It is difficult to change the downward trend. Operators have to adapt to changes.

In recent years, profound changes have taken place in China's cotton production. Under the influence of rising labor prices, cotton production costs continue to rise. Compared with major international cotton-producing countries, China's cotton production is in a disadvantageous competitive position. Although the state adopted a temporary collection and storage policy from 2011 to 2013, and the bottom price was open to purchase cotton, which provided strong support to protect the income of cotton farmers, the domestic cotton area still showed a trend of decline year by year, and due to the excessive price difference between internal and external cotton, resulting in a decline in the competitiveness of the domestic textile industry, the national reserve exceeds 10 million tons, and the cost is huge.

Based on this, in 2014, the state tried to replace the temporary collection and storage policy with the target price policy in Xinjiang, supplemented by a fixed subsidy of 2000 yuan per ton in nine inland provinces, trying to ensure the reasonable income of cotton farmers and stabilize cotton production without affecting the market. promote the sustainable development of China's cotton industry.

What is the effect of the target price? From the perspective of market operation, the goal that subsidies do not affect market prices has been basically achieved, and the final effect of stabilizing cotton production remains to be seen. According to the recent survey of cotton farmers' cotton planting intention of China Cotton Association in 2015, the trend of sharp decline in area is basically confirmed. The area of the Yangtze River cotton area and the Yellow River cotton area has decreased by more than 40%, and Xinjiang has also decreased by more than 10%. Even so, next year's policy adjustment (target price reduction) should be a high probability event, and the decline in cotton area may not be fundamentally reversed in the next two or three years.

Changes in cotton production will inevitably affect the cotton seed market. At present, there are three visible effects: first, the market demand for cotton seeds in the inland cotton area has greatly reduced; second, some enterprises have lost confidence in the market and sold goods at low prices; third, cotton farmers have delayed the purchase of seeds. Do these three points mean that the "cold winter" of the cotton seed market has come?

The author thinks that the impact of the reduction of cotton planting area and regional changes on the cotton seed industry will continue, and the situation faced by the cotton seed industry in the next few years will be very grim, and cotton seed enterprises must be psychologically prepared for the "winter". At the same time, under the circumstances that it is difficult to change the general environment for the development of the industry, cotton seed operators must respond to changes and seek opportunities in times of danger. From the promotion of insect-resistant cotton to self-propagation and self-breeding, the reason why Guoxin seed industry, which has been focused on cotton seed management for 30 years, has been able to develop and grow, and seize the opportunities brought about by changes in the situation is a basic experience.

In the face of this round of policy adjustment and its impact, Guoxin seed industry will carry out strategic adjustment from three aspects. First of all, we should firmly do a good job in the confidence of the mainland cotton seed market. Although the area of cotton in the mainland has been greatly reduced, there should still be an area of more than 15 million mu and a demand of about 10,000 tons of cotton seed. As long as the variety is good and the service keeps up, it will win the trust of cotton farmers. At present, the market is so cold, but in some areas of the Yangtze River cotton region, Guoxin H318 cotton seeds are still selling well or even out of stock. The reason is that good varieties are fundamental. In the future, it is necessary to increase breeding efforts and rely on market competitive varieties to increase market share. The second is to vigorously open up the Xinjiang market. In the past two years, Guoxin has invested more than 100 million in Xinjiang, including building a good cotton processing plant, increasing the area of its own breeding farms, and cooperating in the development of scientific research units, etc., with the basic conditions for making a difference, the state focuses on supporting the development of cotton areas in Xinjiang. It is believed that Guoxin can contribute more to Xinjiang cotton production in the future. The third is to expand the scope of business actively and steadily. Fully explore the market network and brand value of Guoxin in the mainland cotton area, market-oriented, actively carry out the business of corn seeds in the mainland. In addition, Guoxin hopes to do something to improve the competitiveness of China's cotton planting industry in the international market. Through cooperation with China Agricultural University Guoxin carried out the experiment of machine cotton picking in the mainland and achieved initial results. coupled with the whole process mechanization and simplified cultivation techniques cotton planting costs were significantly reduced and the basic benefits of cotton farmers were ensured.

Only when cotton farmers have good cotton planting efficiency and can make money, will cotton have an area, and cotton seed operators will have the opportunity to serve cotton farmers and develop themselves.