China's food security faces five historic challenges! What are the responses?

The issue of food security is a very fundamental problem in China. Over the past decade, China has continuously increased grain production, and the self-sufficiency rate of grain is close to 98%, which has made hard-won achievements, but at the same time, we should also see that China's food security is facing many complex and profound problems, many of which are new problems and challenges arising with economic development, which need us to study carefully.

The first challenge is the ceiling effect of international food prices on us.

At present, the price of our domestic grain is higher than that of the international market, for example, the domestic price of grain is 10% higher than the international price, that is, the price of each ton is 600 Murray and 800 yuan higher than the international market price, and the price of meat is twice that of the international meat price. It can be said that although our grain is rich in production, it has high production costs and low efficiency, and has no price advantage compared with international grain commodities.

Although we currently impose tariff protection on domestic grain and impose tariffs on imports that exceed quotas, to some extent, this price disadvantage has been alleviated. However, in view of the continued increase in the cost of domestic grain production, it is estimated that in another 5-7 years, the current tariff level will not be sufficient to maintain the price advantage of domestic grain, that is to say, even if we use tariff protection. The price in the international market will still be lower than the domestic price.

The cost of domestic grain production remains high, mainly due to two reasons, one is the rise of material input costs, the other is the rise of service prices. Last year, our net income per mu of land was 682 yuan, including the remuneration of farmers' own labor, which was 2.4% lower than the previous year, while the prices of various agricultural services increased by 8%. What is the concept of net income of 682 yuan? In other words, farmers' income of 365 days a year on an acre of land can be earned as long as they work outside for seven days. The opportunity cost of agriculture is so high that it is not conducive to farmers' enthusiasm in agricultural production.

The second challenge is the floor effect caused by the shrinking space for domestic agricultural subsidies.

We mentioned above that there is no advantage in the price of domestic agricultural products, so can we replenish the price difference to farmers by means of agricultural subsidies? I'm afraid it's very difficult.

Because China has joined the WTO, the General Agreement on tariffs stipulates that our direct subsidies on costs cannot exceed 8.5% of the total output value. At present, the level of subsidies we already have is nearly 10% of the total output value, and there is no room for subsidies. Recently, some foreign cotton merchants have begun to file a complaint with the WTO because our subsidies for cotton are too high. Therefore, our room for operation in the part of the yellow box policy of the WTO is getting smaller and smaller, which makes the floor of our domestic grain prices getting higher and higher, while the ceiling of the international market prices mentioned above is getting lower and lower. As a result, the space for the use of agricultural subsidies and other policy means to solve food security will continue to be compressed, and the effect will become worse and worse.

The third challenge is the tremendous pressure from the deterioration of the environment and ecology.

In 1978, we used a total of 8 million tons of chemical fertilizers every year. By 2013, our annual use of chemical fertilizers and pesticides had reached 59 million tons and 1.8 million tons respectively. And only 30% of these fertilizers and pesticides are absorbed by crops, and the other 70% enter the ecosystem through soil, groundwater and so on. Less than 40% of the plastic mulch widely used in northern China is recycled every year, and 1 million tons of plastic film fragments are left in the field. It is conceivable that this is extremely destructive to the ecological environment of our country. As of 2013, the land polluted by moderate and severe heavy metals in China has reached 50 million mu, and the underground funnel caused by massive pumping of groundwater is 220000 square kilometers, mainly in North China. This mode of agricultural production is definitely not sustainable.

The fourth challenge is the continued decline in the agricultural labour force.

According to our estimation, at present, the number of people who are really engaged in direct agricultural labor is 240 million, and of these 240 million people, a large proportion are part-time farmers. The improvement of the diversification of farmers' income is very good for farmers themselves, but it is very difficult for the government to formulate targeted agricultural policies.

The per capita net income of farmers in 2013 was 8896 yuan. Two important turning points took place this year. The first is that among farmers' income, wage income exceeds household operating income for the first time, and the second turning point is that among farmers' income, the proportion of agricultural income is less than 25% for the first time. In other words, as the proportion of agricultural income in the total income of farmers is shrinking, our policy subsidies for agriculture to farmers, the incentive effect on farmers is very limited.

The fifth challenge is the uncertainty of the changing factors of the macroeconomic environment.

This year, China's economy has entered a new normal, and it is bound to produce many new phenomena and events. Township enterprises which had emerged as a new force and flourished in the 1980s have been almost wiped out in the 1990s, which shows that the impact of the external economic policy environment on the agricultural economy can not be underestimated.

Since 2001, the growth rate of the proportion of rural labor force going out of employment has begun to decrease year by year, that is to say, the surplus labor force in the agricultural sector will be less and less, and the demographic dividend will approach zero. In such a new normal, if the growth of agricultural income is stagnant without a significant increase in non-agricultural income, it will certainly create a very serious situation to improve farmers' income and their enthusiasm to engage in agriculture.