It is difficult to judge the direction of reducing oil meal from rape area in the new season.

A Where did the green rape field go?

In the early winter season of previous years, shuttle in Jingchu land, green rape fields endless, artificial transplanting rape such as the formation of soldiers general neat, very pleasing to the eye.

Nowadays, even if you drive thousands of kilometers, you still can't find large areas of continuous rape fields, while wheat fields, citrus orchards, cotton fields and abandoned rice fields come into view from time to time.

Where did the green rape field go?

"The planting area of rape in Jingzhou City this year is not optimistic, with a decrease of about 20% compared with the same period last year, that is, the planting area of rape in 2015 is about 3.08 million mu, a decrease of 770,000 mu." Sun Wei, general manager of trade branch of China Textile Agriculture Hubei Co., Ltd., told futures daily reporter, Hubei Province Jingzhou City is one of the main rape planting areas in China, in recent years restricted by a variety of factors, rape planting area declined rapidly, especially this year.

It is understood that over the years, Jingzhou City rape planting area stable in about 3.8 million mu, total output in about 550,000 tons. The local planting methods are mainly as follows: paddy field is mainly machine-ploughed and broadcast, dry land is mainly machine-ploughed and machine-seeded, transplanting area is not large, paddy field accounts for 50% of paddy field area, dry land is oil-cotton hybrid rotation, paddy field yield is 140 kg, dry land yield is about 160 kg.

This year Hubei, Hunan Province and surrounding areas rape planting area has decreased significantly, mainly by the following factors. First, policy adjustments have affected farmers 'planting plans. This year, the No.1 Document of the Central Committee proposed to gradually establish a target price system for agricultural products, continue to adhere to the principle of market pricing, and explore and promote the reform of decoupling the price mechanism of grain and other agricultural products from government subsidies. This year, cotton, soybeans and other agricultural products have been decoupled from the market-supporting policy and targeted market pricing has been implemented. The government has only carried out cotton subsidy pilot projects in Xinjiang, resulting in a large reduction in cotton planting area in the interior. Next year, the government may cancel the rapeseed market purchase policy. Over the past few years, farmers have become accustomed to the government's market purchase. With pricing, farmers have a bottom line in their hearts and know what to plant and what not to plant. As of the beginning of rapeseed planting this year, there is still no conclusion on how to adjust the rapeseed purchase policy next year. There are uncertain factors in the policy, which frustrates farmers 'enthusiasm for planting rapeseed. Many farmers change rape fields into wheat fields.

Second, the economic benefit of planting rape is poor, and the income of planting rape is not as good as that of planting wheat and other crops. Sun Wei told reporters, One mu wheat yield in 800 jin above, According to this year's market average price 1.03 yuan/catty calculation, Per mu income 824 yuan. The yield per mu of rapeseed is about 300 jin. The average market price of rapeseed this year is 2.45 yuan/catty, and the income per mu is 735 yuan. Two comparison, planting wheat than planting rape more income 89 yuan/mu. In addition, planting rape requires 481 yuan per mu, and planting wheat costs an average of 450 yuan per mu. Overall calculation, planting wheat than planting rape more income 120 yuan/mu.

Thirdly, there is a shortage of rural labor force, while rape planting needs more labor, field management during growth period is also more troublesome, in addition, rape planting, harvesting and other links all rely on manpower, it is difficult to realize mechanized operation, farmers are more willing to plant sowing, harvesting and almost all other crops that can be mechanized operation such as wheat.

In Hubei, Hunan Province a number of counties, cities, reporters see, In addition to individual counties, Cities in order to develop tourism industry is still planting rape in a large area, Most areas this year rape planting area has declined. A number of farmers interviewed said that during this year's rapeseed purchase period, farmers actually sold rapeseed prices that were not higher than in previous years due to strict requirements on rapeseed quality by buyers. Therefore, after rape enters the suitable sowing period this year, many farmers choose to sow wheat and plant rape only in corner plots.

In addition, according to the reporter understands, Anhui and other rape production areas this year planting area also presents a downward trend, many areas rape planting area reduced by about 15%, some areas reduced by more than 20%.

B Transplanting to broadcast will lead to rape yield reduction

In Hubei, Hunan and other provinces of rape main production areas, a lot of rape grows densely, early sowing rape has grown 5-6 leaves, farmers are busy thinning seedlings in the field, and late sowing rape just grew two small leaves, but these small rape is also dense.

According to the reporter understands, Hubei Province Jingmen City this year rape actual planting area estimated in 1.65 million-1.7 million mu, lower than previous years 1.8 million mu, although the planting area reduction is not large, but 50%-60% of rape is broadcast, and in previous years 90% of rape is transplanted.

There is no substantial difference on the surface from transplanting to sowing rape planting mode, but according to experienced farmers and agricultural experts, this will lead to a decrease of about 10% in rape yield.

Compared with transplanting rape, sowing rape is disordered in plant spacing and row spacing. Even if farmers finally want to thin seedlings, it will still restrict the growth of rape roots, branches and pods in the later stage of growth. It can be seen from this that although sowing rape simplifies the sowing method and saves manpower compared with transplanting rape, the yield is damaged in the end.

In the communication with some farmers, the reporter learned that the higher yield of transplanted rape is 400 jin/mu, the medium and low yield is 350 jin/mu, while the yield of sowing rape is only about 300 jin/mu.

Hubei Xinyu Agricultural Development Co., Ltd. business manager Chang Wei told reporters, Because rape growth on water and fertilizer requirements are high, Planting rape artificial investment is large, Many labor force less farmers have not planted, And the change of production mode is more common phenomenon. At present, the main force engaged in agricultural production in rape producing areas is the elderly and women. The land in the producing areas is mainly paddy field, and some areas are hilly terrain. In order to save manpower, farmers have to change the production mode of planting rape from transplanting to sowing, and this production mode will be the mainstream in recent years, and the yield of rape is estimated to be stable and declining.