The temperament of hybrid rice industry has rebounded and the rhythm of renewal of dominant varieties has been accelerated.

In 2014, the area of hybrid rice seed production in China was 1.4 million mu, a decrease of about 230000 mu over the previous year, a decrease of 14.11% over the same period last year. The country's new seed production was about 230 million kg, a decrease of 42 million kg over last year and 15.55% over the same period last year. The total supply of hybrid rice seeds in 2015 was 355 million kg, and the total seed demand for field seeds and exports in 2015 is expected to be about 245 million kg. It is expected that the inventory level at the end of the period will drop to about 110 million kg, and the market pressure will be alleviated next year. From the historical law, it takes at least 2 to 3 years for the hybrid rice market to digest 110 million kg inventory, which shows that the surplus of rice seeds is normal; from the structural point of view, the seed surplus of three-line hybrid rice is serious, and the seed supply and demand of two-line hybrid rice is basically balanced. Considering extreme weather disasters, it is expected that the seed supply of two-line rice lines may also be tight.

The seed production area and seed production quantity of hybrid rice in China have decreased significantly for two consecutive years. With the huge decline in seed production area and seed production quantity, the inventory of hybrid rice seed industry lags behind the change of seed production area by about two years, and is expected to drop to a reasonable inventory level of 50 million kg in 2017. At that time, it will reach the peak of the industry boom.

The proportion of hybrid rice is expected to continue to increase.

China is the largest producer and consumer of hybrid rice in the world. The annual planting area of hybrid rice seeds is about 250 million mu, accounting for about 55% of the total rice seeds, and conventional seeds account for about 45%. The author believes that this proportion is expected to continue to increase in the future, mainly based on: 1. The development of breeding technology promotes the continuous improvement of hybrid rice quality. For example, the rice quality of two-line hybrid rice is significantly higher than that of three-line hybrid rice, which weakens the advantage of conventional rice quality and increases the share of hybrid rice. There is still much room for improvement in the popularization rate of hybrid japonica rice in the future. At present, the planting area of japonica rice in China is about 7 million hectares, accounting for about 27% of the rice planting area, but the cultivation of japonica rice is still dominated by conventional varieties, and the proportion of hybrid japonica rice is only 3%. With reference to the 72% popularization rate of indica hybrid rice, the popularization rate of hybrid japonica rice still has great room for improvement in the future.

The rice region of China can be divided into six rice cropping areas. Including all or most of the eight provinces (cities) of Jiangsu, Shanghai, Anhui, Jiangxi, Hunan, Jiajiang and Sichuan, and the eastern and central China rice areas in the south of Shaanxi and Henan provinces, accounting for 68% of the national rice area. 16 rice farming areas. It includes the southern parts of Fujian, Guangdong, Guangxi and Yunnan, as well as all the South China double cropping rice areas in Taiwan, Hainan and South China Sea islands, accounting for 18% of the country's rice planting area.

The total market size of hybrid rice in China is only 5 billion yuan from 2004, and is expected to exceed 20 billion yuan in 2015, with an annual compound growth rate of 14.6%, indicating the rapid development level of this field and the economic attribute of the sunrise industry. With the intensification and frequency of mergers and acquisitions of rice seed enterprises and the acceleration of the internationalization of hybrid rice in China, the next five to ten years will be a good opportunity for the development of China's hybrid rice seed industry. It is estimated that the market scale of China's rice seed industry will reach 35 billion yuan by 2020.

The pace of renewal of dominant varieties is accelerated.

For the current situation and characteristics of the rice seed industry, merger and reorganization is the only way for the development of rice seed enterprises in a certain stage. It mainly comes from: 1. Chinese rice varieties can be divided into japonica rice and indica rice, as well as early, middle and late rice, forming multi-level characteristics of rich differences, so it is not possible for a single variety to dominate the world, and rice varieties are highly complementary. The most fundamental reason is to achieve the complementarity of different varieties through epitaxial development, which is conducive to the long-term development of enterprises. High barriers to variety research and development, long cultivation cycle, merger and reorganization is the most effective way for leading enterprises with financial strength to quickly obtain excellent variety rights. 3. Combine strong and strong, integrate R & D advantages, and seize market share. Large-scale high-quality rice seed enterprises will be the protagonist and leader of this merger and reorganization drama.

At present, there are more and more hybrid rice varieties in the Chinese market, the renewal rhythm is accelerated, and the product homogenization is becoming more and more serious, which is embodied in: 1. In recent years, the number of varieties with an extension area of more than 100000 mu has been increasing, while the extension area of a single variety has been decreasing, so it is difficult to replicate the brilliance of Shanyou 63 with a maximum extension area of more than 102 million mu in a single year (1990). Compared with the top 10 list of newly promoted areas of maize varieties, only "Liangpeijiuyou" and "Gangyou 725" have been among the top 10 extension areas for more than 5 years. The products with outstanding characteristics such as high yield, lodging resistance and good taste are more favored by growers. Varieties without core competitive advantage and facing high inventory pressure can only rely on price war to maintain operation, and the life cycle is further shortened, so that dominant varieties can also take advantage of the opportunity to expand market share.

Chinese hybrid rice has global advantages.

Chinese hybrid rice has significant advantages in germplasm resources and breeding techniques and will have a bright future in the broader international seed industry market. On the one hand, the overseas rice market has a broader space. The global rice acreage is close to 2.25 billion mu (China accounts for only 20.3%), and the commercialization rate is not high. On the other hand, Chinese hybrid rice has global advantages. At present, China's hybrid rice technology has been ahead of the world for at least five years, and the relevant export policies have been gradually relaxed (the possibility of allowing overseas breeding of two-line parents in the later stage of the country can not be ruled out). The next 5-10 years will be the best strategic opportunity for China's hybrid rice technology to go out.

Global rice cultivation provides a huge market capacity for the international expansion of Chinese seed enterprises. At present, 90% of the global rice planting area is distributed in Asian countries, of which Southeast Asia accounts for nearly 70% of the global rice planting area, with a commercialization rate of only 15%, making it the preferred place for the international layout of Chinese rice enterprises. Some authoritative organizations predict that in the next 10 to 15 years, the planting area of hybrid rice in the world will reach more than 100 million hectares, which will require about 15 to 2 million tons of hybrid rice seeds every year, with a market space of about 12 to 16 billion US dollars.

Chinese hybrid rice has significant advantages in germplasm resources and breeding techniques and is expected to be popularized on a large scale in the global market. According to the statistics of the United States Department of Agriculture, the per unit yield of rice in China has reached 440 kg / mu, much higher than the global average. By 2014, Chinese hybrid rice seeds had been introduced into more than 20 countries and regions in the world. According to the data of the Agricultural intellectual property Research Center, China's hybrid rice seed export volume reached 84000 tons in 2014, with an average annual compound growth rate of 23% from 1999 to 2014. At present, the annual extension area of Chinese hybrid rice is more than 78 million mu in India, Vietnam, the Philippines, the United States and other countries.

In the future, there will be major adjustments in the "seed Law" and the "measures for the examination and approval of Major crop varieties", and the threshold for applying for new varieties will be raised, which will help leading enterprises in the seed industry to give full play to their technological advantages. At the same time, the central government is formulating measures to speed up the reform of the scientific research system of the seed industry, promote the flow of talents and funds to leading enterprises, and help domestic seed industry leaders to enhance their own R & D strength and participate in international seed industry competition.