in August. Obviously, the rise in corn prices is not good news for ordinary citizens.

A record high

Farmers such as Yonghe never expected that corn prices would rise so sharply this year. Just after the Spring Festival, he harvested more than ten tons of corn at the price of 1.04 yuan per jin. He judged at that time that the price would not be high at a later stage.

However, the price of corn surprised most people, including Mr. Yonghe. Since May, corn prices have risen to record highs.

"We have combed out the market trend this year." Liu Dong, a corn analyst at Zhuochuang Information, said in an interview with our reporter on August 19 that the lowest price of corn entering the factory this year is 1.06 yuan / jin, and the highest price has reached 1.40 yuan / jin, and this span is only three months. Corn prices have risen by more than 30%. For food prices, this increase is not a small number.

Yan Yonghe said that now the price of corn of poor quality sent by traders has also reached 1.35 yuan per jin. He didn't even dare to think about such a price before.

Why is the price of corn rising so much? Liu Dong said that due to the economic downturn, the demand for corn in the breeding and deep processing industries in North and East China has decreased, resulting in long-term low corn prices. Correspondingly, the corn market in Northeast China is stronger, and the price is higher than that in North and East China, which makes the corn from these places begin to flow to the Northeast.

"in the past, corn from the northeast region went to our side, but now the grain source has gone back." Liu Dong said that the market supply in North and East China has been greatly reduced. At this time, a severe drought in the country has spread, which has raised expectations of a reduction in corn production. As a result, corn prices skyrocketed.

Liu Dong told reporters that the reduction in market supply is the main reason for the sharp rise in corn prices. At the same time, farmers' sentiment of being reluctant to sell is also very serious.

It is worth noting that drought has become an important driver of the rise in corn prices. "We judge that even if there is a severe drought, there will not be a big decline in corn production." Liu Dong said that the drought affected the market more from a psychological level.

An analyst at a futures company in Zibo said that in June and July, the main contracts of corn futures rose to varying degrees, setting a new record, which also indicates the market's expectation of a rise in corn prices.

A number of market participants said that whenever there is a severe drought, there will always be a rise in the price of agricultural products. In hindsight, the role of drought in the rise in product prices will be magnified. In this round of corn price rise, some dealers hoarded corn, so do not rule out the suspicion of speculation in corn price rise.

B pressure CPI

For the late trend of corn prices, Zhuochuang Information Corn analyst Liu Dong pointed out that now there is not enough power for corn prices to rise sharply again, but it is also difficult to show a major decline.

In more than a month, the new corn will be on the market. "according to the law of previous years, after the listing of new corn, corn prices will fall." Liu Dong said that as the price of corn has reached an all-time high, the price of new corn is expected to be around 1.20 yuan / jin. In previous years, the price of new corn on the market is generally difficult to exceed 1.10 yuan / jin.

It is worth noting that although there is a view that the role of drought in this round of corn rise has been magnified, it is undeniable that the continued drought will put greater pressure on CPI. Academics expect CPI to expand in August.

The latest data show that as of August 11, the area of crops affected by drought in China was 65.89 million mu, mainly distributed in Henan, Inner Mongolia, Hubei, Liaoning, Hebei and other places; 2.35 million people and 2.54 million large livestock suffered from drinking water difficulties due to drought. mainly distributed in Hubei, Henan, Inner Mongolia, Liaoning, Gansu and other places.

According to agricultural experts, during the drought, most of the corn in Huang-Huai, North and Northwest China is in the trumpet stage, and the rice is in the booting stage, which is the critical period of water demand, with rapid growth and large water demand. At present, the drought has hindered the growth process of crops in some areas, and the yield will be affected.

Not only that, market participants also said that the GM storm that began last year has seriously affected domestic corn imports. These factors make some market participants judge that corn prices may continue to be high in the later stage.

As the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day is approaching, industry analysts believe that in August, with the increase in demand for Mid-Autumn Festival stock, the price of meat and eggs is expected to rise slightly.

Some experts judge that in the second half of this year, the prices of agricultural products will remain stable on the whole, and there will be little inflationary pressure, but new price factors such as rising grain prices will increase, which deserves continuous attention. And the new price increase factor may increase, will also make the trend of CPI affected.

The official statement is also worth considering. After releasing the CPI index in July, the National Bureau of Statistics said that the recent heavy rain and dry weather in many parts of China have affected the growth of corn and other crops in some areas, and the expected reduction in crop production will help push up their prices, and this price rise will also be transmitted to pork prices in the near future, which means that the continued severe drought will put pressure on CPI in the coming months.

What will be the performance of corn prices in the future, and what impact will it have on the market? This newspaper will continue to pay attention to this.

C meat and eggs go up

The effect of the sharp rise in corn prices has been shown, and the aquaculture industry has been most directly affected.

According to Luo Yonghe, compared with the beginning of the year, the price of feed per ton has increased by about 200 yuan. "the cost of raising pigs is high." After the increase in costs, the purchase price for live pigs has also gone up, he said. This year, when the price of live pigs was the lowest, it fell to 5.2 yuan per jin, but now it has risen to 7.3 yuan per jin.

According to Tan Yonghe, the rise in pig prices is in line with the rise in corn prices. Pork prices have also risen in the end market.

"it has gone up several times." On August 19, the owner of a chilled meat store in downtown Zhangdian said that the price of refined meat has now risen to 13.5 yuan per jin, up about 2 yuan from this year's lowest price.

"the stock of live pigs is not large." 'now pig traders call him every few days and ask if there are any pigs that can come out of the pen, 'Mr. Yonghe said. Thus it can be seen that the market supply is not sufficient, and the price of corn remains high, so it is difficult for pork prices to fall in the short term.

It's not just pork, but the price of eggs is also crazy. On the 19th, an egg dealer at a farmer's market said that the current price is 6.2 yuan per jin, compared with 5.6 yuan per jin a week ago. "the price of eggs has not come down this year." The above-mentioned dealers said that during the Mid-Autumn Festival last year, the price of eggs reached a new high in recent years, reaching about 5.8 yuan per jin. This year, the price of eggs hit a new high again. He analyzed that the reason for the rapid rise in egg prices is that, first, the market demand has greatly increased with the advent of the Mid-Autumn Festival; second, driven by the rise in corn prices, there has been a significant increase in farmers' breeding costs.

The head of a feed factory in Weifang told this newspaper that before, corn accounted for most of the feed raw materials they left the factory, but now the proportion of corn is gradually decreasing and the proportion of wheat is increasing. "if we return to the previous ratio, we will lose money." He said that now, after increasing the proportion of wheat, the product can achieve a small profit.

What is noteworthy is that the prices of corn and wheat are upside down again. On August 18, a relevant person from a flour production enterprise in Zibo said that the purchase price of wheat was 1. 5%. About 25 yuan per jin.

Wheat prices rose sharply in the second half of 2012. By the end of 2012, the price of wheat exceeded 1.20 yuan per jin. Over the years, the phenomenon that the price of wheat is lower than that of corn has been reversed. But in only two years, the price of wheat was once again surpassed by the price of corn.