The price inversion of agricultural products at home and abroad will become normal within a certain period of time

Market-oriented drive to increase income, improve quality and increase efficiency of stable grain

In 2014, the supply of agricultural products in China was generally sufficient, grain prices rose slightly under the effective regulation and control of the state, cotton, oil and sugar continued to decline, and fresh agricultural products fluctuated seasonally. Under the background of the continuous decline in the international prices of agricultural products, the domestic and foreign prices of agricultural products are upside down, and imports continue to maintain a high level. It is expected that international agricultural prices will continue to operate at a low level for a period of time in the future, and the import price "ceiling" will increasingly squeeze the reasonable rising space of domestic agricultural product prices. at the same time, the rigid rise of the "floor" of China's agricultural production costs will increasingly squeeze farmers' space for growing grain and increasing income. How to proceed from the market demand, improve the competitiveness of China's agricultural products, actively deal with the double extrusion of "ceiling" and "floor", and realize the ways of stabilizing grain income, adjusting structure, improving quality and increasing efficiency, it has become an important strategic option for China's agricultural development under the new normal of economic development.

The upside down prices of agricultural products at home and abroad will become normal for a certain period of time.

In recent years, the domestic market price (wholesale price or arrival price) of major agricultural products such as grain, cotton, oil, sugar and meat in China has been completely higher than the CIF price of foreign products within the quota, and some products were once higher than the CIF price of imports outside the quota. The specific manifestations are as follows:

The price difference of some varieties (the difference between the market price of domestic agricultural products and the import-to-shore tax price of foreign products within the quota) has gradually widened. In November 2014, the price differences of rice, wheat and corn were as high as 1.08 yuan per kilogram, 0.58 yuan and 0.52 yuan per kilogram, respectively, all larger than in 2013. Considering the international and domestic supply and demand situation and other factors, it is expected that the after-tax price of imports outside the quota may break through after 6-8 years.

The prices of some varieties turned upside down from volatility to persistence. Around the 1990s, domestic grain prices were formed under the "two-track" system, and some varieties were higher than the international market prices. Since the beginning of this century, the price gap between domestic and foreign grain has narrowed. With the full liberalization of China's grain market in 2004, especially the end of the transition period of China's accession to the WTO in 2006, grain prices at home and abroad began to hang upside down, from some varieties upside down to overall upside down. Since the new century, the domestic and foreign prices of pork, wheat, sugar and cotton have begun to hang upside down one after another. in July 2013, the domestic prices of rice and corn continued to be higher than the import after-tax prices within quotas. In 2014, major agricultural products, such as grain, cotton, oil, sugar and meat, showed an overall upside-down trend. It is expected that next year, the output of most of the world's agricultural products will remain high, the market supply will be adequate, coupled with the slow global economic recovery, the prices of energy and other major products are low, and the growth of agricultural food demand and industrial demand will be relatively slow. prices will be low in the short term, the price of agricultural products at home and abroad will continue to hang upside down, and the price gap may even widen.

The root cause of price upside down is the weak market competitiveness of agricultural products caused by the shortage of agricultural resources, low labor productivity and rigid rise in production costs, and the direct reason is the lack of agricultural support and protection measures such as tariffs and subsidies. Due to resource constraints, the average operating scale of farmers in China is only equivalent to that of South Korea and Japan, EU and USA. According to the estimates of the World Bank, the per capita agricultural added value of China's agricultural labor force in 2013 is only 64% of the world average. China's agriculture has entered a high-cost era. From 2006 to 2013, the average annual growth rates of production costs of rice, wheat, corn, cotton and soybean were 11.0%, 11.6%, 11.6%, 13.1% and 12.0%, respectively. At the same time, the average tariff on the import of agricultural products in China is only 15.2%, which is 1% of the world average. Moreover, the special trade safeguard mechanism has been abandoned, and there is still a big gap between domestic agricultural subsidies and developed countries. In addition, in recent years, the continuous decline in international shipping costs and the continuous appreciation of the RMB have contributed to the widening of the price gap at home and abroad.

We should think about the bottom line when the price is upside down, and firmly stick to the three bottom lines.

The price upside down will have a profound impact on the overall situation of China's agricultural development. On the one hand, "moderate import" helps to alleviate the increasingly tight pressure on agricultural resources and environment. But on the other hand, the price upside down stimulates the import, forms the "ceiling" to the reasonable rise of the price of domestic agricultural products, and the domestic agricultural production cost "floor" continues to rise rigidly, which forms a double squeeze on the increase of farmers' grain income. Under the current conditions, the negative impact is more prominent. Therefore, it is urgent to make comprehensive use of quota management, trade relief, control of the use of imported products, inspection and quarantine, and "green box" subsidies to prevent the negative impact of price inversion from further expanding, and to maintain the three bottom lines of farmers' income, food rations production capacity, and the supply of important agricultural products.

From the perspective of getting to the root of the problem, we should speed up the realization of agricultural modernization with Chinese characteristics in accordance with the spirit of the 18th CPC National Congress, the third Plenary session of the 18th CPC Central Committee, this year's Central Economic work Conference, and the Central Rural work Conference, and take reform and innovation as the driving force. Specifically, it is necessary to take the market demand as the orientation to drive the increase of stable grain income and the improvement of quality and efficiency, and effectively improve the competitiveness of China's agricultural products.

First, adjust the agricultural structure under the guidance of market demand. It is necessary to aim at the great demand for the improvement of residents' consumption level and the upgrading of consumption structure under the background of urbanization, and according to the changes in market supply and demand and regional comparative advantages, promote the agricultural structure to be in short supply of products in the market, to high-quality and characteristic products, and to the integration of planting, cultivation, production and marketing, develop urban modern agriculture, and expand the versatility and value-added space of agriculture. In particular, it is necessary to take the brand as the lead to promote the transformation of the development mode of the processing industry, promote the transformation of the agricultural products processing industry from scale and quantity expansion to quality improvement and structure optimization, and establish a benefit sharing mechanism between agricultural products processing enterprises and farmers.

The second is to improve the price formation mechanism of agricultural products with the goal of stabilizing grain income. We will give full play to the positive role of the current policy on price support for agricultural products, and adhere to and improve the policy on the minimum purchase price of rice and wheat and the policy on temporary purchase and storage of important agricultural products. We will actively and steadily promote the pilot project of subsidizing target prices for soybeans and cotton, and sum up the experience of price reform. We will explore market-oriented methods such as insurance and loans, and comprehensively build a "safety net" for farmers' income risk prevention. We will speed up the construction of a market regulation system that meets the requirements of the new situation, and prevent price fluctuations by strengthening the regulation of domestic reserves and encouraging the participation of multiple subjects. We will strengthen the monitoring, early warning and release of information, carry out agricultural outlook activities, and play a consumption-oriented role.

Third, take the e-commerce of agricultural products as the platform to improve the circulation efficiency of agricultural products. We will speed up the demonstration of e-commerce for agricultural products, build a national e-commerce support system for agricultural products with the national wholesale market as the leader and the Tian Tou market as the node, and integrate logistics, information flow and capital flow. We will promote all kinds of business entities to cooperate with large-scale e-commerce platforms, and jointly explore a variety of marketing models such as the classification and classification of brand agricultural products, "Tian Tou market + e-commerce enterprises + urban terminal distribution" and so on. Speed up the construction of village-level information service stations (staff) and innovate the circulation mode of agricultural products.

The fourth is to improve the efficiency and efficiency of agricultural production and management by cultivating a new type of business body. We will stabilize and improve rural land contracting relations, speed up the development of appropriate scale operation, speed up the cultivation of new professional farmers, improve the agricultural socialized service system, continuously strengthen the construction of infrastructure such as irrigation and water conservancy, and popularize cost-saving and efficiency-increasing technology. improve the level of agricultural mechanization.