The policy of temporary collection and storage of cotton has been cancelled. What is the course for cotton farmers and enterprises?

Cotton prices have fallen to their lowest level in recent years

From the perspective of spatial distribution, China's cotton is divided into Xinjiang cotton area and inland cotton area, among which the inland cotton area is dominated by Huanghuai basin and middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River.

Known as "land of fish and rice" title of Dongting Lake Plain, across Hunan and Hubei provinces, is an important commodity cotton base in China. At the time of the local cotton acquisition season, this reporter did not see too much harvest joy. Hunan Li County Lidong Village cotton farmer Wang Huanjin a sad face, He pointed to the sparse cotton field told reporters: "Normal years cotton yield per mu has about 600 jin, This year at most also 320 jin."

Wang Huanjin is not the only one who is like this. Hunan, Hubei, Jiangsu, Shandong, Jiangxi and other major cotton producing areas all reflect that cotton yield decreased significantly in 2014. The supply and marketing cooperatives of Anxiang County, the second largest cotton planting county in Hunan Province, have conducted investigations, and the local cotton yield in 2014 decreased by about 40% compared with the normal year.

Misfortunes never come singly. Cotton prices have fallen to their lowest point in recent years while yields per mu have fallen to their lowest point in recent years. The reporter learned from interviews in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River that the purchase price of cotton dealers into the village is 2.6 yuan to 2.9 yuan per catty of seed cotton, the lowest price in the past six years. In the last three years, this price has averaged 3.8 yuan per catty.

Li Wenlin, a cotton farmer in Dongting Lake Plain, calculated an account. The cost of seeds, chemical fertilizers, pesticides, basement membrane, land circulation and hired workers to pick up cotton per mu was 685 yuan. He invested at least 3 jobs per mu of land, calculated at 100 yuan per working day, and invested 300 yuan. "Calculated, one mu of cotton costs 985 yuan, according to the current price, the income per mu is only 945 yuan, which means that I have worked for a year, but also pay back money!" Li Wenlin said.

Prices fell to the lowest point in nearly 6 years, cotton farmers generally have reluctance to sell psychology. In Hunan Huaxiang cotton industry small ferry branch, In previous years this time, Reporters can always see from the company gate to the warehouse, Line up thousands of meters long line, Warehouse front half football field big square, Traffic crowded, People noisy. This reporter went to see that there was no one in the huge venue.

Pang Haiqing, business manager of Xiaodukou Branch, told reporters: "People think the price is too low and are unwilling to sell cotton." Since their company started weighing cotton last year, they have collected a total of 300,000 tons. In the same period of previous years, they have purchased at least 6 million tons.

"New Deal" Pain

Our reporter investigation found that in previous years once cotton farmers reluctant to sell, processing enterprises will not sit still, will take the initiative to buy. Strangely, cotton farmers are unwilling to sell at the same time, enterprises are unwilling to accept, there has been a deadlock in the acquisition.

Hubei Songzi Yinfeng cotton industry director Wang Jialong said, The whole Songzi City 6 large-scale cotton processing enterprises, 4 not long ago opened the scale acquisition, But not much. "They're all symbolic acquisitions. The acquisition volume is only 5% of the same period in previous years."

Why do these processing enterprises prefer empty warehouses, idle machines and workers to rest rather than buy cotton for processing?

Wang Jialong calculated a detailed account: the price sent by cotton dealers to the processing plant is between 3.05 yuan and 3.15 yuan. According to the standard conversion of 38% of the clothing percentage (i.e. 38 catties of lint cotton rolled out of 100 catties of seed cotton) and 1 yuan per catty of cottonseed price, the purchase cost of one ton of lint cotton is about 13,300 yuan, the processing cost, marketing office expenses, loan financial expenses are about 1200 yuan, and the cost of one ton of lint cotton is about 14,500 yuan. "According to the current market price, a ton of lint is sold for 14,000 yuan, which means that for every ton of lint I process, I will lose 500 yuan. Who will still do this kind of business? Why don't you take a break?" Wang Jialong said.

The reason why there is a "farmers do not want to sell, enterprises do not want to accept" acquisition deadlock is because after the temporary cotton storage policy is cancelled, the price of new cotton is completely determined by the market, and the domestic cotton price should be basically in line with the international cotton price. At present, although domestic cotton prices have declined over the past few years, they are still at a high price compared with international cotton prices. China's cotton spinning enterprises are export-oriented manufacturing enterprises, to "go out" to participate in international market competition, according to the current price, certainly dare not buy a large number of domestic cotton. The processing enterprises in the upper reaches of cotton spinning enterprises naturally dare not open up their purchases.

Industry analysts believe that acquisition and processing enterprises wait and see carefully, cotton farmers wait and see reluctant to sell, textile enterprises reduce inventory, until the end of the year, farmers have to sell a large number of cotton, it is likely to appear "cotton market chaos", cotton farmers income more into doubt. At present, this may be an unavoidable "pain" in policy adjustment.

Cheng Guoqiang, a researcher at the Development Research Center of the State Council, believes that in the past three years, China has implemented temporary cotton collection and storage, stabilizing the cotton market, but it has also continued to encounter the embarrassment of declining cotton quality and expanding losses in the cotton spinning industry. In order to get rid of this embarrassment, China implemented the cotton "New Deal", hoping to promote the transformation and upgrading of the long-term depressed cotton industry, improve the quality of domestic cotton, reduce the price difference between domestic and foreign cotton, and increase the international competitiveness of domestic textile enterprises.

Transformation has become an inevitable policy that needs to keep up

It has become inevitable for China's cotton industry to accelerate its transformation. However, compared with Xinjiang cotton area where cotton target price reform has been carried out, 9 major cotton provinces in the interior have not carried out this reform. At present, they only enjoy a quota subsidy of 2000 yuan per ton of lint, so the road of transformation will undoubtedly be more difficult.

According to the China Cotton Association survey, it is estimated that in 2014 the national cotton planting area of 63.4 million mu, down 9.4% from the previous year. Among them, the cotton areas in the Yangtze River Basin and Huanghuai Basin have been affected by the increase of production cost, the decrease of comparative benefit of cotton planting and the cancellation of temporary collection and storage policy, and the area has decreased more.

Li Guoxiang, a researcher from the Institute of Rural Development of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, told reporters that Xinjiang cotton area is easier to realize mechanization, the cost is relatively low, the inland cotton area is mostly smallholder planting mode, the cost is high, the benefit is low, with the cotton price gradually returning to the market, the competitiveness of the inland cotton area decreases, some smallholder growers with high cost and low benefit, processing enterprises will withdraw from the production and processing field.

Reporter survey found that the current downturn in cotton prices dampened the enthusiasm of cotton farmers, many cotton farmers said that if the late cotton prices did not pick up, 2015 will consider reducing cotton planting area, or even no longer planting cotton. Reporter comprehensive multi-data analysis, according to the current market trend, cotton prices are difficult to pick up, the willingness of mainland cotton farmers to plant in 2015 will undoubtedly decline more significantly, the domestic cotton planting pattern will therefore face a major adjustment.

However, the road to adjustment is not easy, and some cotton farmers who try to transform lose more. In Huarong County, the largest cotton producing county in Hunan Province, many cotton farmers changed to plant pumpkin this year. As a result, the pumpkin was seriously unsalable in harvest season, and a large number of pumpkins rotted in the fields, leaving farmers without any return. In Gong 'an County, cotton farmer Yang Jun reported that the local water shortage, dilapidated water conservancy facilities, irrigation difficulties, in the past cotton planting did not need frequent watering, but also can cope with, last year changed to rice and vegetables, encountered serious water shortage problems.

He Yuegang, vice president of Hunan Province Cotton Association, said that in 2014, only some cotton farmers changed to other crops, and there were so many problems. In view of the current "difficulty in selling cotton," more cotton farmers will definitely change to other crops in 2015. When this year's problems occur again, the negative impact will be even greater. A number of grass-roots cadres told reporters that the policy of collection and storage was cancelled, cotton farmers encountered a lot of difficulties, but did not know how to help. "Recently, when I went down to the village, I was most afraid of cotton farmers asking: What should I plant next year?"

Dang Guoying, a researcher at the Institute of Rural Development of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, suggested that we should integrate the strength of various departments to provide supporting services for the transformation of cotton farmers, such as strengthening the construction of water conservancy facilities and tractor roads, so as to provide infrastructure conditions for cotton farmers to plant other crops. Market guidance and technical training should also be provided to cotton farmers to prevent them from "swarming" to plant certain crops, resulting in oversupply and ultimately low prices harming farmers.