The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development and the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations predict the future

On July 11, 2014, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) and the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) jointly released the World Agriculture Outlook report 2014-2023 in Rome, Italy. The important information related to the development trend of China's major agricultural products in the report is now interpreted for reference.

Generally speaking, although China is facing the pressure of slowing economic growth in the next 10 years, the demand for agricultural products is expected to remain strong, and the supply capacity of major agricultural products such as grain, animal products and aquatic products will also increase steadily. China is fully capable of ensuring its own food and food security.

I. the situation of tight balance between grain supply and demand will not change fundamentally.

China's self-sufficiency rate of rations (rice and wheat) will remain above 98 per cent in 2014-2023, while consumption of coarse grains is expected to grow at an average annual rate of 1.65 per cent, slightly higher than the average annual growth rate of 1.47 per cent of production. It is estimated that by 2023, China's coarse grain imports will reach 16.9 million tons, of which corn imports will break through the tariff quota of 7.2 million tons to about 10 million tons.

II. Imports of oilseeds and sugar have slowed down significantly

Although China's oilseed (including soybean) imports are still growing in the future, which is expected to reach 81.46 million tons in 2023, the average annual growth rate is only 1.87%, which is significantly lower than that in the past 10 years (12.08%). From 2014 to 2023, China's sugar imports are expected to grow at an average annual rate of 0.98%, significantly lower than the 16.31% growth in the past decade.

III. Cotton production stops falling and stabilizes

Over the past 10 years, China's cotton production has decreased by an average of 0.62% a year. Looking forward to 2014-2023, although China's cotton acreage is expected to decline, thanks to a steady increase in per unit yield and strong policy support, China's cotton production is expected to stop falling and stabilize. It is estimated that by 2023, China's cotton production will stabilize at about 6.3 million tons, with an average annual growth rate of 0.33% during the forecast period.

IV. Meat imports tend to be active

Due to the strong domestic consumer demand, China's meat imports will show a rapid growth trend in the next 10 years, with the largest increase in pork imports and the fastest growth in beef imports. It is estimated that by 2023, China's imports of pork, beef, mutton and poultry will reach 1.4 million tons, 840000 tons, 370000 tons and 930000 tons respectively, an increase of 167.75%, 441.94%, 240.00% and 82.23% respectively over the base period (2011-2013).

V. Dairy industry is expected to recover

At present, China's dairy industry is at a crossroads, facing a series of challenges and opportunities. In 2013, China's milk production fell to 35.31 million tons, a sharp drop of 5.70% compared with the same period last year. At the same time, it should be noted that the competitive pressure caused by China's increased imports of fresh milk and its dairy products may force the domestic dairy industry to speed up its transformation and upgrading and embark on the road of large-scale farming, which will significantly increase the level of per unit yield. It is estimated that by 2023, China's milk production is expected to reach 52.08 million tons, with an average annual growth rate of 2.65%.

VI. Steady growth in Aquatic products exports

It is estimated that by 2023, China's total exports of aquatic products will reach 10.34 million tons, an increase of 27.88% over the base period (2011-2013). China's position as a major exporter of aquatic products in the world has been further consolidated, but the average annual growth rate of aquatic products exports is expected to be 2.20%. It is lower than the growth rate of 4.37% in the past decade.

(contributed by Xu Lei, Associate researcher, Institute of Agricultural Information, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences)