The price of eggs and pork fell for the first time. It is a consensus that CPI rose lower in September.

As egg and pork prices, which have an important impact on household consumption, fell for the first time after rising for the first time, the decline in CPI growth in September has also become a consensus in the industry.

On October 15th, the National Bureau of Statistics will release two data of CPI and PPI for September. Wang Jun, vice minister of the Consulting and Research Department of the China Center for International Economic Exchange, predicted in an interview with the Securities Daily that pork and egg prices fell in September, which will bring down CPI growth in September, and the range of 2.1% to 2.2% may become the operating range of CPI in September.

"since the beginning of this year, the overall price level has shown a gradual downward trend, which is also consistent with the overall economic operation this year, and the lack of overall demand is also reflected in the price level. both consumer prices and industrial product prices have shown a downward trend, and sluggish demand is also a more prominent feature at present." Wang Jun said.

Dong Dengxin, director of the Institute of Finance and Securities of Wuhan Science University, said in an interview with the Securities Daily that the increase in CPI in September will be basically the same as that in August, and there will be no obvious change, while PPI will gradually narrow in the direction of negative growth.

The financial research center of the bank of communications predicts that food prices rose slightly month-on-month in September and are expected to be about 0.5%. Considering that non-food prices have been basically stable recently, the year-on-year increase in non-food prices in September is expected to be basically the same as the previous month (about 1.5%). At the same time, due to the tail warping factor of about 0.3% in September, it was down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month. Based on the above reasons, it is preliminarily judged that the year-on-year increase in CPI in September fell sharply from the previous month, returning to less than 2 per cent.

The Bank of Communications Financial Research Center pointed out that the continuous decline in CPI year-on-year in the past two months is mainly driven by the tail-warping factor, considering that the tail-warping factor is low in the fourth quarter, the key to affecting the year-on-year level of CPI depends on the fluctuations of the new price increase factors. At present, pork prices are still negative compared with the same period last year, and it is difficult to have a trend to rise during the year. Although there is the impact of dry weather, the overall operation of domestic grain prices is stable, with no obvious fluctuations. Therefore, under the background of slow and stable economic growth, the new price increase factor of CPI in the fourth quarter will not rise significantly. Year-on-year CPI growth in the second half of the year will be lower than in the first half, and CPI growth is expected to slow slightly to about 2.1 per cent in the second half, with full-year CPI growth of about 2.2 per cent.