China's feed animal husbandry encounters great difficulties

Since last year, the development of animal husbandry in China has encountered unprecedented difficulties. It can be said that the development of animal husbandry in China in the past two years is the most difficult period since the reform and opening up, and the problems and contradictions encountered are also the most. First of all, it is shown in the weak growth in consumption, and pigs have been in a state of overall losses due to cyclical fluctuations. Before May this year, pigs suffered heavy losses for seven consecutive months, and the situation has improved since May. But so far, the industry-wide loss has not been reversed. Therefore, the cyclical fluctuation of pigs this time lasts much longer than the previous ones, so we should carefully analyze the new situation and new problems of this cyclical fluctuation. In the whole animal husbandry, the situation of live pigs and poultry is very bad, only beef and mutton production is very good.

According to the analysis, the reason for this situation in China's animal husbandry production since last year is not only affected by the periodic fluctuations of live pigs and poultry emergencies, but also a very important factor, that is, policy factors. After the introduction of the eight regulations of the Central Committee, it has had a direct and important impact on the consumption of animal products, but I think this impact is a positive one. In the past, there was a big bubble in the consumption of animal products. The bubble consists of several aspects: first, wasteful consumption, that is, public consumption, this proportion should not be small. Second, excessive consumption, in the past, every year during the festivals, and even on a daily basis, government organizations and units had to buy group purchases for workers, such as buying meat and eggs, and basically all units, large and small, had such benefits. Whether you have it at home or not, whether you want to eat or not, this is a kind of excessive consumption. After the promulgation of the eight regulations of the Central Committee, this bubble was burst. I think the total amount of these two pieces is definitely not a small number. At present, no organization has made an accurate judgment on this figure, but I think this figure accounts for a large proportion in the overall consumption of animal products. After the bubble was punctured, the contradiction that supply exceeds demand became more prominent. It should be pointed out that from now on, whether it is engaged in production or feed, this bubble must be eliminated in the prediction and calculation of the future consumption of animal products. In the past few decades, the volume of this area has been counted in the total consumption, so I think the impact of this factor should not be underestimated.

In addition, people's living habits are also undergoing profound changes, especially in the new generation, many of them will not do the consumption of animal products, so the actual consumption of this area is also decreasing because of lifestyle changes. At the same time, group consumption at construction sites and factories has declined significantly in the past due to a slowdown in macroeconomic growth. In the past, many construction sites, be it railways, highways, including building houses, as well as many factories, consumed most of the canteen group consumption of pork, eggs and chicken, and this amount was not small. This is also an important factor contributing to the sluggish growth of consumption.

Second, excess production capacity of livestock products. The most prominent performance is live pigs. At present, the country can reproduce nearly 50 million sows. Although the situation of live pigs is so bad, the number of sows reduced is very limited. For 50 million fertile sows, it is estimated that each litter can produce 30 to 40 per year, and it is obvious that the supply exceeds the demand. The same is true of broilers. Under the severe impact of H7N9, 1.5 million sets of breeder chickens were imported last year, and there is still a serious overcapacity.

However, the adjustment of animal husbandry production capacity is not as simple as industry, so easy to do, there is no place to adjust production capacity, but this problem must be paid attention to and studied.

Due to the influence of the situation of animal husbandry production, the growth rate of the whole feed industry has slowed down sharply, and even some feed products have declined greatly. A special reason why pig feed continues to grow this year is that many pig farming enterprises press the fence very seriously, and many enterprises do not put out the fence until they raise more than 150 kilograms, and the feed consumed by one pig is almost equivalent to that of two pigs. the phenomenon of pig crushing is very common this year. If the pig feed consumption is calculated according to the conventional method in the past, the figures are not correct.

Due to the slowdown in the growth of the feed industry, the impact on corn consumption is also very direct. Compared with previous years, the increase in corn consumption of feed this year is not very obvious. From my personal point of view, although North China and Northeast China have been affected by the drought this year, and the drought in Henan, Liaoning and Jilin provinces is relatively serious, Heilongjiang is surprisingly good this year, so on the whole, the whole corn year is still a bumper harvest, especially the quality of corn in Heilongjiang this year is better than in previous years. According to the comprehensive analysis of this year's corn planting area and drought, corn production this year may be slightly lower than that of last year, with a maximum reduction of several billion jin, and no more than 10 billion jin. The output of corn last year was 214 million tons, and this year it should be about 210 million tons. Today is September 22nd. How do you judge the situation this year? The production situation is basically clear, mainly on how to judge the price of new grain on the market this year. I don't think the price of new grain this year will be low. I have worked in Harbin for several years. I estimate that the price of corn in Heilongjiang will not be lower than 75 cents this year, because I am not engaged in grain trade. I can only make such a judgment rashly. Although the actual reduction in production in Henan, Liaoning and Jilin is not very large this year, the signal it sends will be far greater than the actual reduction in production. This signal has long been sent out and will have a direct impact on the price of new grain on the market. The price of new grain on the market this year mainly depends on the policies issued by the state, one is the temporary storage price, and the other is the freight subsidy. At what level will the temporary reserve price be determined this year? On the whole, it should be to maintain stability, and it is relatively reasonable to maintain stability. I think the signal given by you is higher than one point, and even a point lower is wrong, so from a scientific and reasonable point of view, it should be to maintain last year's level. Another is the freight subsidy, which will also directly affect the price of new grain; at the same time, due to the large increase in new warehouse capacity since last year, there may be a situation of grabbing new grain after it is put on the market. Why rob at this time? What we want to grab is the price difference, starting from September 25 this year to the formal introduction of the temporary storage price, which is roughly half a month to 20 days. If we press this price difference correctly, the income will not be small. Therefore, I estimate that there may be a situation of grain grab after the new grain is on the market this year. The first battlefield is in Heilongjiang, but this judgment is not necessarily accurate.

At present, the situation of corn deep processing is not good as a whole. The existing deep processing capacity of corn in the country is generally close to 80 million tons, but at present, it is in a state of serious loss in the whole industry, producing alcohol and starch, generally losing 200 yuan per ton. Therefore, although our entire corn deep processing capacity is 80 million tons, the actual corn consumption last year was more than 50 million tons, and the operating rate of corn deep processing enterprises so far this year is more than 40%, less than half. It is mainly due to the loss of the whole industry, and the export situation is not good. In the past, we exported about 500000 tons of alcohol all year round, but it is estimated that only tens of thousands of tons will be produced this year. Starch used to export 400, 000 to 500, 000 tons a year, but this year it will not exceed 100, 000 tons. The whole corn processing enterprise is in a state of loss in the whole industry. This situation will not be effectively reversed in the near future.

At the same time, due to the substantial increase in corn collection and storage prices for many years in a row, the domestic corn price is much higher than the international market level. now the dutiable price of corn imported from the United States to Guangdong is more than 1740 yuan per ton, but it is more than 2700 yuan from the northeast to Guangdong, with a difference of 1000 yuan per ton, and the impact of the price gap is very great. Another is the replacement of corn. Under the condition of high corn prices, corn processing enterprises imported more than 5 million tons of cassava and 900000 tons of cassava flour last year, which is equivalent to replacing more than 6 million tons of corn. Feed enterprises do not have complete figures, and I estimate that the replacement of wheat so far this year is definitely not a small number, so the supply and demand situation of corn is also changing. This year, corn is still a bumper harvest year, but consumption growth is weak, substitutes are increasing, and the actual relationship between supply and demand of corn still exceeds demand, so the inventory pressure of corn next year is not small.

Although the supply of corn exceeds demand on the whole, the price will not change subversely because of the oversupply, and the price of corn will still be in a high position.

In addition, the temporary corn stock is so large that if we let it hang upside down and there is a new account, the state finance cannot afford it, so we must maintain the overall pattern of selling at a reasonable price and be able to go out. I think this is a general principle, and there will be absolutely no loss or new accounts, so the price should still be running at a high level. Then everyone has made a choice. What on earth should corn do in terms of trade this year? One is how much new grain is going to be collected? Second, what is the price of new grain? It is particularly important to scientifically determine the amount of reserves, each processing enterprise must have a reasonable amount of reserves, otherwise there may be shifts, high costs and so on. Under the uncertain circumstances of freight subsidy, many people do not dare to do it, and even people are more and more unwilling to do the grain package this year, so the problem in the southwest will be even more prominent in the future. In the past two years, corn in southwest China is mainly transferred from Xinjiang and Shaanxi. In the next step, with the continuous increase in consumption, its guarantee capacity is still limited. For example, the package of grain in the northwest is not cost-effective and no one does it, so how can the bulk grain in the next step advance? Therefore, you should give some suggestions to the national policy from different angles, that is, what policies to fight for for the future guarantee and distribution of grain.

In short, I think the situation of corn this year is becoming more and more complicated, and we must pay close attention to the country's macro-control policy on grain; at the same time, we should also pay close attention to the actual changes in the market and have correct expectations for future development. make the right judgment.