2015 Development trend of fresh e-commerce: fresh WeChat business is out of the question.

2013-2014 is the two years of rapid development of fresh e-commerce, as the category is difficult to make a breakthrough, the growth of fresh online shopping users will also slow down, so in 2015, the scale growth of the whole market will slow down, and B2C will still be the mainstream.

2015 Development trend of fresh e-commerce: WeChat business is still the mainstream.

Because of the trillions of market potential and less than 1% e-commerce penetration, fresh e-commerce was once known as the last blue sea of e-commerce, and the competition around this market is becoming increasingly fierce. 2013-2014 is the two years of rapid development of fresh e-commerce, on the one hand, the explosion of fresh merchants living on the e-commerce platform, on the other hand, the national expansion of several major vertical fresh e-commerce, at the same time, new vertical e-commerce has entered the bureau. In the capital market, fresh e-commerce enterprises have also received a huge capital injection in the past two years. So what is the development trend of fresh e-commerce this year? How much more can the trillion-scale market penetration increase? When thousands of troops enter, does the blue sea turn into a red sea? Do the newcomers still have a chance? What else is worth paying attention to in the 2015 fresh e-commerce market?

Fresh Red Sea-will there be any falling down?

Although the e-commerce penetration rate of fresh food is less than 1%, compared with 20% of clothing and 3C digital category, it has great potential, but due to many problems, such as low price and freight ratio, difficult preservation, difficult packaging and transportation, and so on, fresh products suitable for e-commerce channels have been developed. In the case that it is difficult to make a breakthrough in the category, the growth of users of fresh online shopping will also slow down, because the rapid growth of the number of users will be basically completed in 2013-14. As a result, the growth of the market as a whole will slow in 2015. Under the premise of slowing market growth, there will be an influx of new competitors this year, and fresh e-commerce has changed from a blue sea to a red sea.

Competition is getting fiercer, and there are few profits, so will any of them fall down this year? According to the author's observation, the fresh e-commerce of the platform has been monopolized by Taobao (including Tmall) and JD.com, and it will be very difficult for other platforms to have a foothold; and the eight vertical fresh e-commerce: Shunfeng preferred selection, I buy the net, the original life, Tuotuo Industrial Society, Futian Network, Tiantian Orchard, easy fruit and delicious Qiqi, because of the huge financial support, will continue to compete for fresh e-commerce channel brands. But in March-September this year, the fresh off-season will face tremendous pressure, there will be changes in the management team. In addition to these eight, it will be difficult to do a full range of vertical fresh e-commerce, if you do not want to fall in the fierce competition, it is best to choose the market segment of fresh food.

Second, opportunities for newcomers-- have the advantage of resources and focus on market segmentation

As mentioned in the previous point, there are two types of opportunities for newcomers: those with resource advantages and those who focus on market segments. In terms of resource advantages, the source enterprises (individuals) of fresh food / agricultural products have more advantages when they are involved in fresh e-commerce. This is mainly because in terms of the current industrial chain of fresh agricultural products, high-quality agricultural products are more scarce; on the other hand, fresh food is not standard, which requires more "first-on-site" knowledge. Last year, a large number of source enterprises (individuals) directly faced consumers through e-commerce channels, although the individual source enterprises (individuals) had a relatively single product line and relatively few products, and their overall sales were not as good as those of vertical fresh e-commerce in all categories, but most of the individual product sales are as good as those of vertical e-commerce. For example, kiwifruit is a hot seller on Taobao, and half of the top 10 sales are direct sales by farmers of origin (farms).

On the other hand, the opportunity comes from market segmentation, on the one hand, it can be subdivided in terms of products: imported milk, imported beef from Australia, organic food, deep-sea seafood and so on. For example, nearly ten businesses specializing in imported beef and mutton from Australia emerged in Tmall last year; on the other hand, they can be subdivided from consumers: pregnant and infant groups, foreigners, and so on. There is to do a small and beautiful NicheMarket, although it is small and beautiful, but the Chinese consumer group is large, any niche market is enough to support a 300,500mu farm.

The above two points are to avoid competition with the full category of vertical fresh e-commerce, in fact, the newcomers still have the opportunity to set foot in the full category of fresh e-commerce, because the customer satisfaction rate of fresh online shopping is generally low, and so far no one has been able to form a strong channel brand, and consumers' loyalty is low. If they can do a good job in their own sub-areas and gradually expand reasonably, they still have the opportunity to cut the fresh cake.

III. The dominant position of the Ali system is difficult to move.

Ali (Taobao and Tmall) undoubtedly occupies an absolute advantage in the current fresh e-commerce market. As a platform e-commerce, Taobao has a monopoly position, and many vertical fresh e-commerce companies have set up flagship stores on Taobao, and many vertical e-commerce sales on Taobao are almost the same as those on the official website. The current advantage of Ali is not only the advantage of volume, the adjustment of several characteristic sections of Taobao is also more suitable for the pace of the development of fresh e-commerce market. At present, there are several special channels: Meow Xiansheng, Huijie, picky food and fresh supermarket. Among them, Meow Xiansheng mainly focuses on all kinds of fresh and popular styles, mainly imported fruits, imported seafood and meat, which are all mature and popular fresh styles; the picky Food Channel focuses on small and beautiful, with distinctive minority foods / agricultural products; fresh supermarkets are purchased for daily life. In contrast, JD.com and No.1 shop still stay in the area of direct supply and regional characteristics. This year, JD.com 's fresh layout is direct supply of origin, price advantage and upgrade of the cold chain distribution system; No.1 fresh is combined with community experience stores to improve distribution services. The direct supply of origin, price advantage and the improvement of distribution services are what all fresh e-commerce companies are doing, which alone is difficult to shake Ali's dominant position in fresh food this year.

Fourth, it is impossible for WeChat businessmen to do fresh food.

Not a chance! This is the answer that the author is most sure of among the five questions. When moments become mask circles, it is already very distasteful. Do you still want moments to turn into fruit circles and pork circles? Although I am talking about the reasons for personal preferences here, in fact, from the nature of things, our various applications and models should be to make life more convenient and communicate more smoothly. Moments is a place to communicate and live with friends. If your moments and WeChat groups are filled with all kinds of Xs, chicken soups and facial masks and cosmetics, now there is a farmer's market. Is life convenient? Is the communication open? If not, the application or model will soon be replaced by a new one. Stories of "successful WeChat merchants" such as Brother Egg and Sister Fruit spread on Wechat only a few times in 2014, and there has been nothing since, just like the original Weibo.

Fifth, will the model be subverted? -- B2C is still mainstream

The most basic mode of fresh e-commerce is B2C model, and then F2C (farm direct supply), C2B (consumer customization), C2F (order agriculture), O2O and CSA (community support agriculture) have been developed. Later, these models are a supplement to the traditional B2C model, which really occupies the mainstream of business is still the traditional B2C model. The reason is very simple, the traditional B2C road is not good, it is not the time to run down the trail. Take a look at that "little peasant girl" who sold all her vegetables on Wechat. WeChat merchants were unable to sell vegetables and suspended their business. This year, they simply opened a brick-and-mortar store, starting with the traditional brick-and-mortar vegetable stalls.

Although there will still be all kinds of new terms in the industry this year, such as mobile XX, Weixx, social XX or X2X, most of them will look as hot as the hot WeChat business and O2O in 2014, but they will be out of date before you figure out what's going on.