The current Hidden danger of Agricultural Security in China and its Strategic Choice

On November 12, 2013, the third Plenary session of the 18th Central Committee of Communist Party of China adopted the decision of the CPC Central Committee on several Major issues of comprehensively deepening Reform, which states that China will "establish a National Security Council. We will improve the national security system and national security strategy to ensure national security." This indicates that the CPC Central Committee will examine China's national security issues from a strategic perspective in the future. National security can be divided into traditional security and non-traditional security. with the gradual reduction of the possibility of large-scale war, non-traditional security issues have increasingly become an important factor affecting national security. For China, among these non-traditional security factors, agricultural security is particularly worthy of attention.

I. the characteristics and important role of agricultural production

As we all know, agriculture is a social material production department that achieves and strengthens the natural reproduction of plants, animals and microorganisms to obtain effective products through human labor. In other words, the production process of agriculture is a process of continuous creation of life, a process of continuous growth and reproduction of organisms useful to human beings, and the production object of agriculture is living organisms. This fundamental characteristic determines that agriculture is an industry that has to bear more risks than industry, commerce and other industries. It should not only face market risks like other industries, but also bear natural risks that other industries will not encounter.

Because the growth and breeding of biological organisms are subject to natural conditions and biological laws, the general production cycle is relatively long. During the months-long growth of crops, floods and droughts, diseases and insect pests, abnormal temperature, inappropriate wind and rain, and so on, can be fatal hazards. Disease prevention and control is very important for the aquaculture industry, and inexplicable infectious diseases are likely to become extinct.

And even the market risk, like other industries, is sometimes more fatal to fresh agricultural products. Because industrial products can at least be stored, and some fresh agricultural products such as aquatic products, fruits and vegetables must be sold in time, if not sold in time, they may lose all their money. In recent years, there have often been tragedies of plummeting prices of fruits and vegetables in some parts of our country. For example, in 2011, Chinese cabbage in Shandong, Jiangsu and other places were not purchased for 2 cents, while cabbage from Hubei Jiayu fell to 1 penny. In February 2013, the purchase price of chili peppers in Ding'an, Hainan fell to 30 cents, rotten in the fields and unpurchased. In October 2013, one million kilograms of sweet pomelo in Anyuan, Ganzhou, Jiangxi Province, encountered difficulties in sales, resulting in a large number of unsalable phenomena; after the Spring Festival in 2014, about 1000 mu of winter cabbages in Wenling, Taizhou, Zhejiang Province were unsalable, and vegetable farmers could only watch the cabbages rot in the fields. These phenomena are really distressing, but they may still occur from time to time for a long time to come.

Therefore, the characteristics of agriculture determine that it is an industry that bears more risks than industry, commerce and other industries, and is a natural weak industry.

However, although agriculture is a natural weak industry, the proportion of its output value in the GDP of all countries in the world is not high, especially in developed countries, the proportion of agricultural output value is very small. all countries in the world, especially developed countries, attach great importance to agriculture as a special industry, because agriculture is of special significance to each country.

The traditional understanding of the important role of agriculture has two aspects: one is that agriculture provides us with all kinds of food and other necessary means of daily life, and the other is that agriculture provides industry with raw materials for production, so agriculture is the foundation of the national economy. But from a more modern and comprehensive point of view, the significance of agriculture is much higher than that. In addition to the above significance, agriculture is also of great significance in the following aspects:

First, agriculture has environmental and ecological value. Suitable agriculture can not only provide necessary agricultural products for human life, but also produce pleasant scenery and clean air, which will become an important guarantee for the healthy survival of human beings. With the improvement of the degree of urbanization and the continuous spread of post-modern values, the value of agriculture in the environment and ecology, as well as the healthy survival of human beings will become more and more prominent.

Second, agriculture has the function of preserving and continuing cultural diversity. The mode of production determines the way of life, and what is closely related to the agricultural mode of production is the rural way of life. Different from urban life, rural life is closer to nature, and the pace of life is more peaceful, which can give people more room for imagination. With the acceleration of urbanization, the opportunity to experience the rural way of life will become more and more scarce. fortunately, the existence of agriculture provides the possibility for the preservation and continuation of the rural way of life and the opportunity for people to realize this dream. With the continuous improvement of rural infrastructure and the continuous improvement of production and living conditions, the viability of agriculture and rural life will be further enhanced, and its attractiveness will be further enhanced.

Third, the most important thing is that agriculture has political significance and strategic value, which is related to the country's social and political stability and national security. This is determined by the commodity characteristics of agricultural products and the characteristics of agricultural production. On the one hand, as a special commodity, the demand for agricultural products, especially grain, is inflexible and requires a long-term and stable supply. Once there is a shortage, it will endanger the basic needs of the people and create social panic. On the other hand, because agricultural production needs a certain season and cycle, when there is a shortage of agricultural products, they can not rely on their own strength to quickly organize production, but can only rely on the international market, which may be controlled by others and endanger national security. China is a country with a large population, and the pressure on food security and agricultural security is more prominent, and the importance of agriculture in the national political and security strategy is even more special.

II. Unfavorable conditions of China's Agriculture

Due to objective and historical reasons, the unfavorable conditions of Chinese agriculture are more prominent than those of other countries. In addition to the natural disadvantages of agriculture, there are three main aspects: first, the scale of agricultural land is too small, second, the lack of social service system, and third, the serious lack of investment in science and technology.

The scale of farmland of Chinese farmers is too small, which is due to objective conditions and historical reasons. China already has a large population and little land, and is in the process of urbanization, so the average amount of land owned by each household is pitifully small, even less than 0.5 hectares. the average size of each farm in developed countries is as high as hundreds or even thousands of hectares. Too small scale of agricultural land is difficult to achieve minimum economies of scale, let alone bring higher income for farmers, nor can it have strong market competitiveness.

Although the mode of agricultural operation in western countries is the same as in China, it is also family management, but the agricultural production in developed countries has a very developed social service system. Agricultural socialized service system is the general name of a complete set of organizations and methods that provide social services for agricultural production. It is a socialized form of agricultural economic organization that uses the forces of all sectors of society to make agricultural production units with relatively small operating scale adapt to the requirements of the market economic system and overcome the disadvantages of their own small scale. a socialized form of agricultural economic organization that achieves the benefits of large-scale production. Most farmers in developed countries have joined some kind of agricultural cooperatives, and even some farmers have joined several agricultural cooperatives at the same time. The proportion of farmers in European countries joining cooperatives is more than 90%. The proportion of farmers in North America and Australia to participate in cooperatives is also more than 80%. Through cooperatives, they can obtain all-round social services such as the supply of necessary means of production, credit services, production technology, storage, transportation, and market. On the other hand, only about 10% of Chinese farmers join professional cooperatives, and the ability of these cooperatives to provide social services is far from enough. Therefore, China's agricultural business activities are seriously lack of corresponding social service system.

In terms of agricultural science and technology investment, although the Chinese government's investment in agricultural science and technology has been increasing in recent years, there is still a large gap between China and the developed countries in Europe and the United States. Since 1950, US government and corporate funding for agricultural research has been increasing steadily, reaching US $9.6 billion in 2008, accounting for about 20 per cent of global R & D funding for agricultural science and technology. On the other hand, the US government's investment in agricultural science and technology mainly lies in those basic research areas that have no direct economic benefits but have a significant impact on the future development of agriculture, and the annual growth rate of agricultural science and technology investment is maintained at more than 8%. However, the main body of investment in agricultural science and technology in China is single and the quantity is relatively small. In 2011, the central financial investment in science and technology only reached 18.7 billion yuan, and with the input from local governments, the total amount will not exceed 20 billion yuan. If we compare the intensity of investment in agricultural science and technology, China not only lags behind developed countries, but also lower than the average level of developing countries. The intensity of investment in agricultural science and technology in China is only 0.54%, which is only equivalent to that of the United States, or 50% of that of developing countries.

III. The main risks to China's agricultural security

Agriculture has important political and strategic value to China. Therefore, for a rising country with a large population like China, the consequences of the adverse conditions of agriculture will be more severe, and even aggravate the current security situation facing China.

In view of the natural weakness of the characteristics of agricultural production and the unfavorable conditions formed by objective and historical reasons, the current agricultural security situation in China is facing very severe risks. In recent years, under the joint action of the foreign policy of western powers and the manipulation and hype of multinational corporations, oil, water, food and other resources in the world are becoming more and more scarce, and the competition for these resources by various countries has appeared and is bound to become more and more intense in the future. Agricultural resources such as grain and seeds will become an important weapon to compete among great powers and limit China's rise. Therefore, we must realize that the current risks facing China's agricultural security are complex and multiple:

First, agriculture is not attractive enough. Due to the low rate of return and high operational risk of agriculture and its special status, developed countries in the world generally take various measures to ensure the realization of their farmers' economic interests and reduce the operational risks of agriculture. Although the party and the government have issued a series of policies to benefit farmers since the beginning of the 21st century, due to the unfavorable conditions of China's agricultural production, it is difficult for Chinese farmers to fully maximize their economic interests through the market. the attractiveness of agriculture to farmers is declining. As a result, farmers generally lack interest in agricultural production, or are unwilling to engage in agricultural production, or just for their own livelihood need to grow a small number of crops, but are not willing to carry out commercial production, and are not willing to study how to improve agricultural production technology. At the same time, due to the lack of necessary guidance and help, farmers are more willing to follow the signals of the short-term market to make their own production decisions. when the price of a certain agricultural product falls, they will withdraw from the production of this agricultural product one after another. For example, China is a country of origin of soybeans and a net exporter of soybeans before 1995. However, due to the impact of imported soybeans, Chinese farmers have withdrawn from the cultivation of soybeans. By the year 2000, China became the largest importer of soybeans in the world. China imported 63.4 million tons of soybeans in 2013, and the import dependence of soybeans reached more than 80 per cent. The experience of Chinese soybeans is an example. If agriculture is not attractive enough to farmers, and farmers fully listen to the short-term signals of the market, then other Chinese agricultural products are very likely to follow in the footsteps of soybeans.

Second, there are risks in food security. Grain is a special commodity, and the demand is inelastic. People will not eat more because of low prices, nor can they stop eating because of high prices. Once there is a food shortage, it is bound to cause panic and even social and political instability. In this sense, grain is definitely not an ordinary commodity, but a commodity of strategic value. With a large population and a great demand for food, coupled with the traditional concept that "food is the most important thing for the people", the consequences of food shortage may be even more serious, which is bound to affect political stability and national security. General Secretary Xi Jinping pointed out at a forum of the Shandong Academy of Agricultural Sciences in November 2013 that ensuring food security is an eternal issue for China and should not be relaxed at any time. Historical experience tells us that in the event of a great famine, it is useless to have money.