It is difficult for soybeans to fall in record output.

"collecting more than three or five buckets" was originally a good sight loved by farmers, but in the high-yield festival, it has become a straw that bends the price of agricultural products.

In the golden autumn, there was a cloudy and rainy harvest of soybeans on the other side of the ocean, which brought a slight rebound in soybean futures and soybean oil futures at home and abroad. The bright sunshine after the wind and rain and the reappearance of a busy harvest in the fields caused domestic and foreign soybean and soybean oil futures to plummet yesterday, and the domestic soybean oil futures market hit a new low since mid-October 2006. It can be described as "sunrise in the east and rain in the west".

Soybean oil futures hit an 8-year low

In the first three weeks from October 1 to October 17, news came from the United States that overcast and rain affected soybean harvesting. CBOT soybean futures rebounded 4.44% during the period, and domestic soybean meal and soybean oil futures also stabilized and rebounded after a long decline. But soon, the weather in the United States suddenly cleared up, the producing area was sunny, and the bean futures market was a haze.

CBOT soybean futures fell to the lowest level in nearly a week in electronic trading on Monday. The main domestic soybean oil futures 1501 contract fell 126 yuan / ton, or 2.16%, to 5708 yuan / ton yesterday. The intraday low fell to 5696 yuan / ton, the lowest since October 20, 2006.

Ole Houe, an analyst at Sydney-based brokerage firm IKON Commodities, said the weather looks good and it will help American farmers speed up the harvest. Last week's rally was driven entirely by delays in the US harvest, and it would not be surprising if prices fell for most of the week.

"recently, the improved weather in the Midwest of the United States is conducive to the harvest of beautiful beans, under this effect, American beans and American soybean oil as a whole maintain a volatile and weak operation, while high inventories and poor demand in the domestic oil market are still important factors restricting the rise in the market." Wu Zhengxing, a futures analyst at Huizhou merchants, pointed out.

Zhou Lingling, an analyst at Galaxy Futures, said that oil rebounded slightly for two days at the beginning of last week, supported by a slightly more profitable report on US farmers, but it is an indisputable fact that record soybean production in the United States is about to appear on the market. According to USDA forecast data in October, the output of beautiful beans in 2014 and 2015 will reach 106.87 million tons, an increase of 15.48 million tons over last year, which is equivalent to about two and a half months' imports of China. Coupled with the concentrated listing of crops such as corn in the United States, it is bound to exert great pressure on the warehousing capacity and logistics and transportation capacity of American beans, while if the warehouse capacity is insufficient, farmers will be eager to ship goods, which will exert greater pressure on market prices.

China's demand is difficult to profit.

September and October coincided with the launch of American beans one after another, the overall situation of increasing production of American beans has been determined, and the planting area of new season soybeans in South America has also suppressed long-term oil prices. According to the Brazilian Commodity supply Agency (Conab), the area of soybeans planted in Brazil in 2014 was between 3060 and 31.87 million hectares, an increase of 43 to 1.7 million hectares over last year. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange estimates that Argentina has planted 20.6 million hectares of soybeans, an increase of 250000 hectares over last year.

When the increase in supply is a foregone conclusion, Chinese demand has become the key to determine the trend of the oil market. So can Chinese demand boost the soybean oil market?

Looking back at the customs statistics in the last five years, China's monthly soybean imports often reach a trough in September and October. This is mainly due to the fact that the terminal consumer demand for oil is far from stabilizing, and oil factories and traders lack the demand for stock during holidays. " Li Qing, an Anxin futures analyst, said that at present, the crushing profit of oil factories in China's coastal areas is about 100 yuan per ton, which is relatively thin, while the inventory of soybean oil is still large, and downstream manufacturers basically have no willingness to hoard goods. Oil factories have entered a long process of "destocking".

At present, China's soybean oil inventory is still high. According to the world granary data, as of October 17, China's soybean oil commercial inventory is about 1.38 million tons, far higher than the 1.03 million tons in the same period last year, close to the record high of 1.45 million tons. However, the supply of soybeans at the port is still relatively abundant. "in the later period, as pig farming enters the peak season, the demand for soybean meal will gradually increase, and the opening rate of oil plants will also increase, leading to an increase in commercial inventory of soybean oil, but because winter is the off-season for consumption of palm oil, soybean oil will replace part of palm oil consumption. so the increase in soybean oil inventory may also be limited." Zhou Lingling said.

The recent significant decline in international crude oil prices also has spillover pressure on soybean oil prices. According to current crude oil prices, without considering tax subsidies, the United States lost about 20% in the production of biodiesel from soybean oil, and the theoretical loss widened, indicating that the amount of soybean oil consumed by the biodiesel industry will be lower than previously expected.

Wei Lei, an analyst at Yangtze River Futures, pointed out that at present, Jiangsu imports soybean crushing profits are losing again, in the case of poor oil inventory, oil factories may continue to support the meal.

"recently, the ratio of pig to grain and the stock of pigs have both warmed up, and the income from feed farming may be relatively optimistic about fat and fat. considering the willingness of oil factories to throw oil into the meal, we tend to think that the range of oil shock will still move down." Li Qing said.

In addition to soybean oil futures, the follow-up trend of palm oil futures is not optimistic by analysts. At present, the supply of oil is loose as a whole. Oil in high inventory and other factors suppressed, the spot price performance is relatively weak, and fell with the market, soybean oil fell in 30-100 yuan / ton, palm oil fell in 10-40 yuan / ton. At present, the stock of soybean oil in domestic factories is kept at about 1.36 million tons, which is on the high side. However, the port palm oil inventory of 699000 tons, maintained in a relatively stable range of supply and demand, palm oil showed relative resilience.

Wu Zhengxing pointed out that under the influence of the continuous sharp decline in international crude oil and the relative weakness of beans and soybean oil, oil plates such as soybean oil and palm oil may remain weak and volatile.