Climate change will greatly affect the seed industry

Agriculture is extremely sensitive to climate and weather conditions. If we can better understand the impact of climate change on crops and their responses, the adaptability of crop production systems to climate change can be greatly improved.

Some countries in Asia and Africa have lost about 280 million tons of potential grain production as a result of climate change, with rising temperatures and prolonged droughts being the main risk factors. This negative impact is most obvious in developing countries in Asia, where agricultural production is expected to decline by 4% to 10%, depending on the socio-economic background and climate change of different countries. Rising temperatures will reduce the fertility of arable land, with corn production expected to fall by about 6% to 23% and wheat production by 40% to 45% by 2050. The food supply comes mainly from the consumption of seeds of food crops, including wheat, rice, corn, soybeans, barley and sorghum, which are also most vulnerable to climate change. The growth rate of food production is lower than that of population, so food security is naturally challenged if the production of food crops is insufficient.

Another important impact of climate change is that rain-fed crops account for 60% of farmland. It is predicted that South Africa and sub-Saharan Africa will be severely affected by climate change. If we increase the use of high-yield and stress-resistant varieties and comprehensively increase the input of water and nutrients, crop yield can still be increased. Climate change will affect food security, mainly in four aspects: eatability, availability, supply stability and food utilization. Seeds will play an important role in food production, so high-yield and stress-resistant varieties should be provided at the right time and place. In addition, climate change will affect diseases and pests, such as leading to the occurrence of new pests, affecting the development of pests and diseases, and the status of new pest species in the ecology of the population as a whole.

The production of high-quality seeds is also affected by food crop-weed interactions, which can lead to the loss of pollination biodiversity and genetic diversity. Climate change will simultaneously change the phenology, reproduction, flowering, pollen vigor, pollination and fertilization, seed filling time, seed size, seed dormancy, seed yield and other factors of food crops. the end result is that seed growth is seriously affected. At the same time, seed production costs are likely to increase, as changing climate will have an impact on land and water resources management, herbicide and insecticide application, points collection management and seed management and scheduling. Seed-related intellectual property rights (IPR), including patent infringement, the prevalence of monoculture, acquisitions and mergers by multinational corporations, and biodiversity and pollination losses will be further complicated. It should also be noted that there is a lack of interdisciplinary cooperation between traditional crop breeding and domestication, crop physiologists and seed technology experts, agronomists and biologists. Furthermore, compared with conventional breeding with no yield advantage, obtaining high-yielding crops and seeds means increasing the cost of genetically engineered breeding and increasing the use of herbicides, that is, climate change will lead to a decline in net income from agricultural production in developed countries.