world grain output to hit record high this year

Economic Daily, Geneva (Reporter Chen Jian) the crop Prospect and Food situation report recently released by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations shows that due to good agricultural production conditions in Europe and record corn production in the United States, total world grain production (including rice) in 2014 is expected to increase by 0.3% over 2013, reaching 2.532 billion tons, a record high.

According to the latest report, grain production in the European Union in 2014 is expected to increase by 5.6 per cent compared with 2013, while US corn production is also expected to reach a record despite the reduction in acreage. As a result, the record harvest of world grain in 2014 will exceed the forecast for global grain consumption from 2014 to 2015, raising inventories to the highest level since 2000, and the ratio of world grain stocks to consumption has also increased to 25.2 per cent, the highest level in 13 years.

However, the report also warned that due to civil strife, bad weather and Ebola epidemic, the food security situation will deteriorate in more than 30 countries, mainly in the Middle East and Africa. The Ebola epidemic has had an extremely severe impact on the agriculture and food sectors in West Africa, particularly in Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone, as the epidemic began to spread at a time when crops were being sown and continued throughout the production cycle.

Regional conflicts have also seriously affected food security, the report said. The internal conflict in Syria has hindered grain production, making the food security situation very urgent. In Syria, about 6.8 million people, including refugees who have fled to neighboring countries, are facing severe food shortages. Syria's food production decreased significantly in 2014 due to abandoned land, scarcity of labour, destruction of power stations and canals and dry weather conditions. The situation in Iraq is also very serious, with the number of people displaced by internal conflicts doubling to 2.8 million.

In the Central African Republic, 1/3 people are in need of emergency food aid. It is estimated that although the country's food production this year has increased from 2013, it is 58% lower than the average. The report notes that since the beginning of October, 1/4 of households in countries with escalating violence have adopted negative response strategies, including the sale of productive assets and the slaughtering of livestock. Agricultural prices in the Central African Republic have soared by 70% this year.

The report says refugees from the Darfur region of Sudan, northern Nigeria, the Central African Republic and Mali put tremendous pressure on food supplies. In Chad, over 550000 people are in need of food aid. While the situation has been alleviated by recent food harvests and humanitarian assistance, more than 6 million people are in need of help in South Sudan, the Sudan and Somalia. Food prices in these countries remain high, with sorghum prices in the areas most affected by the conflict four times higher than in other regions.

The report also points out that the drought has reduced food production in Central America. Dry weather in the region earlier this year reduced corn production by about 9 per cent, leaving 400000 households in Honduras, El Salvador and Guatemala in need of food aid.