Overstocking of Hybrid Maize alleviates the surplus of Hybrid Rice

From October 23 to 24, the National Agricultural Technology extension Service Center held an autumn meeting to analyze the seed production, supply and demand situation of major crops in 2014 in Tianjin. The meeting summarized and analyzed the seed production of major crops such as corn, rice, wheat, rape, cotton and soybean in 2014 and the seed market demand in 2015. The heads of 32 provincial seed management departments provided information on the supply of seeds for major crops this year, seed production and seed consumption next year.

There are two situations in seed production of spring and summer sowing crops.

The total seed yield of ● hybrid maize and hybrid rice decreased significantly compared with the same period last year.

● cotton and soybean seed yields are generally stable.

The total seed output of hybrid corn and hybrid rice decreased significantly compared with the same period last year. In 2014, the national hybrid maize seed production harvest area of 2.94 million mu, the country's new seed production of about 1.01 billion kg, the total output decreased by 370 million kg compared with last year. In 2014, the area of hybrid rice seed production is about 1.4 million mu, and the harvest area is 1.24 million mu. The country's new seed production is about 230 million kg, with a total output of 42 million kg less than that of last year.

The reporter learned that there are two reasons for the substantial decrease in the total seed production of the above two crops: first, the area of seed production is reduced, the area of maize seed production is 900000 mu less than that of last year, and the area of rice seed production is 240000 mu less than that of last year. Second, it is adversely affected by meteorological disasters. As for corn, the sowing period of the bases in the main producing areas of Gansu and Xinjiang encountered low temperatures and continuous high temperatures in late July, resulting in poor pollination and seed setting rates of some varieties in the two places, and the per unit yield decreased by 8% to 10%. The severe drought in Chaoyang, Liaoning and Yili, Xinjiang, and other places led to the failure of about 10,000 mu of corn seed production bases. In terms of rice, Jiangsu Province encountered a historically rare low temperature and continuous overcast and rainy weather in August, resulting in 160000 mu of second-line rice seed production scrapped due to low temperature transfer, resulting in a yield reduction of 20 million kg. Affected by the typhoon, the yield of rice seed production in Fujian Province has been reduced by more than 3 million kilograms.

The seed yield of cotton and soybean is stable as a whole. In 2014, the hybrid cotton seed production area was 43000 mu, and the new hybrid cotton seeds were 3.7 million kg. The area of conventional cotton seed production is 1.24 million mu, and the new production of conventional cotton seed is 130 million kg. In 2014, the area of soybean seed production in China was 3.15 million mu, with 450 million kg of new soybean seeds produced.

Seed supply and seed production in autumn and winter are optimistic.

The ● winter wheat seed market runs smoothly and the price is flat.

The ● hybrid winter rape seed market runs smoothly, and the price rises slightly.

Winter wheat seeds can fully meet the needs of field planting. In the autumn of 2014, the breeding area of winter wheat in various parts of the country is about 11 million mu, and it is estimated that 4.5 billion kg of new seeds will be produced. This year, the new winter wheat seeds are full and a thousand seeds are big, which fully meet the field planting needs in terms of quantity, quality and variety structure. therefore, the winter wheat seed market runs smoothly and the market terminal price is the same as that of last year. But on the whole, the total seed requirement of winter wheat may decrease with the decrease of planting area.

The seed production area of hybrid winter rape increased. In the autumn of 2014, the actual area of hybrid rape seed production in China was 128000 mu, with an increase in area, and it is estimated that 9.48 million kg of new seeds can be produced. The winter rape seed market is running smoothly this year, and the market terminal price is slightly higher than that of last year. The main reason is that due to the increase of land transfer area and the progress made in mechanized harvesting of rape, the planting area of winter rape in some areas rebounded slightly in 2014, but due to the balance between supply and demand of total seed supply, there was no abnormal phenomenon in the market.

The seed supply and demand situation of major crops will improve next year.

● Hybrid Maize seed inventory pressure will be alleviated

The seed surplus of ● three-line hybrid rice is serious, and the seed supply and demand of two-line hybrid rice is basically balanced.

● balance of supply and demand of cotton and soybean seeds

The surplus of hybrid maize seeds has been alleviated. The effective stock of hybrid maize seeds dropped to about 1 billion kg at the end of 2014, 200m kg less than expected at the beginning of the year. The total supply of corn seeds sown in spring and summer in 2015 was 1.99 billion kg. It is expected that the area of corn seed will still increase in 2015, the seed consumption is 11.6-1.2 billion kg, and the inventory level at the end of the period is expected to drop to about 800 million kg. In recent years, the continuous increase of corn seed inventory will be curbed, and the corn seed market will bottom out.

On the whole, hybrid rice seeds are still in surplus. Although the area of hybrid rice seed production has declined significantly, due to the rebound of "double to single area" in major rice producing areas and the rebound of conventional rice area, hybrid rice seed stocks still reached 125 million kg in 2014. The total supply of hybrid rice seeds in 2015 was 355 million kg, and the total seed demand for field seeds and exports in 2015 is expected to be about 245 million kg. It is expected that the inventory level at the end of the period will drop to about 110 million kg, and the market pressure will be alleviated next year. From the structural point of view, the seed surplus of three-line hybrid rice is serious, the seed supply and demand of two-line hybrid rice has been basically balanced, and the seed supply of two-line hybrid rice lines seriously affected may be tight.

Balance between supply and demand of cotton and soybean seeds. It is estimated that the national cotton planting area will shrink to 57 million mu in 2015. Among them, the planting area of conventional cotton is about 43 million mu and that of hybrid cotton is about 14 million mu and 7 million kg respectively. 3.7 million kg of hybrid cotton seeds were newly produced in 2014, with a stock of 4 million kg. The supply of hybrid cotton seeds in 2015 was 7.7 million kg, and 130 million kg of new conventional cotton seeds were produced in 2014. Therefore, cotton seeds can meet the needs of field seeds in 2015.

450 million kilograms of new soybean seeds were produced in 2014, and it is estimated that the planting area of soybeans in China will be about 90 million mu in 2014, and about 240 million kilograms of commercial seeds will be needed, which will be able to meet the needs of field seeds in 2015.

Market echo

At present, the seed market of two miscellaneous crops is in the period of the most severe overcapacity and the most serious oversupply since the market-oriented reform in 2000. When can it be reversed? Some people think that it will be in the year after next year. I have talked and seen with many colleagues and front-line business staff, and I am far from so optimistic. First, according to the general market law, from a serious overcapacity and a crisis of oversupply to a balance between supply and demand or a shortage of supply, even if the demand is basically stable, we still need to go through a long period of de-stocking and a considerable number of enterprises shut down and merge, that is, "pouring milk" (seed transfer) and "killing cows" (shutting down and transferring enterprises). Now this situation is not obvious. Many companies are still holding up, despite high inventories on their financial books and in frozen warehouses. Second, the current competition situation is complex, which is not only the competition among large enterprises, but also the competition between large enterprises and a large number of localized small enterprises, and the competition between standardized operation and non-standard operation. It is true that the seed production area of large enterprises has decreased, but it is not enough to look at the data of large enterprises.

In this case, what should the enterprise do? Small businesses have their own way of doing things. Large enterprises should have a clear understanding of the situation. First, they should do a good job of "shrinking" homework. If the market is swept away by big waves, those who go along with it will prosper, and against the trend, there will certainly be problems with the rate of return on investment, and it will be difficult for the superficial digital performance to withstand the wind and waves in the short term. The storm of the market is still behind. The second is to do a good job of "releasing" homework, practice internal skills, strengthen combat effectiveness, and enhance core competitiveness.

-- Tian Bingchuan, Deputy General Manager of China seed Group

After the policy adjustment, cotton prices have fallen, and the purchase price of seed cotton has dropped from about 4 yuan per catty in 2013 to about 3 yuan this year. Cotton farmers' income from cotton planting has decreased, and even losses, cotton planting enthusiasm has decreased, the area will certainly decline, the demand for seeds will be reduced accordingly, and the enthusiasm for buying seeds will also be reduced, which has now been reflected. Guoxin's response is: 1. To Xinjiang cotton area development, has invested more than 100 million yuan to build R & D center, production base, processing center. two。 While adhering to the cotton industry, we will actively open up the scope of crop seed management and enter into corn, wheat and other fields.

Lu Huaiyu, President of Rural Technical Service of Guoxin

The seed industry is different from the general industry in that its production and sales links are discontinuous, and the pressure on inventory is two or three years. After missing the best sales period, the depreciation rate is very fast, and the risk of blind production is very great, just like selling fish. It's worthless if you don't sell it when it's fresh. Enterprises are the main body of the market. When they encounter problems in the market economy, they should first rely on themselves. Enterprises should change their competitive strategy from cost reduction to R & D innovation, and improve their decision-making level and management ability. Last year, Dr. Jin did not produce seeds, and this year there is only a small amount of seed production. Next year, we will be able to travel light.

-- Yan Yongsheng, Chairman of Henan Golden Doctor seed Co., Ltd.

Although the area of corn seed production this year is about 30% less than that of previous years, the inventory of corn seeds can not be substantially alleviated, mainly as follows: the mainstream varieties in the market are all produced by the company in a planned way and occupy a certain market, and the inventory was not large last year. The overstocked varieties in the market are either due to the loss of market recognition or due to the loss of market operation ability of enterprises, so the inventory backlog is very difficult to reoccupy the market. It is expected that the competition in the corn seed market will be more fierce and cruel next spring!

Wang Yadong, Marketing Department of Anhui Longping Hi-Tech seed Industry Co., Ltd.

Although the inventory backlog in the seed industry is serious at present, some competitive seed enterprises are not worried about the market problem, and the inventory backlog is a normal phenomenon in the adjustment stage, even a good thing. Zhongyan seed industry is trying to seize the opportunities brought about by industry adjustment and make itself grow up rapidly through mergers and acquisitions.

General Manager of Sichuan Zhongyan seed Co., Ltd.