Livestock and poultry breeding boom in 2015

As of December 31, 2014, the CSI 300 index rose 52% in 2014, while the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishing (Shenwan) primary industry index rose 16% over the same period, far outperforming the market. This is related to the overall national macroeconomic environment, the weak characteristics of the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishing industry, the high production capacity and inventory of agricultural products, the slow growth of agricultural listing performance, the price cycle of agricultural products and the expected performance of the national agricultural support policy.

Since the beginning of 2014, only the feed (Shenwan) secondary industry index of the eight secondary industry indexes has fallen 1.26%, while other sub-sectors have risen to varying degrees. The forestry (Shenwan) secondary industry index has risen 52.55%, which is basically the same as the market index. Agricultural products processing (Shenwan) secondary industry index followed, up 29.78%, fishery (Shenwan) secondary industry index rose 7.28%, the smallest increase.

The agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishing industry is most closely related to people's daily life, and the changes of its output and price will have a great impact on people's production activities. The production of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishing industry has a strong periodicity, and is subject to the limitation of resources and the relevant policies of the country.

For next year's industry, the major securities firms have recently expressed their own views, generally optimistic about land transfer and collection and storage policy changes, as well as breeding and seed industry inflection point is expected to come.

According to the Societe Generale Securities Research report, the aquaculture sector was the main investment line for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishing industry in 2015, and although the pig cycle has been lengthened in terms of time, it is currently in the rising channel of the pig cycle. In addition, pig prices have seen a sizeable rise by the end of 2014 and the boom is expected to continue into the fourth quarter of 2015, making a full-year profit. Individual stocks recommend Muyuan shares and Shengnong Development.

The opportunity of the overall feed industry and vaccine is relatively general, if there is a market, its time will be relatively late. Because the total amount of the whole industry does not come back obviously, only when the volume begins to pick up, the plate will have a chance.

The 2015 industry strategy report of COSCO Securities believes that the inflection point of aquaculture and seed industry is expected to come, in-depth reform to promote the substantive development of agricultural modernization, open up a new space for the development of the industry, cyclical inflection points and policy dividends jointly enhance the valuation of the agricultural sector.

The Great Wall Securities Research report pointed out that the main line in 2015 is the upward boom in livestock farming + the acceleration of the release of dividends from reforms such as land reform, focusing on periodic varieties with greater certainty and stocks that benefit from policy dividends.