Why to reduce the quantity of chemical fertilizer in the first place

Since the establishment of chemical fertilizer commercial light storage system in 2004, chemical fertilizer light reserves have only increased, rising from 8 million tons at the beginning to 18 million tons in 2013, with an average annual growth rate of 125%. However, this year's chemical fertilizer light reserves have dropped for the first time. In this round, there is no change in chemical fertilizer light reserves of 50, 000 tons or less, 10-200000 tons by 20%, and more than 200000 tons by 25%.

Why is there a reduction in the light storage of chemical fertilizer? There are three main reasons:

First, great changes have taken place in the supply and demand of chemical fertilizers. When our country established the chemical fertilizer light storage system, the domestic chemical fertilizer output was limited at that time, and it was necessary for manufacturers to maintain production in the off-season. Otherwise, it may appear that the shortage of chemical fertilizer during the peak season of spring ploughing may affect the production of spring ploughing, or the shortage of chemical fertilizer supply during spring ploughing may significantly increase the price of chemical fertilizer and harm the interests of farmers. But now China's chemical fertilizer output has increased greatly, which can fully meet the domestic demand, and we have to rely on a large number of chemical fertilizer exports to maintain the balance between production and marketing. Therefore, the role of ensuring supply of chemical fertilizer light storage has declined, and the scale of chemical fertilizer storage should be reduced.

Second, the negative effects of light reserves on the market are gradually emerging. Large-scale low storage of chemical fertilizer will distort the supply and demand of the market. In the off-season, the supply of chemical fertilizer is tight, pushing up the price; in the peak season, because of concentrated selling, the price of chemical fertilizer will fall again, resulting in the abnormal phenomenon that the price of chemical fertilizer in the off-season is higher than that in the peak season. This not only makes light storage enterprises lose money, but also makes farmers at a loss what to do. In recent years, the negative effect of chemical fertilizer light storage on the market is increasing, and some experts even propose to abolish it.

Third, the enthusiasm of dealers for light storage has declined. According to the dealer, the discount given by the state for the fresh storage of chemical fertilizer is far lower than the enterprise's storage cost, which is not enough to make up for the enterprise's operating cost. The cost of one ton during the whole period of light storage is 110 yuan, the interest on bank loans accounts for only 32% of the total expenses, and 68% of some countries do not have subsidies. In addition, a large number of small and medium-sized dealers do not win the bid, can not get subsidies, they bear the risk of chemical fertilizer storage is greater. In recent years, it often occurs that the price of chemical fertilizer in the off-season is higher than that in the peak season, which makes the dealers who undertake the task of light storage lose money, and the enthusiasm of dealers to undertake storage is significantly lower than that in previous years.

However, the author believes that chemical fertilizer light storage should not be abolished in a short period of time, and the method of reducing the scale of chemical fertilizer fresh storage is the right choice. Because the benefit of chemical fertilizer enterprises is now restricted by structural overcapacity, the operating rate of enterprises is not high, for example, the operating rate of urea enterprises has dropped from 80% last year to less than 70% this year. If the low storage of chemical fertilizer is abolished at once, there will be more dealers waiting to wait and see. During the off-season, the products produced by chemical fertilizer manufacturers have no place to go, so they can only keep cutting prices, and the losses of enterprises are even more severe, and may even cause many chemical fertilizer manufacturers to stop production, which is bound to have a negative impact on the supply of chemical fertilizer for spring ploughing in the following year.

Generally speaking, the system of light storage of chemical fertilizer has played an important role in China's spring ploughing production, but the reform should continue, and it should be better to take a "small step and slow tune" rather than act in haste. Agricultural production is related to national security, chemical fertilizer production as an important part of agricultural production, there can not be major fluctuations. Some experts suggest that we can gradually reduce the quantity, or adjust the bidding method, and then consider gradually abolishing the low storage of chemical fertilizer.