Eggs must be carefully controlled to control risks

Egg futures 1501 contracts have fallen weakly recently, and we believe that the current pattern of tight egg supply has not been fundamentally improved. The start of Mid-Autumn Festival stock preparation in supermarkets and the opening of colleges and universities across the country still have a certain boost to egg demand. Early investors' expectations for the decline of eggs after the Mid-Autumn Festival may be too strong. If too many chickens are eliminated, the supply of eggs may still be tight, and there may be demand for replenishment in egg futures.

Cost increase

The cost of layer breeding mainly includes feed cost, chicken cost, disease prevention and treatment fee, labor cost, water and electricity cost and so on. In the composition of the production cost, the most important is the feed fee, accounting for about 60% of the total cost, followed by the chicken fee, accounting for about 15%. 20%. From the perspective of upstream raw material costs, the price of laying hens has risen recently, and the current price of laying hens is 3. 5%. 23 yuan per feather; feed price continues to rise, layer formula price 3.19 yuan / kg. Affected by the rise in breeding costs, laying hen farmers are not active in making up fences. According to Zhihua data, the number of fences for raising chicks in July decreased by 10.2% month-on-month, down 47.8% from the same period last year. From the perspective of breeding profits, the current profit of laying hens has been very rich, reaching 49.48 yuan per feather, which may improve the enthusiasm of farmers to fill the fence to a certain extent. From the perspective of substitute pork prices, pig prices have continued to rise recently. at present, the average price of live pigs in 22 provinces and cities is 15.36 yuan / kg, the average price of pork is 22.76 yuan / kg, and the current price ratio of pig grain is 5.59.

The stock of laying hens is low.

It takes 4 to 5 months for modern laying hens to finish their brooding and breeding period. after 20 weeks of age, they enter the laying period. the laying rate can reach 90% from the age of 6 to 11 months, and the laying rate will drop to 80% at the age of 12 months. the laying peak can generally be maintained for 5 months, and when the laying rate drops below 70% after the 16th month of age, hen breeders begin to eliminate laying hens. The egg production peak, the egg supply is big, the egg price decreases, the egg production trough, the egg supply is insufficient, the egg price rises again. This year, affected by early bird flu, the stock of laying hens is insufficient, and affected by factors such as feed costs and rising prices of laying hens, early layer farmers are not active in making up fences, and the supply of eggs is tighter than in previous years. According to the data on the stock of laying hens, the number of laying hens in July dropped 3.11% from the previous month and 21.48% from the same period last year. At present, there are about 1.13 billion laying hens in the country.

The spot remains high.

At present, there are still about 10 days to go before the Mid-Autumn Festival, the stock preparation of food processing enterprises is gradually over, the demand for egg stock in supermarkets and restaurants is expected to increase, and colleges and universities across the country begin one after another before and after the Mid-Autumn Festival, which will also increase the demand for eggs to a certain extent and boost the spot price of eggs. Recently, boosted by Mid-Autumn Festival demand, egg spot remained high, and there has been a pullback in the past two days. at present, the average price of eggs in all provinces is 5.37 yuan / jin, down 0.09 from the previous month. At present, the average price in the main selling areas is 5.73 yuan / jin, down 0.08 from the previous month, including 5.44 yuan / jin in Beijing, 5.85 yuan / jin in Shanghai and 5.90 yuan / jin in Guangzhou. At present, the average price in the main producing areas is 5.43 yuan / jin, down 0.1 from the previous month, including 5.30 yuan / jin in Dezhou, Shandong; 5.49 yuan / jin in Shijiazhuang, Hebei; 5.40 yuan / jin in Shangqiu, Henan; 5.70 yuan / jin in Nantong, Jiangsu; and 4.90 yuan / jin in Dalian, Liaoning.

It is not appropriate to be overly bearish

From the monthly average price, the price trend of eggs over the years shows an obvious seasonal law. Driven by the decline in production caused by laying hens after summer and consumer demand during the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day, September and October are generally the highest of the year, and January and February are the second highest. Affected by the decline in demand after the Spring Festival and the increase in egg production after the warm weather, March and April are generally the lowest of the year. According to Zhihua data, in July, the proportion of chicken age 0muri 20 weeks accounted for 24. 86%. The proportion of chicken eliminated layers increased compared with that of April, May and June, while the proportion of eliminated laying hens increased. At present, the price of eliminated chickens in China is stable, 5.40-5.90 yuan per jin in Dezhou, Shandong; 5.70-5.90 yuan per jin in Shangqiu, Henan; 5.30-5.50 yuan per jin in Shijiazhuang, Hebei; 5.60-5.80 yuan per jin in Nantong, Jiangsu; and 5.20-5.40 yuan per jin in Dalian, Liaoning.

Generally speaking, the current trend of egg futures is divided, and eggs should not be overly shorted. If the futures price falls sharply again, the risk-return ratio of shorting is not cost-effective, and investors should be cautious in chasing short. However, we still need to pay attention to the spot prices of feed such as corn and soybean meal, as well as the prices of upstream and downstream products such as laying hens and knockout hens. At the same time, we also need to refer to market sentiment, long and short positions and other factors. In addition, the egg period is relatively volatile, it is recommended that investors timely set stop loss stop profit point, light position operation.