China's grain production has increased year after year, supply and demand is still tight, per unit yield can still "jump" more.

At present, the autumn and winter planting of wheat across the country is coming to an end. China has had a bumper wheat harvest for many years, but its stable development still faces some shortcomings. Under the rigid constraints of land and water resources, the decline of comparative benefits of planting, and the impact of the international market, how to achieve stable yield and increase production of wheat in China? In early November, the reporter went to the main grain producing areas to conduct research and interviews.

The contradiction of insufficient production needs to appear.

Wheat is one of the two major food rations in China, and 40% of the people in the country mainly eat pasta. Although China has increased wheat production year after year, it has shown a net import trend for three consecutive years, and wheat prices are under great pressure.

Recently, a group of data has attracted people's attention: China imported 2.52 billion jin of wheat in 2011, 7.4 billion jin in 2012 and 10.51 billion jin in 2013, and imported 5.46 billion jin in the first eight months of this year, an increase of 27.7% over the same period last year. Although the proportion of wheat imports to domestic output is still very small, the contradiction between insufficient production and demand has begun to emerge.

The bumper wheat harvest and the increase in imports "meet", which puts pressure on the stability of domestic wheat prices. According to the data, the global wheat production increased significantly in 2014 and 2015, and the relationship between supply and demand was loose. International wheat inventory is expected to rise by about 1 million tons, inventory continues to be high, and international wheat prices are low. Since November last year, the domestic market price of wheat has been higher than the import-to-shore tax price for nine consecutive months. In September this year, the hard red winter wheat in the Gulf of Mexico of the United States was about 1.35 yuan per jin after landing tax, 0.12 yuan lower than the price of domestic high-quality wheat sales area.

In fact, it is not feasible to import wheat on a large scale from the international market. Yu Xinrong, vice minister of agriculture, said that at present, the trade volume of wheat in the international market is about 250 billion jin, which is equivalent to China's wheat output. Wheat exporters are concentrated in the United States, Canada, Australia, the European Union, Argentina and Russia. The reality is that these six countries and regions account for more than 85 percent of the world's total wheat exports, while developing countries rely on imports for 2/3 of their wheat consumption. Experts predict that China's wheat consumption will increase by more than 10 billion jin by 2020. According to the new national food security strategy, it is the primary starting point for wheat production to gain a foothold at home.

In addition to the upside-down prices at home and abroad, the constant minimum purchase price of domestic wheat sends a different signal from the past. Taking into account the cost of grain production, market supply and demand, comparative efficiency, international market prices and the development of the grain industry, the minimum purchase price of wheat next year will remain unchanged at the 2014 level, the National Development and Reform Commission announced a few days ago. Since 2007, the minimum purchase price of wheat has risen from 0.72 yuan per catty to 1.18 yuan per catty in 2014. The unilateral rise in wheat prices has almost become the consensus of all kinds of market players. The industry believes that when the minimum purchase price of wheat is raised in successive years, the price will remain unchanged next year, indicating that raising prices to mobilize farmers' enthusiasm for planting is not the only option. In fact, since 2011, due to the high market price, many wheat producing areas have not launched the lowest price wheat purchase plan year after year. In 2013, the purchase volume in most of the major producing areas decreased significantly, and the impact of the policy on wheat prices began to weaken.

Increased constraints on resources and benefits

Wheat is the only crop to achieve "eleven consecutive growth" among the three major cereals, and the stability of area is the key factor for the stable yield and increase of wheat. At present, planting efficiency and water resources constraints affect the stability of wheat area.

Whether the wheat planting area can be stable and whether farmers are willing to increase investment mainly depends on economic benefits. Zhao Guangcai, a member of the wheat expert guidance group of the Ministry of Agriculture, said that among the three major grains, the planting benefit of wheat is the lowest. In recent years, the net income of wheat per mu is more than 100 yuan, which is about 100 yuan lower than corn and nearly 200 yuan lower than rice. Although the national minimum purchase price has increased every year, the overall price increase is still lower than the cost rise.

A survey by the price department of Weihai City, Shandong Province shows that the purchase price of wheat has exceeded that of corn, but because the yield level of corn per mu is significantly higher than that of wheat, the income level of wheat is still lower than that of corn. Compared with the income of tens of thousands of yuan per mu of vegetables in the greenhouse, the problem of low efficiency of wheat is more prominent.

In an interview with this reporter, many farmers said: "if we have been busy growing wheat for more than half a year and earn only one or two hundred yuan per mu, it is better to earn more than two days' work. If it were not for the machine harvest, we would not want to plant it." Based on the minimum purchase price of 2.24 yuan per kilogram of wheat in 2013 and the average yield of 343.6 kilograms per mu, the gross income of wheat per mu is 770 yuan, which is only 1/3 of the average monthly wage of migrant workers in 2012, while the net income is only 150 yuan. It is no exaggeration to say that it is better to work for a month than to grow a crop of grain.

Water resources constraints also affect the area of wheat. "Wheat needs to be watered four to five times a season and consumes 250 to 300 cubic meters of water." Yu Zhenwen, an academician of the Chinese Academy of Engineering and a wheat cultivator, said that the growth period of wheat is mainly in the winter and spring when Rain Water is less, and it is necessary to water and replenish soil moisture to meet the growth needs. Among the 80 million mu of wheat in Henan, there are 18 million mu of dryland wheat without irrigated conditions, 54 million mu of wheat in Shandong and 13 million mu of dryland wheat, and more than 20 million mu of wheat in Huaibei, Anhui Province do not have good irrigation conditions. There is a shortage of water resources in the north of Huang-Huai and North China, except for irrigation from the Yellow River, other areas mainly rely on pumping groundwater to irrigate wheat, especially in North China, which not only increases the production cost, but also forms the underground funnel area because of overexploitation.

The comprehensive treatment of serious over-exploitation of groundwater in North China and the appropriate withdrawal of some wheat has become an unfavorable factor for the stability of wheat area in Huang-Huai region. Wei Baigang, director of the Hebei Provincial Department of Agriculture, said that the province needs about 7 billion cubic meters of water for wheat irrigation, accounting for half of agricultural water consumption. In the past 10 years, the groundwater level has decreased by an average of 1.37 meters per year, and drought and water shortage has become the biggest obstacle to the wheat market in Hebei Province. According to the requirements of the national pilot project for comprehensive treatment of over-exploitation of groundwater, Hebei will carry out seasonal fallow in the over-mining area this autumn, and plan to reduce 850000 mu of winter wheat.

However, there are also favorable conditions. The planting of cotton has been reduced in some areas, increasing the space for the expansion of wheat. According to the agricultural regulation, the spring sowing area of cotton in Hebei is 7.23 million mu, down 16.4% from the same period last year; the cotton area in Jiangsu is about 20% lower than that of last year. He Yanzeng, a farmer in Nanwucun Town, Jizhou City, Hebei Province, planted 11 mu of cotton last year. This year, I heard that the state has cancelled the temporary collection and storage of cotton. He has planted only 6 mu: "next year, he may not grow cotton at all, so consider planting wheat at all."

Preponderant area for increasing production

In order to stabilize wheat production, we must highlight the advantageous areas. As long as effective measures are taken to speed up the popularization of new technologies, it is possible to increase wheat yield per unit area.

"the northern winter wheat region refers to the five provinces of Hebei, Shandong, Henan, Jiangsu and Anhui in Huang-Huai-Hai, where three out of every four steamed buns on the table are produced by these five provinces." Zeng Yande, director of the planting Department of the Ministry of Agriculture, said that to stabilize wheat production, we must highlight the advantageous areas. From the point of view of the whole country, the key point is to do a good job in the five provinces of Huang-Huai-Hai. The wheat output of the five provinces accounts for 76% of the country's total. In the past 10 years, the country's wheat production has increased by 70.9 billion jin, and these five provinces have contributed 90 percent.

In recent years, the construction of agricultural infrastructure in Huang-Huai-Hai region has achieved great results, which has played an important role in promoting the stable increase of grain production. There is less rainfall in spring and summer in Henan this year, and wheat production can be greatly increased. The important reason is that the irrigated land area is large, there is a meteorological drought, but there is no large-scale agricultural drought. Yu Zhenwen said that if the wheat fields in the Huang-Huai-Hai wheat region have irrigation conditions and develop water-saving irrigation, the per unit yield will increase steadily. It is estimated that under the existing irrigation quantity, using comprehensive water-saving production systems such as water-saving varieties, improving soil fertility and water-saving cultivation, the per unit yield can be increased by 10% in the near future and 20% in the long term. In the "wheat dominant regional layout planning", whether it is low yield to middle yield, middle yield to high yield, or high yield and higher yield, all involve Huang-Huai-Hai wheat region.

According to the estimation of experts, there is still much room for the per unit area yield of wheat to continue to increase. The theoretical yield of wheat in Huang-Huai-Hai region can reach more than 800 kg. At present, the average yield per mu in this area is about 400 kg, less than half of the theoretical yield. The per unit yield of wheat in Shandong and Henan is more than 400 kg per mu, which is 40 kg higher than that in Anhui. Judging from the current practice of creating high yields, the yield of 10,000 mu demonstration films in some places has reached more than 700 kg per mu, more than double the national average of 337 kg per mu. As long as effective measures are taken to speed up the popularization of new technologies, it is possible to increase wheat yield per unit area.

How to turn the potential of per unit yield of wheat into actual yield? Zeng Yande said that in the future, it is necessary to increase investment, strengthen the construction of high-standard farmland, and enhance the ability to resist natural disasters. In conjunction with the implementation of the National General Plan for the Construction of High-standard farmland, priority will be given to the transformation of low-producing areas at 33 degrees north latitude, with emphasis on improving the Shajiang black soil in northern Jiangsu, Huaibei, and southern Henan, and building a number of high-standard farmland with drought and waterlogging, so as to further increase the proportion of protected irrigation area of wheat. It is also necessary to strengthen the construction of the quality of cultivated land, especially to increase the content of organic matter, so as to "hide grain in the land."

Zeng Yande stressed that the key to increasing per unit yield depends on scientific and technological progress. First, it is necessary to promote innovation in the seed industry. Wheat is a conventional variety, and some seed enterprises do not pay much attention to the R & D and innovation of varieties. At the same time, farmers in some places are used to keeping their own seeds, resulting in the degradation of varieties. In the future, it is necessary to speed up the selection and breeding of a number of new varieties that are resistant to cold, drought, disease and heat damage. Second, we should promote technological integration and innovation. It is necessary to integrate a number of regional and standardized high-yield and high-efficiency technical models, especially the technical models of water-saving varieties, agronomy, and facilities, in order to "store grain in technology."