The changes and Countermeasures of the Trade pattern of China's main Agricultural products in the next Ten years

In order to grasp the supply and demand situation and trade development trend of China's grain, cotton, oil and sugar agricultural products, and analyze the possible changes in the import pattern in the future and its possible impact on domestic and foreign market prices, we use the "China Agricultural Sustainable Development decision support system" and the "Global Trade Analysis Model". This paper predicts and analyzes the possible impact of China's agricultural products import on prices in the next 10 years, and puts forward countermeasures and suggestions to maintain the market and price stability of China's main agricultural products.

Supply and demand and trade trend of major agricultural products in China in the next ten years

"China Agricultural Sustainable Development decision support system" is a multi-regional spatial equilibrium model specially used for the analysis of supply, demand and trade of agricultural products in China, including 17 kinds of major agricultural products, 8 regions of the country, and two groups of consumers in urban and rural areas. The model fully takes into account the constraints of natural resources, the interaction between production and consumption, the interrelationship between farming and animal husbandry, and the interaction between different products in the agricultural sector. It is assumed that the annual growth rate of China's GDP will be maintained at 7.5% Mur6% from 2014 to 2023, the urbanization rate will increase to 63% by 2023, and the population growth, household income and grain per unit yield will increase appropriately. The results of model analysis show that China's imports of food crops, cotton and sugar will increase significantly in the next 10 years.

1. The rations are basically self-sufficient, the gap of feed grain is enlarged, and the self-sufficiency rate of grain is reduced.

In China, the sown area of grain will decrease slightly, while the per unit yield and total output will increase steadily. The demand for grain increased rigidly, the overall self-sufficiency rate decreased continuously, and there was a significant difference between the supply and demand of rations and feed grains. Among them, the output of rice has increased steadily, the demand for food, feed and processing has increased, and the domestic supply and demand is basically balanced, with a net import of 1.8 million tons in 2023; wheat production will increase in fluctuations, and feed and industrial consumption will increase significantly. Domestic supply and demand is tight, with imports of 5.7 million tons in 2023. With the further development of corn production, feed and industrial consumption will continue to grow rapidly. the gap between domestic supply and demand will be 18 million tons in 2023, and the self-sufficiency rate will drop to 92.7 percent.

two。 Cotton production maintains its current scale and basically meets domestic consumption.

China's cotton acreage will further shrink, but the level of per unit yield will increase, and the total output will basically maintain the 2013 level for a long time, about 6 million tons. The demand for cotton has risen steadily, rising to 9 million tons in 2023, requiring imports of 3 million tons, and the self-sufficiency rate has dropped to 67 percent. Considering that 35% of China's cotton demand comes from textile industry exports, cotton production can basically meet domestic consumption.

3. The demand for oil crops is increasing rapidly and the gap is widening.

There is little potential for the growth of oil crops in China, and large imports will still be the norm. In 2023, the gap between supply and demand of soybeans will widen to 75 million tons, and the self-sufficiency rate will drop to less than 20 percent; the output of oil crops such as rapeseed and peanuts will be 9.1 million tons, the total demand will be 10.2 million tons, and imports will increase to 1.1 million tons; and imports of palm oil and other vegetable oils will increase from the current 5 million tons to about 7 million tons.

4. Sugar production fluctuates, demand increases, and gap widens.

The production area of sugar in China will shrink, and there is little room for sugar production. Sugar consumption will maintain steady growth, and the pattern of insufficient production and demand will exist for a long time. In 2023, China's sugar output reached 15.6 million tons, the demand was 20.8 million tons, the gap between production and demand widened to 5.2 million tons, and the self-sufficiency rate decreased to 75%.

The influence of China's Agricultural products Import on Price in the next Ten years

Global Trade Analysis Model (GTAP) is a general equilibrium model for multinational and multi-sector applications based on neoclassical economic theory. The framework of the model covers the sub-models of production, consumption and government expenditure of nearly 200 countries (or regions), which are linked through international trade to analyze the impact of trade policy changes on production, import and export, commodity prices and so on. Because the model has a good effect on policy quantitative analysis and can provide specific and accurate suggestions for policy choice and decision-making, today's major economic organizations in the world, such as the World Trade Organization and the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank all use this model to analyze the international economy. The result of model analysis shows that the import of China's main agricultural products will have a certain impact on the international and domestic market prices in the next 10 years.

In 2023, China imported 1.8 million tons of rice and 5.7 million tons of wheat respectively, which will cause the price of rice and wheat in the international market to rise 2.1% and 1.9% higher than that of China without import. China's corn supply and demand gap of 18 million tons in 2023 will lead to a 4.5% increase in corn prices in the international market and 2.8% in the domestic market, and a 1.8% increase in wheat prices. If imports are limited to 7.2 million tons, it will lead to a 10.5% increase in domestic corn market prices and 5.8% increase in wheat prices.

The increase in China's soybean imports to 75 million tons in 2023 will lead to a 6.8% increase in global soybean prices compared with China's current imports of 60 million tons; if imports are limited to the current level, domestic soybean prices will rise by 29%. And led to an increase in corn and wheat imports and prices.

The increase in China's sugar imports to 5.2 million tons in 2023 will lead to a 2.2% increase in international market prices compared with China's current imports of 4.1 million tons; if imports are limited to the current level, domestic sugar prices will rise by 14.3%.

Generally speaking, China will maintain the absolute safety of food rations in the future, rice imports are mainly caused by price differences at home and abroad, wheat imports are mainly used for variety adjustment, and their import scale accounts for a small proportion of international trade volume. the impact on the international market price is very limited. In the future, the increase in China's corn and oil imports is mainly to make up for the gap between domestic supply and demand, and the proportion of import scale in international trade volume has increased, which has a certain impact on international market prices, but it is less likely to cause sharp fluctuations in international prices. On the other hand, the increase in sugar imports has little impact on international market prices.

Countermeasures and suggestions on keeping the Market Price of Agricultural products in China stable

1. Collect and master domestic and foreign market supply and demand and price information

We will strengthen the monitoring and analysis of market information on agricultural products, release timely information on supply, demand and prices of grain, cotton, oil and sugar, and reasonably guide market expectations. We should give full play to the role of Chinese embassies and consulates abroad, focus on collecting market and price information from major crop producing countries such as grain, cotton, oil and sugar, and build a monitoring system for the production, consumption, trade and price information of major agricultural products around the world.

two。 Adjust and perfect the policy of production and circulation of agricultural products in China

Increase capital investment, improve the subsidy system, and ensure that China is basically self-sufficient in grain. On the basis of drawing lessons from the experience of the pilot practice of target price subsidies for cotton and soybeans, the pilot project of target price subsidies for sugar and other products will be launched to stabilize domestic production. Reasonable determination of price fluctuation control range, comprehensive use of grain, cotton, oil, sugar reserves and import and export regulation to maintain market and price stability.

3. Rational use of international agricultural resources and markets

We will lose no time in formulating and implementing the international trade strategy for imported agricultural products, strengthen planning and guidance, optimize the distribution of sources of grain, cotton, oil and sugar, and establish stable and reliable trade relations in agricultural products. We will speed up the implementation of the agricultural "going out" strategy, cultivate large grain, cotton, oil and sugar enterprises with international competitiveness, actively participate in the global market circulation, trade and processing of agricultural products, and ensure a stable and effective supply of major agricultural products in China.