How can the implementation of the cotton direct subsidy policy get the most subsidies?

Li Guoxiang, a researcher at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences and a famous scholar on agriculture, rural areas and farmers, suggested that cotton should not be sold centrally, regardless of whether it is cotton farmers in Xinjiang or in the mainland, on the premise that the state has subsidies for farmers.

How can the implementation of the cotton direct subsidy policy get the most subsidies?

The 2014 cotton year is the first year of the pilot project of cotton target price reform in Xinjiang. Many parties also focus on the cotton market this autumn and analyze the cotton production and marketing situation under the new policy. To this end, a reporter from Rural Voice of China specially went to Xinjiang to cover the news. It is understood that cotton production and prices in Xinjiang have both fallen, and cotton farmers are also waiting to see whether their own subsidies at the target price can protect their own income.

According to a report by Rural Voice of China, "three Rural China", it is now the cotton harvest season. According to Aili, a cotton farmer in Jiashi County, Kashgar, cotton production has been delayed due to the impact of strong wind on cotton production this year. In previous years, the cotton yield per mu in southern Xinjiang was about 400 kg, but this year it is expected to be only 300 kg.

Aili, a cotton farmer: "the weather is not good, and the cotton will not open this year."

While the output is declining, the acreage is also shrinking. According to the statistics of the National Development and Reform Commission, the actual cotton sowing area across the country in 2014 is 60.28 million mu, and the planting area is expected to drop by 8.7% compared with last year, and due to drought, high temperature and other meteorological disasters in some cotton areas, Liu Xiaonan, deputy director of the Economic and Trade Department of the National Development and Reform Commission, said that cotton production for the whole year is expected to decrease compared with the previous year.

Liu Xiaonan: "the area of cotton has declined this year. It is initially estimated that the actual cotton output this year will be about 6.5 million tons, a decrease of 500000 tons over the previous year."

In terms of price, without the protection of the minimum protective price, the price of cotton under the guidance of the market has dropped significantly compared with previous years. Once the lowest purchase price was higher than 9 yuan per kilogram, it has now fallen to less than 7 yuan. Mamattursun, a cotton farmer in Kashgar, heard that the price of cotton in Aksu was good, so he hurriedly pulled a cart to Aksu to sell it. Unexpectedly, the purchase price of Aksu also fell from 6.7yuan to 6.50 yuan, and fell to 6.2yuan in our interview. Meimei told the reporter that he originally wanted to come and sell it for a good price, but now the price has plummeted and he is so depressed that he doesn't even want to eat.

The cotton farmer bought it: "Last year, the price was more than 9 yuan, but this year it was still 6.50 yuan, so I don't want to sell it. Now it's for nothing. If all the workers count 1700 to 1800 per mu of land and 300 kilograms of cotton per mu, if they sell it for 6 yuan this year, they won't have it." Now the cost is so high that no one can be found, cotton has been brought, and the price is so low. The boss also said 6.5 yuan, but we still don't want to sell it. "

According to the pilot implementation plan of cotton target price reform in Xinjiang, September to November is the picking period, and the state will calculate the average price purchased by the cotton market during this period. If it is lower than the target price, the price difference will be subsidized to farmers in a certain way. Therefore, the psychology of many cotton farmers to cherish the sale is obvious, and everyone is watching for fear that the price they sell is lower than the average price, resulting in less subsidies. Li Guoxiang, a researcher at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences and a famous scholar on agriculture, rural areas and farmers, believes that cotton farmers should not worry too much.

Li Guoxiang: "the farmer himself must make it clear that the price of the cotton he sells actually forms part of the average price, so there is no need to worry that his price is lower than the average price." We should understand and observe the price of cotton in other places. If the price he sells is the same as that in other places, it should be said that this price is the average price. "

In addition, according to statistics, in addition to Xinjiang, the main cotton areas in the mainland also show a large decrease in the area of large cotton counties and a large decrease in the area of large farmers. The spring sowing area of cotton in Hebei is 7.23 million mu, down 16.4% from the same period last year; the cotton area of Jiangsu may fall below 2 million mu for the first time, down about 20% from last year; and the cotton planting areas of major cotton-growing counties of more than 100000 mu in Jiangxi, such as Pengze and Duchang, have been reduced by more than 10%. The area of many large growers has decreased by nearly 50%.

In order to better safeguard the interests of cotton farmers in the mainland, the National Development and Reform Commission said that in addition to the pilot project in Xinjiang, cotton subsidies will be extended to the mainland and quota subsidies will be given to cotton farmers in the main cotton-producing areas of the Yellow River and Yangtze River basins. So, how strong will this quota subsidy be?

Li Guoxiang: "the cotton farmers in the mainland will give corresponding compensation according to the actual planting, which has little to do with sales and market, mainly to make up for this year." Since our target price reform pilot project is in Xinjiang, cotton farmers in the mainland may not know or have no time to adjust the structure, so they may make up for their economic losses. For example, if we apportion part of the cost to them appropriately, this part may not be as high as the subsidy standard of cotton farmers in Xinjiang. "

It seems that the quota subsidy in the mainland is not as strong as the target price. In fact, as farmers, in addition to part of the state subsidies, but the income can be increased, or specific to see whether they can increase their income. Under the same policy, some farmers grow cotton with high yield and good quality, which can increase their income, while some farmers grow cotton that is affected by disasters and may reduce their income. To this end, Li Guoxiang suggested that no matter whether they are cotton farmers in Xinjiang or those in the mainland, under the premise that the state has subsidies for farmers, it is best not to sell cotton centrally.

Li Guoxiang: "as far as I know, cotton cannot be kept in the mainland for a long time. Now that the price is more suitable, we should actively sell it." When the cotton comes to November, because you are selling centrally, the acquirer is likely to lower the price. I do suggest that farmers can take a measure called risk management. It's usually called not to put eggs in one basket. That is, when you sell cotton, you can sell it evenly, sell some of it in September and then sell another part in October, so that your price at this time is not guaranteed to be the highest, but definitely not the lowest. Be sure to sell evenly so that your risk is the least and your loss should be the least. "

Experts explained that the price of each transaction will be counted in the average price, so on the whole, if the transaction price is lower than the average price, it will certainly pull down the average price. But for individuals, of course, it is better to be higher and get more subsidies. But it is difficult for us to judge when the price will reach a high point, so it is safest to adopt the method of uniform sales.