Meat, fruit, egg and vegetable "game"mild inflation" gradually throughout the year

Shanghai, October 10 (Reporter Chen Aiping and Yuan Junbao) data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on the 10th showed that in October 2014, the overall level of consumer prices across the country rose 1.6% from a year earlier, unchanged from the previous month. Among agricultural products, the prices of fresh eggs and fruits rose year-on-year, while the prices of fresh vegetables and fresh meat decreased. The prices of non-food commodities rose slightly.

Overall, factors such as a stable monetary environment and a steady decline in the overall prices of agricultural products are gradually turning the market expectation of "moderate inflation for the whole year" into reality.

Meat, fruit, egg and vegetable "game" with each other

The prices of agricultural products "played a game" with each other in October. Fresh eggs and fruits were still "advancing by leaps and bounds", while fresh vegetables and meat were "quiet": egg prices and fresh fruit prices rose 16.4% and 15.2% respectively compared with the same period last year, affecting the overall consumer price level by about 0.14 and 0.3 percentage points. Pork prices and fresh vegetable prices fell 3.1% and 7.2% respectively compared with the same period last year, affecting the overall consumer price level by about 0.10 and 0.24 percentage points.

According to monitoring data from the Ministry of Agriculture, by the last week of October, the average price of eggs across the country rose 18.6 percent from a year earlier, with the average price of eggs in major producing provinces such as Hebei and Liaoning even rising 26.2 percent from the same period last year.

The rise in fresh fruit prices is even more real for residents: the reporter visited a number of large commercial supermarkets and vegetable markets in Shanghai. Fuji Apple costs 9.98 yuan to 12.98 yuan per jin, which is 1 yuan to 3 yuan higher than in the same period last year. "buying fruit now is like buying it!" Liu Hua, a retired aunt in Shanghai, said she bought three apples and spent nearly 30 yuan.

By contrast, the mild weather has created favorable conditions for the decline in vegetable prices. Yu Qiumei, a senior statistician in the City Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, said that the national average temperature in October was higher than in the same period of the normal year, which was conducive to the growth of vegetables, which also contributed to the month-on-month decline in vegetable prices.

According to vendors at the Guangyuan Road vegetable Market in Shanghai, compared with August and September, the prices of some leafy vegetables are almost halved. Previously, green vegetables worth more than 3 yuan per catty and chicken hairy vegetables worth more than 4 yuan per catty are now less than 2 yuan and 3 yuan per catty respectively.

In addition, the reporter learned from the Shanghai Agricultural products Center Wholesale Market Co., Ltd., that the wholesale price of pork (white striped pig) in the market in October was further lower than that in August and September, and the current average price per kilogram was 18.28 yuan, which was also lower than the level of the same period last year.

The rise in non-food commodity prices should not be underestimated.

Although the prices of most agricultural products have stopped rising, pushing food prices down 0.2% month-on-month in October, it is worth noting that some non-food commodity prices have risen both month-on-month and year-on-year. The impact on price levels and consumer spending is gradually emerging:

Among them, the most significant is the 2.4% year-on-year increase in clothing prices, which is only slightly lower than the increase in food prices. Of this total, clothing processing service fees increased by 5.3%, and clothing prices increased by 2.4%. In terms of month-on-month comparison, the price of clothing increased by 1% month-on-month, significantly more than in other categories.

"when it comes to the change of season, the rise in clothing prices is also expected, but now jackets are often thousands of yuan, leather shoes are often thousands of yuan, even if shopping malls through full reduction promotion is still at the level of 500 yuan to 600 yuan, it is really unbearable." Xu Jin, a white-collar worker in Shanghai, said that it would cost him half a month's salary to buy clothes in another season.

In addition, the prices of family services and higher education rose by 9.0 per cent and 3.8 per cent respectively, while housing rents rose 2.7 per cent year-on-year, also exceeding the increase in food prices.

Among the four major categories of "clothing, food, housing and transportation" in which people live, only "travel" prices have been lowered: crude oil prices in the international market have fluctuated downward, domestic oil products prices have been reduced, and automotive fuel, gasoline and diesel prices have fallen by 5.6% and 7.8% respectively compared with the same period last year.

"moderate inflation" is approaching throughout the year

From January to October this year, consumer prices rose 2.1%, and the market expectation of "moderate inflation for the whole year" has gradually become clear.

Pan Xiangdong, chief economist of Galaxy Securities, analyzed that the current economy still shows a lack of effective demand, monetary policy is sound and oriented loose, and the impact of liquidity on prices is still limited; under the impact of US monetary policy, international commodity prices are low and imported inflation factors are small. While non-food prices are in the normal range of fluctuations, the impact of exceeding expectations has not been foreseen for the time being.

At the same time, the prices of agricultural products with large changes in CPI will not rise significantly, which is generally accepted by the market.

Relatively speaking, the current stock of laying hens is low, generally speaking, it is difficult to change the situation that the supply of eggs is less than the demand, and it is expected that egg prices will rise again in the future. However, the impact of the strength of egg prices on the overall price level will be offset by a decline in other commodities.

Wang Xian, an analyst at the Shouguang vegetable Index Center, believes that as southern vegetable varieties continue to increase on the market, if not affected by special weather, vegetable prices will be difficult to pick up.

Experts from the Shandong Animal Husbandry and Veterinary Information Center believe that the recent continuous decline in pig prices, the epidemic situation and other reasons have led to the concentration of pigs, and the stock preparation momentum of slaughtering enterprises is not obvious, so that it is difficult for the pig market to have obvious support and continue to be weak.

Tang Jianwei, a senior macro analyst at the Bank of Communications, said that the key to affecting CPI year-on-year depends on the fluctuations of new price increases. At present, under the background of slow and stable economic growth, the new price increase factor of CPI in the fourth quarter will not rise significantly.