The reduction of surplus grain in producing areas will show the contradiction between supply and demand of corn after the year.

With the end of the year approaching, farmers in producing areas are actively selling grain, the speed of temporary storage and acquisition is rising steadily, feed enterprises begin to prepare stocks before the end of the year, and the purchase and sale of corn market is hot, but corn prices have not been boosted. It is expected that after the Spring Festival, with a large amount of temporary storage, rising traders' stocks and a small proportion of good grain, the contradiction between supply and demand will gradually emerge, creating opportunities for corn prices to rise.

In the face of storage capacity, the source of grain at the grass-roots level in the producing areas has been reduced. As of January 20, the temporary storage had absorbed a total of 33.18 million tons of corn in northeast China, 430000 tons higher than in the same period last year, and for the first time since the storage, it has exceeded the same period last year. According to the situation of the provinces, by the 20th, the storage volume of Heilongjiang Province was 18.52 million tons, Jilin Province 9.5 million tons, Liaoning Province 1.66 million tons, Inner Mongolia 3.5 million tons, accounting for 49%, 36%, 13% and 19% of the corn output of each province respectively.

From the figures, it can be seen that Heilongjiang has the fastest corn storage speed, and other provinces are obviously slower than last year. Among them, Jilin Province is mainly due to the high mildew rate of corn, Liaoning and Inner Mongolia because of high prices and smooth outflow.

The stock of corn in the trading office is higher than that in the same period last year. Due to a large number of acquisitions by temporary reserves last year, food supplies were in short supply after May, causing corn prices to soar. This year, temporary storage is also acquired at an alarming rate, grass-roots grain sources are shrinking, and the amount of negotiable corn will decline significantly in the future, which is likely to replicate last year's market, attracting traders in producing areas to actively build stocks. At present, the overall stock of grain in trade in the producing areas is significantly higher than that in the same period last year. In addition to the positive attitude of traders in Jilin and Heilongjiang in the northeast, the sharp drop in grain prices in North China has also attracted local traders to start building stocks. However, in view of the high moisture content of corn, the current storage capacity is still limited.

The increase of inventory in trade will reduce the quantity of grass-roots corn to a certain extent. At the same time, prices are more likely to be supported by costs and form short-term benefits to grain prices; but on the other hand, they can also regulate the market. After grain prices rise to a reasonable level, trade food sources can be put into the market one after another, reducing the possibility of a surge similar to that of last year.

Farmers sell grain at a fast pace, and the supply pressure weakens after the year. Driven by the acquisition of temporary reserves and the active construction of warehouses by traders, the current progress of grain sales by farmers in producing areas is faster than that in the same period last year, almost half of them. Among them, Liaoning and Inner Mongolia have bottomed out, and the progress of Heilongjiang Province has reached about 70%. The Beginning of Spring and before the Spring Festival, farmers in producing areas will continue to maintain high enthusiasm for grain sales and speed up the progress of grain sales at the grass-roots level. At the pace of loose supply, it is difficult to change the trend of weak food prices. The early release before the year is conducive to the relief of supply pressure after the year and lay the foundation for the rebound of grain prices in the later period.

The contradiction between supply and demand may be reflected after the end of the year, providing opportunities for price increases. The surplus inventory of old grain is relatively high in the market in 2012 / 2013, while there is basically no carry-over of trade old grain in 2013 / 2014. Therefore, if this year's temporary reserves are acquired at last year's level, it will be more likely to cause a late supply crunch. Coupled with the small quantity of high-quality corn, good grain will become a "hot commodity", and prices will also be supported. Generally speaking, at present, the corn surplus in the producing areas is gradually shrinking, and it is a high probability event that the grain price will rise due to the shortage of supply after the year. However, the specific rate of increase depends on the final progress of temporary storage acquisition, imports and aquaculture demand.