Rapeseed imports increase rapeseed meal rebound variables

Rapeseed import increases rapeseed meal pressure

According to statistics, China's rapeseed imports into Hong Kong in October were 187000 tons, down 164 percent from 495000 tons last month, but an increase of 153.9 percent from 737000 tons in October last year. Port inventories are currently 352000 tons, an increase of 40 per cent month-on-month and 89 per cent year-on-year. Rapeseed oil imports into Hong Kong in October were 60700 tons, up 197.5 per cent from 20400 tons last month, but down 37 per cent from 83000 tons in October last year. At present, the port inventory is 132800 tons, an increase of 12.5% from the previous month.

As can be seen from the above data, the import volume of rapeseed this year has increased significantly compared with that of last year. Since October, the price difference between the domestic and imported rapeseed in Hong Kong has been 1300 won 1,500 yuan / ton, an increase of about 500 yuan / ton compared to 800,000 yuan / ton in the same period last year. Although the import of rapeseed oil has decreased, the rebound of rapeseed meal will face a certain degree of suppression due to the excessive domestic oil inventory and the market is expected to continue to increase in Hong Kong in the later period.

The demand for rapeseed meal is light in December.

According to relevant agency data, full-price feed production in October 2014 was 425500 tons, down 10.57 per cent from 475800 tons in September 2014 and 11.81 per cent from 482500 tons in October 2013. A large number of American beans have arrived in Hong Kong, which has brought tremendous pressure on the soybean meal market at the supply level. even under the light consumption of the oil market, it is difficult for soybean meal to have a bull market. At present, it is the winter storage period, and feed enterprises are mostly based on the principle of picking on demand. It is expected that the demand for rapeseed meal will continue to shrink under the influence of abundant supply of soybean meal from December to the end of the year, so it is difficult to boost the expected price.

Overall, if DDGS imports can not enter the country smoothly in the fourth quarter, there will be support at the bottom of rapeseed meal, even if it weakens with soybean meal, there is still support on the first line of 2000 yuan / ton, but on the whole, rapeseed meal will maintain an oscillatory trend, which can be more than 2200 yuan / ton for multi-empty watershed operation.