The market risk of a bumper corn harvest needs to be vigilant.

Autumn and October is the harvest season in Heilongjiang. As far as we can see, there is a continuous supply of corn and soybeans. The vast black land has propped up the status of China's largest grain-producing region with a bumper harvest. Recently, the reporter followed the delegation from Harbin to Suihua, through Bei'an, across the Wudalianchi, northernmost to the Heihe River, then returned to Nenjiang, Nehe, and Moqi, Inner Mongolia, and then returned to Harbin via Qiqihar, Longjiang, Daqing and other places, with a journey of 2500 kilometers. Through on-the-spot investigation, visiting farmers, seed dealers, and grain buyers, and having in-depth discussions with large grain growers, planting associations, state-owned grain depots, and processing enterprises, we learned that Beidacang will have another bumper harvest this year.

The harvest is better than last year, and the price of new grain is expected to fall.

The first stop of the delegation is Gongjia Village, Haruo Highway, Bayan County, where the local corn is in the wax ripening stage, with dense plants and full grains. Although the situation of blindness is more serious than that of last year, both the planting area and the growth condition are relatively ideal, and a bumper harvest is in sight.

Cui Lijun, who is busy harvesting his own soybeans in Zhang Guopingtun, Shuangshan Village, Waxing Town, Bayan County, told reporters that this year's soybean harvest is better than last year. Last year, his soybean yield per mu was less than 280 jin, but this year it can reach more than 370 jin.

The soybeans that Cui Lijun had just harvested were shipped to the town and sold to buyers at a price of 2.27 yuan per jin, up from 2.30 yuan per jin a few days ago. He judged that with the intensive listing of new beans, their prices will go down.

Zhu Liping of the Bayanwa Xingqiao small oil press plant also said that the soil moisture during the soybean growing season this year is better, and the per unit yield will reach 380-400 jin / mu, a large increase compared with last year's 320-350 jin / mu level. As for the purchase price of soybeans, Zhu Liping believes that the initial purchase price of soybeans is 2.4 yuan / jin, and then it may fall to 2.38 yuan / jin. In 2014, the state cancelled the temporary reserve soybean acquisition policy, the pricing power of domestic soybeans returned to the market, and soybean prices lost the bottom support. Zhu Liping expects the purchase price of soybeans this year may be lower than that of the same period last year.

In Huanxiling Village, Sifangtai Town, Beilin District, Suihua City, the reporter met villager Song Changgui. His family has planted three plots of land, including more than two tons of corn, and he estimates that the yield of corn this year will be 24,000 kilos and 25,000 jin.

Song Changgui calculated an account for the reporter: a grain of soil fertilizer plus topdressing costs about 2600 yuan, seeds 500 yuan, pesticides 200 yuan, machine income 1,100 yuan, sowing 300 yuan, arable land 600 yuan, the average price of locally contracted land is 6000 million yuan, threshing 0.150.2 yuan per jin, wet corn is sold to 0.70 yuan / jin to make ends meet, while the current price of new corn is only about 0.6 yuan / jin. Last year was even worse, because of mildew, corn was sold for only 0.4 yuan per jin.

In Nenjiang, due to the abundance of Rain Water and fewer diseases and insect pests in this year, the high yield of corn has become a foregone conclusion. At present, most of the corn in this area is Demeya, which is generally used to make starch and alcohol because of its thick skin. Nenjiang corn planting is about 1.2 million mu, the yield is about 900000 tons, and the current purchase price is about 0.75 yuan / jin.

In Zhangwei Town, Hailun City, Ji Jun drives agricultural tricycles to sell newly harvested soybeans. More than a dozen buyers in the town have opened scales to buy them, and there are long queues in front of some doors. Ji Jun sells sprouts, and the output per hectare this year is about 5000 jin, but he is not satisfied with the price of 2.30 yuan per jin. Because he didn't know the price in the future, Ji Jun said it would be better to sell it as soon as possible.

Corn and soybeans continue to shrink.

All the way north from Harbin, there are cornfields on both sides of the road, and soybean fields are scattered sporadically. It was only when we reached Nenjiang that there was a marked increase in soybeans. Nenjiang is a famous hometown of soybeans, and the sculpture in the city is a string of beads worn by "golden soybeans". Sun Tiecheng, president of the miscellaneous grain association in the county, who is also in charge of the Nenjiang Chengyi Farmers' planting Professional Cooperative, told reporters that Nenjiang County has an area of 6.6 million mu of arable land, and this year 3.9 million mu of soybeans have been planted, a decrease of 500000 mu compared with 4.4 million mu last year, while corn planting has increased to 1.2 million mu. Sun Tiecheng planted 12000 mu of corn this year, which he said will increase to 60, 000 mu next year. This figure is not the largest among the major local grain growers, with some planting 150000 mu of corn. The accumulated temperature condition of Nenjiang River is actually more suitable for planting soybean, but because of the higher income, corn planting has become more and more popular in the past two years. Sun Tiecheng said that there is no market for his corn, and many spot merchants, including grain enterprises in Sichuan, have come to discuss acquisitions. After deducting the cost, his income from planting corn this year is 7000 yuan per hectare, equivalent to more than 460 yuan per mu.

Cui Lijun told reporters that he planted a total of 20 mu of soybeans this year, nearly half of what he planted last year, which is a common phenomenon among them. Three years ago, local soybeans and corn could be equally grown, but now the ratio of soybeans to corn is less than 2:8.

In Nehe, dozens of seed shops are almost lined up with a street. The owner of Hefeng seed store told reporters that the local corn output and quality this year are very good. The corn seed he distributes, called Qingyu No. 1, has a yield of 24000 tons per kilogram, which is about 40 jin per hectare. Last year he sold about 150000 jin of seeds at a price of 16 yuan per jin. He predicts that this figure will exceed 200000 jin next year, and the price will rise to 17 yuan per jin accordingly.

Li Shuzhi, the owner of another store called Beinong seed Distribution Office, expressed the same view. This veteran worker, who has just retired from the Nehe Agricultural Bureau, knows the planting techniques of soybeans and corn like the back of her hand. Last year, her family sold more than 60,000 jin of corn seeds at a price of 15 yuan per jin. Under its guidance, farmers' corn is growing very well. She believes that seed sales will increase greatly next year, and prices will also rise.

The land of Molidawa Daur Autonomous Banner in Inner Mongolia belongs to Hulunbuir City, which is only across the Nenjiang River from Nehe City in Heilongjiang Province. it is one of the top 100 grain-producing counties in China, with more than 8.12 million mu of agricultural land. Wang Zhankui, director of the Ganhe Grain Depot in Moqi, told Futures Daily that last year the planting area of corn in the flag was about 1 million mu, but this year it has grown by leaps and bounds to 3.5 million mu, while the area of soybeans dropped from 5 million mu last year to 3 million mu this year.

Wang Zhankui thinks that the soybean area will decrease in the future. The planting cost of corn in the local area is about 760yuan / mu, the income is about 1040 yuan / mu, the profit is 280yuan / mu, while the planting cost of soybean is about 490yuan / mu, the income is only 100yuan / mu. In order to achieve the steady growth of grain production, the local government is more inclined to guide farmers to plant more corn, and soybean bears the brunt of the replaced varieties, which are in a weak position in the "land competition" with corn and rice.

Both Sun Tiecheng, Li Shuzhi, Wang Zhankui and others believe that the growth of corn acreage is irreversible, even in some areas that are more suitable for growing soybeans. However, Cui Lijun believes that if the price of soybeans can reach 3 yuan per jin, I believe more and more farmers will grow soybeans, because compared with corn, soybeans are cheaper and save time and effort.

The transformation of traders shows their own tricks to seek development.

Before 2012, Zhu Liping, like many grain traders in Bayan County, purchased corn and soybeans, and with the fierce competition and people's attention to food safety, relying on high-quality non-GM soybeans in Bayan County, Zhu Liping set up Heilongjiang Waxingqiao small squeeze Oil Co., Ltd.

Zhu Liping said that his oil plant mainly uses the spiral physical pressing process, which consumes about 10,000 tons of soybeans a year. The products are designed for Shang Chao, and this pure physical pressed soybean oil, which mainly plays the "health" brand, is soon sought after. Zhu Liping said that due to the strict procurement of raw materials and the good quality of the meal, it is mostly used for export. Oil factories in Harbin, Dalian and other places have also set up offices, although the price of products is much higher than other brands, but still in short supply. Zhu Liping said that at present, there are five or six similar oil crushing plants in Bayan region, with an annual consumption of about 60,000 tons of soybeans, and his oil pressing plant is being expanded. When a production line with a daily processing capacity of 100 tons is launched next year, he will use more than 30,000 tons of beans a year.

However, as far as he knows, most local traders are afraid to store grain unless they have their own market, because they didn't make any money last year. He expects traders to be afraid to store corn, while soybeans may store some.

Huibao Grain and Oil is a large grain trader in Haibei Town, Hailun City, mainly purchasing soybeans. According to Li Zhongfang, the head of the enterprise, the annual soybean trade volume of the enterprise is now about 30,000 tons, which is not included by the State Reserve. After selection, the soybeans of enterprises can meet the needs of different customers, sprouts are mostly sent to Beijing, Chongqing and other places, egg whites are mostly sent to processing plants in Shandong, and other soybeans are sent to oil plants, with a profit of about 100 yuan per ton. Li Zhongfang said that for traders of her size, there are 20 or 30 traders in Haibei alone.

Li Zhongfang is no stranger to futures. She began to know about futures in 2002. After 2008, she also traded futures for a long time. According to reports, there were about 20 or 30 local traders doing futures like her at that time. Li Zhongfang has made soybeans, soybean oil, soybean meal and other varieties, but also participated in delivery. In recent years, under the influence of the temporary reserve policy, many people, including Li Zhongfang, have left the futures market.

And spot business in the past two years is not easy for traders like her, first, the competition is more fierce, and the other is to take greater risks. In particular, protein beans sent to Shandong may be mixed with genetically modified varieties, and although the probability is only 1/1000, they may be rejected by manufacturers. She even told reporters that when the conditions were ripe, she would go to foreign land to specialize in growing non-GM soybeans.

Because of the high yield of corn and soybeans this year, she does not expect the market to be short of grain, but she has no intention of storing more soybeans. Her warehouse still has hundreds of tons of soybeans stored in 2011, and there is no shortage of sales because of its good quality.

The market risk behind the bumper harvest should be vigilant.

During the period of grain cultivation, blind cultivation due to lack of information and guidance still leads to high yield and poor harvest in many places.

In Xiaohongqi Yingzi Village, Xigang Town, Heihe, Li Yan, who is harvesting corn, told reporters that many people in her village lost planting soybeans last year, and most of them changed to miscellaneous grains this year, but the price is lower and it is still a compensation.

This year, their corn output there can reach 24,000 jin per hectare, and the profit can be more than 4,000 yuan. in spite of this, she thinks that farmers do not dare to contract land, because for them, farming is more dependent on heaven for food. As for next year's harvest and price, she is not at all sure.

Sun Tiecheng's bumper harvest this year was also bought by hard work. during the corn planting period, he slept less than two hours a day, but fortunately he had a bumper harvest in the first year of planting. According to him, a corn grower he knew lost a lot of money last year because of a poor harvest.

In addition to using advanced farming machinery, Sun Tiecheng even bought a stake in an agricultural bank. He said the biggest advantage is that he can give priority to loans and enjoy corresponding policy support.

But he admits that the corn varieties he grows are particularly fertilizer-intensive, applying 1200 jin of fertilizer per cropland this year, while the figure may reach 1500 jin next year.

As for the form of the direct subsidy policy after the temporary storage of soybeans is cancelled, many people are not sure.

Judging from the visits, farmers, major grain growers, and traders all look forward to the national policy, and the policy has a greater impact on the land growers, but the impact on the spot prices of soybeans and corn needs further observation.

With regard to this year's soybean direct subsidy policy, Wang Zhankui also talked about his point of view. although the state has announced the direct subsidy policy and target price, he believes that it is difficult to confirm the base for farmers' sales price, grain quality, and output, and it is difficult to operate. in particular, the operational rules of the soybean direct subsidy policy have not yet been issued, and he still has doubts about how to implement it in the later stage.

This person who has dealt with grain all his life also has a certain understanding of futures. He hopes that a delivery bank can be set up in Moqi, "which will provide local farmers with more accurate information on food prices, facilitate the adjustment of planting structure and the development of order agriculture."