The risk of future fluctuation of corn prices in North China still exists.

Since mid-December, corn prices in North China have fluctuated frequently and have experienced a process of decline-rebound-decline as a whole. On the one hand, the weather has improved, the quantity of corn in North China has recovered rapidly, and the amount of corn delivered by enterprises has increased, but the downstream demand has failed to take on. The market pattern has changed from a phased tight supply to a situation where supply exceeds demand, and prices continue to fall reasonably in market expectations. On the other hand, the moisture content of grain sources is on the high side. Enterprises interested in low-moisture grain sources were forced to raise prices and led to their prices to stop falling and stabilizing. Coupled with the increase in the outflow of some grain sources, prices in some areas even rebounded slightly. Up to now, 14.5% of the corn deep processing enterprises in Weifang area of Shandong Province have imported 1880-1940 yuan / ton of third-class corn, which is about 20 yuan / ton lower than last weekend, and the price of individual enterprises has dropped slightly; the entering price of Shijiazhuang area in Hebei Province is about 1740 yuan / ton, which is about 20 yuan / ton lower than that of last weekend. It is expected that corn in North China will remain stable and weak in the short term, and there will be a greater decline in prices in areas where farmers are more active in selling grain.

Tests by relevant state institutions show that up to now, the progress of corn sales by farmers in Huanghuai region of North China is 35%, which is basically the same as that of the same period last year, of which the progress of corn sales by farmers in Hebei is 26%, an increase of 4% over last week and 3% slower than the same period last year. The progress of corn sales in Henan is 38%, an increase of 4% over last week and 1% faster than the same period last year. The progress of corn sales in Shandong was 40%, up 3% from last week and 1% faster than the same period last year. The acceleration of grain sales by farmers in Huanghuai region of North China is mainly due to the end of snowfall since the beginning of December, which is conducive to grain sales and logistics transportation. Different from the mentality of cherishing sales among farmers in Northeast China, it is understood that farmers in North China do not hesitate to sell. December and January are the periods of concentrated grain sales in North China. The weather forecast shows that in the coming week, except for a small amount of precipitation in the Huaihe River Basin, the weather conditions in most other areas in North China are good, which is conducive to the sale of grain by farmers.

At the same time, the progress of corn sales by farmers in Northeast China has been speeded up. So far, the progress of corn sales in Heilongjiang is 49%, an increase of 5% over last week and 10% faster than the same period last year. Jilin corn sale progress is 30%, an increase of 6% over last week, 1% faster than the same period last year The progress of corn sales in Liaoning was 38%, up 7% from last week, 8% slower than the same period last year, while the progress of corn sales in Inner Mongolia was 29%, 6% higher than last week and 7% slower than the same period last year. In the coming week, the range of snow in Northeast China will be further reduced compared with this week, and it will be mainly concentrated in the northwest and eastern parts of Heilongjiang. The weather in most parts of Northeast China is suitable, which is favorable for farmers to sell grain.

Traders in Hebei region reported that it is difficult to acquire at present, because the moisture content of corn is still high, and the purchase volume is very small by purchasing corn with a moisture standard of 15.5%. As there is not much drying equipment in Hebei, it is difficult for traders to buy a large number of them. It is understood that the rate of decline in corn moisture in Hebei this year is too slow, and a large number of corn moisture can be purchased in the same period in previous years, mainly because there is more precipitation in Hebei in November and sustained haze, which is not conducive to the decline of corn moisture, and the weather in Hebei in late December is OK, which is conducive to the decline of corn moisture. According to monitoring, up to now, starch prices have dropped significantly, with starch prices in North China falling to 2300-2350 yuan / ton, down 50-100 yuan / ton compared with last week, and starch prices in Northeast China to 2300-2350 yuan / ton, down about 50 yuan / ton compared with last week. The decline in starch prices is mainly due to the high operating rate of starch factories in the past month, the larger starch output, the slower growth rate of demand than output, and the increase in starch inventory of starch processing enterprises. some starch enterprises have to reduce prices to sell starch. It is estimated that after the decline in starch prices, the processing profits of starch factories in some areas have become negative, even below the stop-production line. It is expected that some enterprises with larger starch stocks and smaller enterprises will reduce the operating rate and limit production.

In the next one and a half months, corn prices in North China will be caught in a game between supply and demand. On the supply side, the next one and a half months will be the peak of grain sales for farmers in North China, and corn supply will increase significantly. At present, the moisture content of corn in North China is still on the high side, especially in Hebei, which has affected the use of local grain enterprises. however, since the beginning of December, the weather conditions in North China have been conducive to the reduction of corn moisture and the sale of grain by farmers. there is a large potential supply in the North China corn market before the Spring Festival. From the demand point of view, in the next one and a half months, grain enterprises in North China will establish higher corn stocks to cope with the reduction of grain sources during the Spring Festival and the first month. At present, corn stocks in grain enterprises in North China are not high. Most enterprises have corn stocks of about 10 days of processing consumption, and corn stocks need to be increased to more than 30 days of processing consumption before the end of January. It is expected that there will be a large potential demand in the North China corn market before the Spring Festival.

At present, farmers in North China do not have an obvious psychology of cherishing sales, and the progress of grain sales will gradually speed up, and the main factors affecting the short-term supply and demand situation of corn will depend on the mentality of grain enterprises to build inventory. The analysis shows that in the short term, grain enterprises in North China will not greatly increase corn stocks, and corn prices in North China will still fluctuate slightly, depending on the progress of grain sales by farmers, corn prices in some areas will go down. however, grain enterprises will no longer wait for market price changes and policy rumors in January, and will have to increase the establishment of corn inventories, when corn prices in North China will stabilize or strengthen.