Get out of the current predicament of national food security

The Central Rural work Conference held by ■ at the end of 2014 continued to emphasize the need to ensure national food security as a top priority and to ensure basic self-sufficiency in grain and absolute safety of food rations.

The Central Rural work Conference held at the end of 2014 continued to emphasize the need to ensure national food security as a top priority and to ensure basic self-sufficiency in grain and absolute safety of food rations. Does this mean that the supply and demand of grain in our country is tight at present? Does it mean that the rice and wheat used to feed the people are not enough? Does it mean that there is too little corn mainly used to feed livestock?

The current emphasis on national food security is not due to the shortage of domestic supply.

Although there is some controversy on the judgment of the relationship between grain supply and demand and the guarantee of national food security, it is considered that the basis of grain shortage in our country is insufficient.

In fact, China's current grain market supply is not less, but too much. China's grain production has increased for many years in a row, and achieved 11 consecutive increases in 2014. the total grain output has exceeded the level of 600 million tons for two consecutive years and 550 million tons for five consecutive years. In China, the amount of raw grain used to meet the food consumption of residents is only about 500 million tons per year. It can be seen that, on the whole, China's grain output is more than sufficient to meet the food consumption of residents. What's more, China has imported more than 80 million tons of grain in recent years.

Due to the extremely abundant grain supply, the domestic grain market has a pattern of strong rice and weak wheat, the sale of finished grain is difficult, the market price is low, and the domestic grain market is impacted by the international market. Although the current level of domestic grain inventory is still not a public information and can not be used as an important basis for judging the current food security situation in China, however, from the grain storage capacity construction and emphasis on grain storage work specially studied at the executive meeting held by the State Council in June 2014, it can be judged that China's grain inventory level is high, and the existing storage capacity is seriously insufficient. Some of the grain produced by farmers is no longer available in warehouses, which shows that the national food security is good.

Some people may say, since there is no shortage of grain in our country, why is the scale of grain imports still expanding year by year? Indeed, China's annual grain imports will soon exceed 100 million tons. Does this mean that the situation of food security in China is not good? Objectively speaking, the fundamental reason for the continuous expansion of China's grain import scale lies in the lack of comparative advantage and competitiveness of China's grain production. If the purchase price of grain in China is in line with the international market, when the price in the international grain market falls to a certain extent, Chinese farmers will lose money in grain production, while farmers in large grain-exporting countries may still make a profit in grain production. If we allow the impact of the international grain market, Chinese farmers will lose their enthusiasm for grain production and give up grain production. However, under the new situation, moderate grain import is also a way to ensure national food security. Restricted by resource conditions, taking into account consumers' personal preferences and making full use of both international and domestic markets, China imports a small amount of staple grains such as rice, wheat and corn, and imports a certain amount of soybeans and other edible agricultural products. not only does not harm the national food security, but also helps to improve the national food security situation.

At present, the emphasis on national food security is mainly based on the consideration of risk prevention.

In a certain period of time, the national food security mainly depends on the domestic grain production capacity, inventory level and import capacity. At present, China's grain production capacity is significantly higher than the grain consumption needs of residents, and the surplus grain needs to be digested by deep processing; the inventory level of staple grains such as rice, wheat and corn saved every year is constantly reaching record highs; the international grain market is in excess supply while China's foreign exchange reserves are abundant, and the international grain market price is obviously lower than the domestic grain import pressure. Such being the case, why does the country still regard ensuring national food security as the top priority of agricultural and rural work in 2015?

Reviewing the changes of China's food security situation since the reform, it is not difficult to find that it is easy to relax whenever there is a relatively large food supply in our country. Difficulties in selling grain were common throughout the country in the mid-1980s and late 1990s, and farmers were not allowed to constantly reduce grain production. As a result, grain production hovered and decreased one after another, grain market supply was tight, and there was even "grain grabbing" in some areas. People call this situation the food cycle. Every time the food situation is good, it often "gives birth" to the consequences of food shortage. Eliminating the adverse effects of the food cycle requires us to always attach importance to food work.

At present, the actual grain supply capacity of our country can basically resist any risk, including the disaster risk and market risk of domestic grain production and the risk of drastic fluctuations in the international market. However, this does not mean that China's food supply can permanently combat a variety of cumulative risks.

In recent years, although there have been relatively serious natural disasters in some areas of our country, the overall natural disasters are relatively mild. In addition to "good policy" and "human efforts", "heaven's help" is also indispensable to the continuous increase of grain production in our country. China's grain production still depends on heaven for a living. The impact of natural disasters on food production is uncertain. For the same grain acreage, the grain yield is relatively high when the disaster is light, but relatively low when the disaster is serious. We can't count too much on God's help year after year.

The risk of the impact of the long-term downturn of international grain market prices on domestic food security can not be ignored. Since the middle and late 1970s, the price of the world grain market has experienced a downturn of about 30 years. Some countries with insufficient agricultural competitiveness think that the loss of domestic grain production outweighs the gain, so they allow the domestic grain production capacity to be weakened. In 2008, the price of international grain market suddenly skyrocketed, many countries banned grain exports, and there was a food shortage in many countries around the world.

In recent years, sharp price fluctuations have become the basic feature of the operation of the international grain market. According to the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization, the price of corn exports from the United States reached 324 US dollars per ton in November 2012, but fell to 164 yuan per ton in September 2014, a drop of nearly 50 per cent. On the other hand, the price of corn in China is relatively stable under the action of the market purchase policy. At present, grain prices are in the doldrums in the international market, and grain-exporting countries want to expand China's market through a variety of means. The impact on national food security should not be underestimated. Grain consumption is generally inflexible. When the scale of grain import is too large, domestic grain production is bound to shrink. Therefore, grain imports can only be moderate on the whole and cannot be over-relied on. For rations, it is all the more necessary to ensure that they are foolproof and absolutely safe, and that the rice bowls are firmly in our hands. Our rice bowls should mainly hold the grain we produce. In this way, the new normal of China's economy will have a solid foundation for downgrading the structure, transforming the way, promoting reform, and benefiting the people's livelihood. If you have food in your hand, don't panic in your heart.

How to guard against the risk of national food security

To ensure national food security under the new situation, the first thing is to eliminate misunderstandings. We must change the concept that ensuring national food security is to achieve a sustained increase in grain production. It is not good to have less grain, and too much grain is not necessarily a good thing. We also need to change the understanding that national food security is equated with domestic food self-sufficiency, and not excluding grain imports is also one of the ways for China to ensure national food security under the new situation.

The reason for the misunderstanding of national food security is related to the delusions of food problems in our country. When it is difficult for farmers to sell grain in some places, it is easy to think that our country produces too much grain and has an oversupply. When some places rush to buy grain in the market in a short period of time, it is easy to think that China's grain supply is tight, so grain management enterprises hoard grain and residents increase household reserves. Changes in people's expectations of the relationship between national grain supply and demand will often lead to misjudgment in the grain market.

In 2015, changing the mode of agricultural development and adjusting the agricultural structure is the central task of China's agricultural and rural work. This requires that we must raise the level of understanding of grain work and regard the stability of grain production as the core of the central task. We should not substantially reduce grain production just because we have to change the mode of restructuring, let alone give up the process of upgrading grain production capacity, nor should we allow the impact of the international market on domestic grain production just because of the overall use of two kinds of resources in the two markets.

In view of the excessive application of chemical fertilizers in China's grain production for many years, excessive consumption of soil fertility and groundwater, and blind reclamation of mountains, woodlands, grasslands and wetlands in some places, it is really necessary to withdraw this part of grain production capacity. This requires that China's grain subsidies and market purchase policies should be adjusted accordingly, explore ways to qualify for preferential policies, and those who engage in grain production in ecologically fragile areas are not allowed to enjoy preferential policies. On the contrary, those who pay attention to food quality and safety, food production resources protection and cultivation, and agro-ecological benefits should be rewarded and subsidized by the government.

In the long run, the fundamental way to ensure national food security is the improvement of potential production capacity. This requires that we must adhere to the red line of cultivated land, promote the construction of high-standard farmland, speed up the innovation of agricultural science and technology, build a new agricultural management system, cultivate a new generation of farmers, and develop appropriate scale management and grain industrialization.

In response to the impact of low prices in the international grain market, it is necessary to standardize the international grain trade order, crack down on smuggling, and investigate and deal with illegal acts such as the import of inferior grain mixed with domestic high-quality grain sales. In the long run, China must realize the diversification and contract of grain imports and reduce the transmission impact of sharp fluctuations in the international grain market.