China's grain output is expected to increase again

In 2014, China's grain production is expected to have another bumper harvest and achieve 11 consecutive increases. Farmers' income is also expected to increase in a row. " On November 21, Zhang Hongyu, director of the Department of Economics and Management of the Ministry of Agriculture, said at the second Annual meeting of China's New Agricultural Industry and the National County Agricultural Economic Summit Forum.

Specifically, there will be a huge increase in summer grain in the second half of this year, and autumn grain is expected to have a bumper harvest again, and there should be no big suspense about another bumper harvest this year. The growth rate of farmers' income this year continues to be higher than that of urban residents, exceeding 2.8 percent in the first three quarters. Unsurprisingly, the income gap between urban and rural areas is likely to narrow to less than 1:3.

The import and export trade deficit of agricultural products may increase.

This does not obscure the challenges facing Chinese farmers. In the context of the new normal of domestic economic growth, that is, the decline of economic growth and foreign economic globalization, how to improve agricultural competitiveness, improve agricultural labor efficiency, output efficiency and resource allocation efficiency. Such as the increase in imports. On the basis of ten or even eleven consecutive increases in the total amount of grain, the import of agricultural products continues to increase.

China's agricultural imports and exports totaled US $186.69 billion in 2013, according to official figures from the Ministry of Agriculture. Of this total, exports were US $67.83 billion and imports were US $118.87 billion, with a trade deficit of US $51.04 billion. What is noteworthy is that all four figures show an increasing trend.

Specifically, from January to December, 14.585 million tons of grain, 4.5 million tons of cotton, 4.546 million tons of sugar and 63.375 million tons of soybeans were imported. The import of wheat in grain shows an increasing trend. The import of resource agricultural products has become a common trend.

Zhang Hongyu said: the trade deficit in agricultural products this year continues to maintain positive growth, which may exceed that of last year. So what is the reason for the import? First, the domestic demand for agricultural products is extremely strong; second, the prices of raw materials abroad, including agricultural products, are low. The cost of import is much lower than that of self-production.

Opportunities for Modern Agriculture

Although there are challenges, there are also opportunities. As China is a country with a large population and a fast-growing country, China faces two major opportunities in the production and trade of agricultural products. One is industrial opportunity, the other is policy opportunity.

As far as the former is concerned, compared with the past, the connotation and extension of modern agriculture have been greatly expanded. Horizontally, agriculture does not directly show the obvious industrial characteristics of product production, in addition to agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishing, there are sightseeing, leisure, ecological environment restoration, cultural inheritance and so on. From a vertical point of view, traditional agriculture is from planting to harvest, only a single link of production. But modern agriculture, prenatal data input, post-natal harvest, processing, circulation, trade, marketing and other links.

"from this point of view, the greatest feature of agriculture is that the seller's market is often the amount of production and satisfaction, which is determined by national resources and the capacity of the main body of production. This not only makes agriculture provide an opportunity for hundreds of millions of farmers to produce, but also attracts multiple agricultural operators. " Zhang Hongyu said.

As for the latter, the new government pays great attention to agriculture. Corresponding measures have been given in the training of new agricultural operators, agricultural subsidy policy, financial and insurance policy, agricultural land policy, agricultural supervision and other aspects, which greatly improve the enthusiasm of producers. It is not only farmers, but also the main body of new agricultural management.

The reorientation of Modern Agriculture

Since taking office, the new government has put forward the strategy of "simultaneous and coordinated development of the four modernizations". However, the competitiveness of modern agriculture does not match that of modern industry. This requires a reorientation of modern agriculture. In 2013, the Central Rural work Conference clearly defined the focus of food security to ensure basic self-sufficiency in grain and the absolute safety of food rations.

So to develop modern agriculture, there are two key points. First, deepen the reform of rural land system; second, cultivate diversified agricultural operators.

Over the years, the reform of the land system began to step into the deep water area. in order to develop modern agriculture, land circulation and moderate scale operation have become the rational choice of the Chinese government. On November 20, the Central Office and the State Council Office issued the opinions on guiding the orderly transfer of rural land management rights to develop appropriate scale operation of agriculture (hereinafter referred to as "opinions").

The "opinion" puts forward four basic principles: first, adhere to the collective ownership of rural land, stabilize farmers' right to contract, and activate the right of land management; second, encourage innovation and support the grass-roots level to try first; and third, take farmers as the main body. market allocation of resources, government support and guidance; fourth, adhere to the appropriate scale of operation.

This has become the program for the new government to promote land reform. On September 29, the "opinions" were deliberated at the fifth meeting of the Central Committee's deep reorganization, and after further revision and improvement in the light of the discussions at the meeting, they were submitted for approval and implementation in accordance with the procedures. Xi Jinping, head of the Central Committee's deep restructuring group, pointed out: in deepening the reform of the rural land system at this stage, we should consider not only agriculture but also farmers.

Zhang Hongyu said: it is necessary to clarify the significance of the theoretical innovation of the "separation of powers." After the formation of appropriate scale operation, it is helpful to improve the labor efficiency, especially the output efficiency of land. It not only solves the income problem of the main body of production, but also solves the problem of national food security and ensures the effective supply of agricultural products.

Industrial and commercial enterprises must symbiosis with the interests of farmers

As for the main body of agricultural management, the reason for the diversity is that it is pluralistic in terms of ownership, and the essential difference between modern agriculture and traditional agriculture also makes the main body of management present a pluralistic situation. And the special background, such as the stage of economic and social development in different regions of China, the differences of agricultural resources endowment in different regions, and so on.

With regard to the 260 million existing farmers in China, Zhang Hongyu said: this is a solid foundation for our agricultural production and effective supply of agricultural products, and their opportunities for survival and development should not be ignored at any time.

Of course, modern agriculture must do everything possible to improve the income of farmers. Otherwise, it will not be sustainable. Zhang Hongyu said that industrial and commercial enterprises must form a symbiotic relationship with farmers, whether it is prenatal, mid-production, or post-natal, whether they are researchers or new agricultural operators.

"if you buy and sell with one hammer, 'make a profit and leave, lose money and run away,' then this enterprise must not be big, strong, or long." Zhang Hongyu suggested that the second orientation of modern agriculture is to increase the income of farmers. This is also to make agricultural enterprises bigger and stronger.