How to optimize the Grain Strategy after "Twelve Lianfeng"

The grain output of 2015 announced a few days ago that China's grain has won the "twelve consecutive abundant" on the basis of a high starting point. However, another news about grain also affects many people: due to the substantial increase in stocks and the decline in prices, it is difficult for farmers to sell grain in Anhui, Northeast and other places in China. What are the difficulties facing the grain market behind the bumper harvest in successive years? How to protect farmers' enthusiasm for growing grain? Many questions are asking about China's food security and market balance.

High inventory and poor sales: is there too much grain?

During the harvest season, Xue Yaohui, director of the Wanxin Farmers' Professional Cooperative in Gongzhuling City, Jilin Province, looked sad and felt at a loss in the face of the temporary storage of grain in the cooperative's temporary storage.

"by this time in previous years, grain had already been sold to the state treasury, but it could not be sold this year." Xue Yaohui said that the cost per ton of grain pulled from the cooperative to the nearby grain depot is about 25 yuan, and due to the reduction in grain purchase prices this year, it is impossible to make a profit by selling it. Seeing that the grain produced by the cooperative and the nearly 6000 mu of land outsourced had not been settled, Xue Yaohui was very anxious.

There are not a few farmers facing the same predicament as Xue Yaohui. Recently, the problem of "difficulty in selling grain" has emerged in many places in our country, and the grain market has encountered unprecedented challenges.

Zhang Ming, deputy director of the Central Grain Storage in Huangchuan, Henan Province, said that a total of 2.64 million tons of grain and oil were stored in Huangchuan directly affiliated depots and depots under their jurisdiction, although they were located in the rice area and did not participate in the purchase of summer grain. However, after stocktaking, the empty warehouse was only more than 400,000 tons. "since the purchase of autumn grain support market was launched on October 1, more than 100,000 tons of rice have been purchased, and according to the purchase volume of supporting the market in previous years, the warehouse capacity is expected to be short of 500000 tons."

On the one hand, domestic grain sales are not smooth, on the other hand, grain imports are also high. Statistics show that in the first half of this year, China imported 16.29 million tons of cereals and cereal flour, including wheat, corn and barley, an increase of more than 60 percent over the same period last year.

"at present, China's grain production has appeared the phenomenon of" three highs ": high grain output, high inventory and high import. As the cost of domestic grain production is getting higher and higher, the national protective price acquisition policy is facing greater pressure and is in a passive situation relative to the lower grain prices in the international market. " Li Guoxiang, a researcher at the Institute of Rural Development of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.

"ceiling" and "Hoop Curse": how Food support policies are Sustainable

At present, the problem of "difficulty in selling grain" once again shows that China's food security is facing a new situation and test, and the grain support and protection policy has also reached an important level of transformation.

According to experts, in 2004, China began to implement the minimum purchase price policy, and then launched the temporary purchase and storage policy. These policies have greatly aroused the enthusiasm of farmers to grow grain. However, with the rapid rise of domestic grain costs, policy purchase prices continue to rise, grain prices gradually deviate from the market, domestic and foreign prices are upside down, a series of problems emerge.

"at present, China's grain production is first faced with two 'ceilings' constraints, one is the price 'ceiling', and the other is the subsidy 'ceiling'. Li Guoxiang, a researcher at the Institute of Rural Development of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said: at present, the prices of major grain in China are already higher than those in the international market, and the price increases continue to meet the "ceiling." The "ceiling" of subsidies means that further increases in subsidies will be restricted under WTO rules.

At present, China's current grain support policy belongs to the category of "yellow box" policy. According to the provisions of the WTO, the micro subsidy of the "yellow box" policy cannot exceed 8.5 per cent of the output value of the grain variety. Compared with this standard, the space for some grain varieties in China to continue to increase subsidies has been very limited. Therefore, the reform of agricultural subsidies and agricultural product price policy is not only the fundamental measure to reflect market supply and demand and achieve reasonable grain prices, but also the key to promote the grain market into a sound development track.

While the "ceiling" is limited, the constraints of the environment and resources of grain production are getting tighter and tighter. "Food policy should consider not only the current output, but also the food security of five years, 10 years, and future generations." Cheng Guoqiang, secretary general of the academic Committee of the Development Research Center of the State Council, pointed out that the current grain support policy focuses on encouraging the increase of grain production, but does not pay enough attention to grain quality, resources and environment, and the sustainable development of grain production is put to the test.

Preventing "cheap grain harms farmers": how to optimize the grain strategy in an all-round way

In order to prevent "cheap grain harming farmers," the executive meeting of the State Council held a few days ago made it clear that more measures should be taken to stabilize grain production, increase income from growing grain, and ensure food security and farmers' interests by doing a good job in purchasing, digesting stocks, and reforming the grain price formation mechanism. At the same time, all localities and relevant departments have also taken action to take a variety of measures to deal with the problem of "difficulty in selling grain."

Experts pointed out that the "difficulty in selling grain" reflects not only the inventory problem, but also the result of the uncoordinated superposition of the grain production and marketing mechanism. In the long run, it is necessary to establish a long-term mechanism with the help of the market, improve the grain price formation and storage mechanism, and comprehensively optimize the overall grain strategy.

"the current grain support policy is in a difficult position, and the orientation of its upgrading and reform is to reduce the distorted impact of the price support policy on the agricultural product market and give full play to the decisive role of the market in allocating resources." Cheng Guoqiang pointed out that China's grain support policy should also transition from "yellow box subsidies" to "green box subsidies" and increase subsidies for agricultural science and technology, water conservancy, environmental protection, insurance, and so on.

Experts pointed out that at the present stage of China's development, while paying attention to the quantity of grain, we should pay more attention to quality, quality and safety, and pay more attention to the sustainable development of agriculture while ensuring current supply.

"the future food security strategy must have a global vision and a world layout." Cheng Guoqiang pointed out that these include the implementation of the strategy of diversifying the import of agricultural products, the strategy of overseas agricultural investment, and the strategy of international cooperation in new agriculture, and at the same time, it is necessary to plan to establish a global commodity trading center as soon as possible, so that China can win more say in the pricing of international agricultural products.