The Law of population Migration in the process of Modernization

The so-called "law of immigration" or "law of population migration" is the summary and refinement of the regular phenomena, trends and problems shown in a large number of population migration movements. it is one of the important parts of population research and population migration theory research. Chinese and foreign scholars have invested great enthusiasm and efforts in the theoretical study of population migration a long time ago, and achieved considerable results, among which many "immigration rules" have been put forward. These "immigration rules" have important reference value for people to re-understand the history and practical problems of population migration around the world, as well as to predict the trend of population change in the future.

A Review of the Research achievements of "Immigration Law" in Chinese and Foreign academic circles

The original achievement of population migration theory recognized by Chinese and foreign academic circles is the "immigration law" put forward by British statistician Ernest-George Ravenstein. Based on the data of the 1881 British census, Ravenstein published two important papers in the Proceedings of the Royal Statistical Society (Journal of the Royal Statistical Society) in 1885 and 1889 respectively, both entitled "the Law of Migration (that is, the Law of Immigration)" (the laws of migration).

The main content of Ravenstein's Law of Migration was later summarized by scholars as "eight laws" or "Seven laws". According to the author, the subject of Ravenstein's Law can actually be divided into ten "laws": first, the law of distance between immigrants: "usually immigrants travel long distances. Strive to move to a larger commercial and industrial center city, and in the process The main body of immigrants has only moved a short distance. " From the perspective of spatial distance, population migration is the movement of a certain number of people between the place of emigration and the place of migration. This law emphasizes the impact of spatial distance on population migration, that is, the net migration rate is inversely proportional to the migration distance, the total number of immigrants decreases with the increase of migration distance, and the immigrants who really enter the place of migration and settle down, usually account for only a small number of all immigrants who moved out at first. The reasons for this situation are quite complicated, including the return of immigrants and the exclusion of immigrants in the place of immigration. The second is the law of step-by-step migration (the law of complementarity): "when a large-scale migration movement occurs, there is usually a wave of migration: people always flock to commercial and industrial centers with great attraction."... Usually migration takes place step by step again: first, the residents living around the city will scramble to enter the city first. The gaps left by these immigrants will be occupied by people from farther afield, and the migration will be formed step by step, until the growing urban attractiveness affects the most remote corners of the kingdom. " The third is the law of migration tide and reverse migration tide (two-way law): for a particular area, moving out and moving in are always relative. Most immigration processes are a two-way movement. "after every wave of emigration, there is always a reverse and compensatory wave of emigration." Although the two immigration movements are not necessarily equal in number. The fourth is the law of difference between urban and rural immigrants (urban and rural law): "compared with rural residents, urban residents are less mobile." That is, rural residents have a richer tendency to emigrate. Fifth, the law of gender selection (gender law): "Women seem to have an advantage in the number of shorter distances." In other words, the number of female immigrants is higher in short-distance migration, but the number of women participating in longer-distance migration is less than that of men. The sixth is the dominant law of economic factors (economic law): that is, the occurrence of most immigrants is due to economic factors. "abominable and oppressive legal provisions, heavy tax burden, tiresome climate, unadaptable social life atmosphere and even other coercive forces. All this has caused or is still contributing to the wave of migration, but none of these factors can be compared with the motivation aroused by most people's strong desire to improve their material lives. " Seventh, the law of promoting economic development or technological progress (the law of technological promotion): that is, the development of economy and transportation will stimulate the increase of immigration. "I have made comparisons almost everywhere in the past, and I have found that the increase in transport, the development of manufacturing and commerce will lead to an increase in immigration," Ravenstein said in the article. " The eighth is the law of choosing the place to move (the law of big cities): the population always moves to large commercial and industrial centers, especially those who span long distances, which is more obvious. The ninth is the age selection rule (age law): most immigrants are adults between the ages of 20 and 35. The tenth is the Law of Urban Development and Immigration: the development of many large cities and towns is mainly driven by immigrants rather than their own growth.

The Law of Migration put forward by Ravenstein, which is highly concise, concise and extensive, is based on a large number of statistics of migration cases. it is one of the groundbreaking and foundational achievements of the theory of population migration. It has to be admitted that for quite a long time after that, most of the achievements of the researchers have only been partially elucidated and expanded on the basis of Ravenstein's Law, and it is difficult to fully surpass the status and influence of Ravenstein's Law of Immigration. One of the most influential follow-up achievements is the discovery of the American scholar Everett Lee, who made a new development on the basis of Ravenstein's Immigration Rule, focusing on "migration definition", "migration factors", "migration volume", "migration direction and counter-flow", "migration characteristics" and other aspects. this paper combs and elucidates the theory of population migration from many aspects. First of all, Everett Lee proposed that there are four factors that lead to the decision and process of migration: factors related to the place of relocation; factors related to the place of relocation; various barriers to intervention; and personal factors. Secondly, he believes that the amount of migration is affected by the following factors: the degree of differences within the geographical scope; the cultural differences of population and ethnic groups; the difficulty and ease of overcoming the barriers of intervention; the cyclical fluctuation of economy; the decline of migration due to time; differences in the state of migration. Third, Everett Lee also emphasized the problem of migration flow and reverse flow. He pointed out several characteristics worthy of attention: most of the population migration has a specific flow direction; the flow direction of each major migration is often accompanied by the opposite direction; the flow direction ratio will change due to the influence of positive and negative factors, including political treatment, migration policy, economic situation and so on. Fourth, the influence of the characteristics of migrants on migration, such as the choice of migrants is very important for the completion of migration, and the choice of migration is also affected by the life cycle.

Of course, we should also see that the theory of population migration is all-inclusive. With the joint efforts of many researchers, the study of modern population migration theory in the West has made remarkable achievements so far. And formed different orientations, many schools of population migration theory. Such as neoclassical theory, new migration economics theory, international migration theory, migration ecology theory, Marxist and neo-Marxist population migration theory, population migration analysis model, immigration cultural adaptation theory and so on. It is not difficult to find that Chinese and foreign scholars have two main different exploration paths in the research practice of population migration theory: one is the summary of immigration laws (or rules) represented by Ravenstein, Everett Lee and others. Its value lies in that it is based on the statistical analysis, carding and summary of abundant empirical data and objective facts of immigration, and focuses on summarizing and reflecting on the law of development and change of population migration movement from a long-term perspective. Another path is the immigration theory researchers represented by the American scholar W A Lewis (Lewis). From the economic background, they regard population migration as a kind of economic behavior, and construct one unique so-called "hypothesis", "paradigm" or "model" for the analysis and discussion of immigration problems in real society. This paper focuses on exploring the value and social application of the research results of the former type (that is, "law type").

Since the 1980s, the western theory of population migration represented by Ravenstein's Law of Migration has also had a great impact on Chinese academic circles, and many scholars advocate drawing lessons from western theory. try to put forward a new theoretical model or migration law which is suitable for China's national conditions or with Chinese characteristics. Drawing lessons from Ravenstein's law, Hu Zhaoliang puts forward a new immigration law adapted to China's national conditions, including economic law-improvement of life is the main reason for migration; urban and rural law-rural migration rate is higher in the process of urbanization; gender rate-more men as a whole, more local women; age law-more celibate young people, less family migration; distance ratio-the number of migration is inversely proportional to distance The law of progressive complement-the phenomenon of progressive complement in the circle of population migration; the two-way law-positive migration drives the weak reverse migration; and the law of big cities-the proportion of people moving into big cities is large, attracting and migrating far away. Cai Fang and other scholars summarized the law of regional population mobility and put forward the concept of "ladder migration": "Migration will form a regional ladder, that is, labor force will first be transferred from rural areas in relatively underdeveloped areas." then migrate from the more developed rural areas to the cities. " Wang Guixin believes that since the reform and opening up, great changes have taken place in the cause and mechanism of population migration in China: "this change is mainly manifested in the gradual change from social reasons to economic reasons. The occurrence mechanism has gradually changed from planned organization to market regulation." In her research, Yan Bei pays special attention to the gender selectivity in the population migration in the new period. In addition, the rise of three major metropolitan areas ("Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan Metropolitan area", "Yangtze River Delta Metropolitan area" and "Pearl River Delta Metropolitan area") has also attracted great attention of researchers. As far as the whole country is concerned, "the three metropolitan areas are the economic, cultural and transportation centers of China, and they play an important role in China. In the past 20 years of reform and opening up, the main flow of population migration in China is also the three metropolitan areas." Although these theoretical explorations are not perfect, they are all commendable efforts to understand the law of population migration in contemporary China.

Chinese scholars have realized in the research: "compared with the 30-year migration population characteristics before the reform and opening up, the current (1990s) migration population characteristics are more in line with the general law of population migration." This also reflects the important value of population law (law) research that can not be ignored in contemporary population research from one aspect. In order to obtain a more scientific and practical understanding, they pay more attention to the innovation of research methods, especially the sociological questionnaire is widely used. Gu Chaolin and others used 2424 questionnaires to summarize and sort out the current migration characteristics of China's floating population: first, the trend of floating population gathering to large and medium-sized cities is obvious; second, the tendency of urban, rich and nearby migration is prominent; third, family migration has become a new way of migration. From June to September 2010, the School of Social Development and Public Policy of Beijing normal University organized a questionnaire survey of migrant workers in six cities, including Beijing, Dongguan, Wuxi, Wenzhou, Qingdao and Shenyang, and got 1605 valid answers. According to these questionnaires, the researchers made a detailed analysis and summary of the characteristics and migration rules of the migration groups in the eastern cities. For example, the floating population in eastern cities is mainly young people, mainly agricultural household registration and rural population, but there are obvious differences between cities; the trend of husband and wife migration is obvious, but the proportion of family migration with children is low; population mobility shows the characteristics of nearby migration, but there are some differences in the scope of attraction of different cities.

Since the phenomenon of immigration belongs to both demography (economics) and sociology, as well as to reality, history and geography, there are obvious differences in the orientation of inquiry into "laws" (laws) among researchers from different disciplines. As the famous French sociologist Durkheim said: "philosophy and empirical science study laws abstractly, while the purpose of history is to show how laws are spread out in a particular time and space." Ravenstein's Law of Immigration (Law) is put forward from the perspective of history and statistics. From a historical point of view, the "immigration law" is not a so-called immigration "research model" or "mathematical formula", but a summary of experience verified by a large number of proofs. The author thinks that although there has been a great development in the theory of population migration in modern times, the important value of the theory of migration law centered on Ravenstein's Migration Law (including the supplement made by Everett Lee) has been weakened or reduced. this is the fundamental reason. Paying attention to the study of the history of population migration is essential for enriching and perfecting the study of the law of population migration. However, we can see that due to the great differences in the objective situation of historical development between China and the West, some western scholars inevitably have the deviation of "preconceived" or "dominated by the west" when summarizing the law of population migration in the historical period. One of the most famous examples is the so-called five-stage "population transition hypothesis" put forward by the American scholar Zelinsky, which emphasizes that there is no population migration in the traditional society before modernization. If we examine the real course of the development of Chinese population history and immigration history, we will naturally find that this conclusion is ridiculous. Therefore, the important value of the study of Chinese population history and immigration history is also evident. Chinese scholars should make great efforts to make greater contributions to the study of world population history and immigration history.

Based on this understanding, some domestic researchers also devote themselves to the discussion of migration theory and regularity in the study of Chinese immigration history, and put forward a lot of ingenious summary and induction of some regular phenomena and problems. Focusing on the process of building Taiwan's immigrant society, Chen Kongli, combined with a large number of historical examples, puts forward a lot of contents worthy of revision and discussion in view of some immigration theoretical works in the achievements at home and abroad. As Professor Chen specifically pointed out, "the immigrant society is a transitional society, and it is bound to transform into a settled society." This is obviously a valuable theoretical breakthrough in the study of immigrant society. On the issue of social transformation in Taiwan, Professor Chen said: "in Taiwan, the social structure of immigrants is mainly composed of geographical relations of origin, which is an essential feature, and the change of this feature is the symbol of social transformation." GE Jianxiong has always held a cautious attitude towards the study of the regularity of China's population history. at the same time, he has put forward a lot of regular and summing-up viewpoints in a series of works, which are worthy of attention. He said: "looking at the immigrants in Chinese history, most of those forced by the authorities by administrative means either end in failure or become a financial burden, and have to pay a huge price for a long time. However, spontaneous migration, although initially without official support and funding, or even officially prohibited, is often successful and makes a significant contribution to economic development and the consolidation of the frontier. " This is a refined summary of China's long-term historical experience of immigration, which is thought-provoking and of high practical significance. Professor GE spoke highly of the great contribution of the immigration movement to the development of Chinese history: "only by carefully studying and summarizing it can we and our future generations understand and carry forward the glorious deeds of our ancestors." Today, China can have 9.6 million square kilometers of territory and vast territorial sea, 56 ethnic groups and 1.2 billion people. Chinese people can have tens of millions of descendants overseas, and all parts of the country can be developed and developed. The tradition of Chinese culture can last for thousands of years and is always new. Chinese culture can have a great impact on the world, all related to the contribution of immigrants. " These enlightening remarks have not been made by our predecessors, and it is more difficult for many European and American scholars to reach, which shows the research level of contemporary Chinese immigration history and the foresight of Chinese scholars.

In view of the complexity of the phenomenon of population migration, the author urgently feels the necessity and urgency of summarizing and studying the "rules" of Chinese immigrants in the process of scientific research and teaching of Chinese immigration history and regional migration. Therefore, on the basis of "Ravenstein Immigration Law", the author summarizes the relevant research achievements of Chinese and foreign scholars, and puts forward some "laws" (laws) which are of typical significance in the history of Chinese immigration.

The first is the political dominant law, which includes "central cohesion law", "disturbance dispersion law", "forced rebound or forced offset law" and so on. Different from the western scholars' emphasis on the economic factors in the immigration movement, in history, the main motivation of the Chinese immigration movement comes from political factors and influence, so the laws of migration related to politics are more and more complex. This is a major feature of the history of Chinese immigration. "the people are the foundation of the state, and the foundation is solid and peaceful." The important value and influence of population on political construction has long been known by the ruling class of all ages. For this reason, the Chinese feudal dynasty established a strict household registration management system a long time ago, and its purpose was to restrict the free movement of ordinary people. The dominant law of politics is mainly manifested in the following aspects, such as the capital or capital generally develops rapidly into one of the most densely populated areas in its territory. This is the so-called "central cohesion law". In the history of the construction and development of famous metropolises in Chinese history (such as Chang'an in the Western Han Dynasty, Luoyang in the Eastern Han Dynasty, Luoyang in the Northern Wei Dynasty, Chang'an in the Sui and Tang dynasties, Bianliang in the Northern Song Dynasty, etc.), we can find the participation of a large number of immigrants. Secondly, the change of dynasty, the transfer of political center and the outbreak of political unrest will cause the lack of the core of power for a long time, which will become the main power source to stimulate the wave of immigration in the capital and its vicinity. The three most famous large-scale immigration movements in Chinese history ("Yongjia Southern Rescue", "an-Shi Rebellion" and "Jingkang Southern Migration") were all caused by political unrest and the relocation of the capital. it is a typical embodiment of the "disturbance dispelling law" as described by the author.

Second, population density and population carrying capacity determine the immigration law, including "population density gradient determination law (including" vacuum "attraction law)," population carrying capacity determination law (including overloading law) "and so on. The "law of determining population density gradient" has something in common with the "law of ladder migration" put forward by Ravenstein, that is, the regional population gap or so-called "vacuum" caused by a large population migration will lead to the migration of the surrounding population. to make up or fill the gap and "vacuum", thus forming a new wave of migration.

The third is the law of famine and immigration, mainly "famine driving law" or "famine driving law" and so on. Under the circumstances of raging natural disasters and extreme shortage of food supply, ordinary people have only two choices, that is, "death" and "migration". People who do not want to wait for death can only choose to go out to eat or "eat". In history, the unstable migrants caused by famine are usually referred to as "refugees". As a result, every time a serious natural disaster comes, it is the day when another refugee movement breaks out. The raging degree of natural disasters and the degree of famine correspond to the scale and duration of the refugee movement, and are also proportional to the proportion of refugees transformed into long-term immigrants. Therefore, in addition to political factors, natural disasters have become another important inducement to trigger a wave of migration. This is what the author calls "famine driving law" or "famine driving law".

The fourth is the law of ethnic migration, including "the rhythm of the surrounding ethnic groups", "the border law of the Han people" and so on. Since the Qin and Han dynasties, the wave of migration of the surrounding ethnic groups is irresistible, and the main direction of their migration is to move inward, that is, to the Central Plains. After many non-Chinese ethnic groups moved to the south of the Great Wall, they gradually merged with the Han nationality and disappeared in history. This is the main content of "the heart rhythm of the surrounding ethnic groups".

The fifth is the characteristic law of immigration and cultural district, including "elegant culture from excellent law", "vulgar culture from the law of the masses" and so on. In Chinese history, the Han nationality has made the most outstanding achievements in elegant culture, thus exerting the greatest influence. From the Qin and Han dynasties to the Ming and Qing dynasties, all the non-Han ethnic groups who moved in almost without exception accepted the achievements of the elegant culture of the Han nationality, so "Sinicization" became an important part of the cultural development of all ethnic groups. The road to the internal migration of the surrounding ethnic groups is often the "road of Sinicization".

The rules or laws put forward by the author are not personal painstaking attainments, but the carding and induction of numerous and complicated typical examples of immigrants in Chinese history. its purpose is not only to understand the immigration events in the historical period from a more macro and long-term point of view, but also to help today's people more comprehensively and clearly depict and summarize the development track of the history of Chinese immigrants. And predict the future immigration trend and immigration problems realistically and reasonably. The author thinks:

First of all, as one of the core contents of population theory, the great value of the study of "immigration law" is self-evident. One of the bottlenecks to achieve a cognitive breakthrough is to completely change the limitations of the whole society (including academia) on the issue of "immigration". For example, the so-called "immigration" commonly referred to in modern society is more at the legal level, and it is customary to measure it by whether it has obtained nationality (or green card), household registration, or legal immigration status. This in itself is very different from the concept of "immigration" in academic research. Only by truly changing the narrow understanding of immigration in the past, can we have a deeper understanding of the great significance of immigration to the development of China and the world.

Secondly, the study of population history has the advantage of interdisciplinary, which not only belongs to the scope of social history, but also can be classified as economic historiography. On the other hand, the study of immigration history is more ambitious, not only related to history, sociology, economics and demography, but also a prominent human geography phenomenon. The occurrence of a migration movement of considerable scale is often a complex result under the comprehensive action of many factors. therefore, in theoretical explanation, according to the perspective of a single discipline, it is often "foggy" or "scratchy". We should adhere to the direction of multi-level and multi-angle research and exploration. In this case, comprehensive research based on multi-discipline or interdiscipline will be the inevitable orientation of immigration research.

Third, it must be admitted that the formation of "immigration law" is not a sudden whim, but the result of a long historical process, and researchers must have a "long-term" vision and the spirit of seeking truth from facts. If we say that the "migration model" can be a kind of economic hypothesis, while the "immigration law" must be a kind of time-space-crossing, wise and objective historical summary. Moreover, whether it is the migration model or the immigration law (law), its accuracy and true value need to be tested for a long time.

Finally, for the study of population history (including immigration history), practical application is the ultimate destination of our research. If we only stay at the level of academic discussion, then, it will greatly weaken the value and significance of this research, and will fundamentally disrupt the driving force of its research and development. The summary and study of immigration law (law) should be an open and dynamic process, not be reduced to a rigid dogma. The real process of immigration development is not only the objective basis and "source living water" of immigration law (law), but also the "touchstone" of its own value. The so-called "pure academic" orientation, which is unwilling to face the objective reality and has no sense of social responsibility, is either an excuse for prevarication or a lack of courage to escape.