It will take time for soybean meal to get out of the "cold winter".

Since January, the pressure on global soybean supply has increased greatly due to the good prospect of high yield in South American soybean producing areas. In mid-January, the main contract of Meidou fell below the integer mark of 1000 cents / bushel and continued to decline. It is expected that in the future, Meidou will continue to explore the support of 900cents / bushel. Under the continued weakness of Meidou, even soybean meal will continue to fall.

Slow shipments and surging inventory in oil factories

Due to the high yield of American beans, there has been a surge in soybean imports this year, and the pressure on domestic supply is increasing. In December 2014, soybean imports reached 8.5268 million tons, the largest monthly import in history, an increase of 15.19% over the same period last year. In addition, according to the World Granary estimates, soybean imports in February 2015 may reach 7 million tons, higher than the same period last year.

Due to the concentration of soybeans in Hong Kong, the operating rate of domestic oil plants remains at a relatively high level. on the whole, the total amount of soybean crushed in January is expected to reach 7.2 million tons, which will be significantly higher than the 6.01 million tons in January last year, and hit a new high in the same period in previous years. And because traders and feed factories are bearish about the future, the enthusiasm of picking up goods is not high, and the transportation of soybean meal in many areas is not smooth due to snowfall, the speed of picking up soybean meal in oil factories is even slower. As a result, soybean meal stocks continued to rise. As of January 25, the total soybean meal inventory of oil factories in major coastal areas of China was 810700 tons, an increase of 228700 tons, or 39.29%, compared with 582000 tons in the same period last year. The expansion of soybean meal warehouse has seriously led to an increase in the willingness of oil factories to reduce prices, and the spot price of soybean meal has continued to decline recently. in January, the spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang, the benchmark delivery place, fell from 3240 yuan / ton to 3040 yuan / ton. the drop was 6.17%.

Demand is low and stock of soybean meal is not prosperous.

In previous years, this period was the peak season for feed companies to prepare stocks, but this year the situation is very different. Near the end of the New year, pig prices are still in a downward trend. As of the week of January 21, the average price of live pigs in various provinces across the country was 13.41 yuan / kg, down 0.17 yuan / kg from the same period last year, or 1%. The loss of pig farming expanded to 75.9 yuan per head, and the loss seriously hit the farmers' enthusiasm for filling. coupled with the fact that pigs came out at the end of the year, the stock of live pigs, which was already at a low level in history, continued to decline, and the stock of pigs in December was 422 million, down 2.3% from the previous month, 7.8% from the same period last year, and 42.89 million sows, 1.8% from the previous month, and 13.1% from the same period last year. Moreover, the stock of fertile sows has declined for 16 months in a row, which is currently at the lowest level in history, which means that the growth rate of pig stock in the coming year will also be limited, and the demand for pig farming in 2015 is expected to be in a relatively low state.

In addition, the current H7N9 epidemic continues, the control of the southern live poultry market is strengthened, poultry consumption is light, and bird flu continues to affect poultry replenishment, while aquaculture is currently in the off-season, the domestic aquaculture industry is in the doldrums, the terminal demand is weak, feed enterprises are generally bearish about the future, and the demand for stock before the festival is not as good as in previous years. Up to now, there is still no large-scale pre-holiday stock, most of which are still used with purchase, mainly to consume the inventory in hand. Lack of demand support, the price of soybean meal is difficult to say the bottom.

Overall, high-yield expectations in South America are strong, global soybean production will hit another all-time high, while future demand for American beans will gradually weaken, and American beans are expected to continue to decline. While the domestic soybean meal market supply exceeds demand, medium-and long-term soybean meal still has room to fall. However, it is worth noting that near the Spring Festival, feed factories may more or less carry out some pre-festival stock, but the stock is expected to be small, and the recent sharp depreciation of the RMB exchange rate has not made the cost of soybean imports decline with the United States. Oil factories are less willing to sell on the disk, and it is expected that there will be some support for soybean meal prices in the short term, but based on the short-term fundamentals, it is still difficult to improve the medium-term weakness.