Production and marketing should be arranged according to the seed market

After entering November, a large number of late autumn cabbages in Hebei, Beijing and Shandong are on the market, and the supply is very abundant. On November 18, the wholesale price of Chinese cabbage in the Xinfadi market was 0.25 to 0.3 yuan per jin, up 10% from the previous week, down 35.29% from the previous month, and 35.29% from the same period last year.

Recent feedback from the producing area shows that this autumn, the planting area of Chinese cabbage in North and East China is basically the same as that in the same period last year, there are increases and decreases in different places, and the supply situation should be basically the same as last year. However, the meteorological conditions are better than last year, and the yield per mu has increased, so that the total output of Chinese cabbage in this autumn and winter is slightly higher than that in the same period last year. Farmers in Zaozhuang, Shandong Province reported that the yield of Chinese cabbage per mu was generally about 10,000 jin last year, and it is generally more than 10,000 jin this year, and some plots can reach 14000 jin. The bumper harvest of Chinese cabbage this autumn and winter is mainly due to the increase in yield per mu.

In the case of a slightly larger increase in total output, the price of Chinese cabbage has dropped sharply compared with the same period last year, mainly due to the following three reasons:

Recently, the prices of many kinds of vegetables are significantly lower than those in the same period last year. Judging from the statistics of the Xinfadi market, the weighted average price of vegetables has been at its lowest level in the past five years since March this year. There is a price comparison relationship between Chinese cabbage and other vegetables, and the decline in the prices of other varieties of vegetables will also drive the decline in the price of Chinese cabbage.

The status of Chinese cabbage as the top dish for residents in northern China in winter has been shaken. In recent years, due to the abundant and abundant supply of vegetables in winter, people seldom store Chinese cabbage in winter. November is the time when a large number of northern Chinese cabbages are on the market, and citizens no longer store cabbages in winter, resulting in a concentration of listing volume, slow sales progress, and even some difficulties.

The housework of storing Chinese cabbage in winter has evolved into social labor. With the development of society, the work of storing Chinese cabbage in winter has improved from scattered to each household to large-scale and professional storage, mainly carried out by farmers and dealers. In the past two years, most of the commercial cold storage has suffered losses, so this year, the willingness of the storage companies to store Chinese cabbage in winter has been watered down, and the pressure has shifted to farmers.

No matter who stores, always hope to make a profit, only optimistic about the late price, there is the motivation to store in winter. There are two uncertain factors in the price trend of Chinese cabbage in the later stage.

First, it may be a cold winter this year. In the summer of 2014, El Ni ñ o has been formed in the western Pacific Ocean, which reflects that in winter, some meteorological stations have predicted that this winter may be a cold winter. Once it enters a cold winter, the most direct impact is the slow growth of vegetables in facilities in the north, resulting in a decline in output per unit time and a rise in prices. In the south, there may be an increase in low temperature, overcast and rainy weather, which will also affect the yield of vegetables, resulting in a tight supply of vegetables in winter.

Second, in the spring of 2014, it was difficult to sell Chinese cabbage across the country. This phenomenon is likely to affect the production of Chinese cabbage next spring, making the supply of new and old Chinese cabbage broken.

Due to the uncertain factors in the price trend of Chinese cabbage in the later stage, it is difficult to judge whether there will be a loss in winter storage of Chinese cabbage, so it is feasible to store some Chinese cabbage properly in winter.

The winter storage of Chinese cabbage in Tangshan, Hebei Province is carried out in the cellar, which can keep it as it is. After getting out of the cellar, the leaves are still green and the price is higher. Most of the winter storage of Chinese cabbage in southern Hebei and Shandong is carried out on the ground, which reduces the amount of labor by palletizing and covering the cabbage. These two methods are more cost-effective than commercial cold storage and have a certain price advantage.

Therefore, in the case of a bumper harvest of Chinese cabbage this autumn, farmers do not need to be in a hurry to sell, but can store it properly in winter.

In the past, some people suggested that farmers should think backwards in growing vegetables and not reduce their seeds just because the price is high this year and the price is low. This proposal is reasonable, but it is not entirely advisable. Because in the case of everyone thinking in reverse, there will be several consecutive production cycles of low or high prices. Therefore, when arranging planting plans, farmers must pay attention to the sales of seeds. Once the seeds are popular, the vegetables of this variety may be unsalable.

Similarly, to judge the planting of Chinese cabbage next spring, we need to pay attention to the sales and price trend of seeds now. If the sales of Chinese cabbage seeds cool down next spring, Chinese cabbage stored in winter may sell well in spring. If cabbage seeds are still popular now, then the cabbage in the hands of farmers should be realized at the right time.