Temporary storage acquisition accelerates the rise of grass-roots grain prices and corn prices

I. spot market

Northeast producing areas: temporary storage accelerates the rise of grass-roots grain prices

The acquisition of temporary reserves in the northeast production area has been strengthened again. According to the latest data, the purchase volume in the past five days has reached 6.62 million tons, while the total purchase volume has exceeded 45 million tons. With the help of accelerated acquisition, grass-roots grain prices in the production areas have risen. Due to the large number of purchases of temporary storage and the advance of the sale of new grain this year, the surplus grain of farmers in the current market has decreased rapidly. Some information shows that the amount of corn that can be dumped in Heilongjiang area is no more than 5 million tons, and there may be no grain to be transferred in the later stage. We need to continue to pay attention to the progress of temporary storage acquisition.

North China: corn outflow obvious grain prices may hit bottom and rebound

Grain prices in North China continued last week, with prices rebounding in some grass-roots areas, but stable as a whole, while deep processing enterprises raised prices slightly. On the whole, the regional market does not pay enough attention to the overall grain outflow and temporary storage and acquisition in North China, and the scope of attention is mostly limited to the supply and marketing of corn in this region. Market news shows that traders from the Northeast have gone to North China to store high-quality corn. Coupled with the low grain prices in North China and a large amount of corn outflow, it is expected that once the market is tight after the Spring Festival, grain prices may rebound sharply.

Southern sales area: the impact of higher freight rates on grain prices will take time

After entering February, due to the increase in purchasing demand in sales areas, grain prices rebounded partially, but the whole is still weak. Although the overall moisture content of corn in North China and Shanxi is still on the high side, which inhibits the collection of corn, the large supply of natural dry grain in the northwest ensures an adequate supply of food in the market. In addition, downstream demand is still weak, enterprise reserve funds turnover is slow, although enterprises are optimistic about the post-holiday rising market, but pre-holiday stock are less. The increase in railway freight charges in the early stage has not shown obvious support to the current corn prices, and it is expected that it will take some time to transmit to the market.

North-South Port: price increase in producing areas to support North-South Price

Affected by the recent acceleration of temporary reserve acquisitions, grass-roots grain prices in northeast China have risen, supporting the prices of Beigang. At present, the price of the main part of the acquisition of Beigang has been raised, the acquisition intention is mediocre, and the volume of arrival remains stable, but the upside space of Beigang is limited due to the weak price in Guangdong. As the southern sales area is approaching the Spring Festival, enterprise procurement has increased, and grain enterprises generally plan to prepare stocks after the Spring Festival, which is expected to boost prices in Nangang in the later period, but the arrival of a large number of corn and imported sorghum from Hebei will suppress prices in Nangang in the near future.

Feed breeding: enterprises shut down to increase pre-festival rebound material is hopeless

With 10 working days to go before the Spring Festival, some food processing and slaughtering enterprises have stopped work and had a holiday due to poor market demand, further reducing market demand, and there may be no hope that prices will rebound before the Spring Festival. Recently, pig prices still maintain a weak downward trend, while the prices of eggs and white-striped chickens are in a weak shock pattern.

Deep processing: weak consumption of spirits the price of alcohol "falls endlessly"

Recently, the price of alcohol has not rebounded as the Spring Festival approaches, but recent economic data show that PMI has fallen below the dividing line between the rise and fall of 50. The weakening of the economic environment makes it difficult for demand for optional consumer goods such as liquor to increase significantly, which affects alcohol prices to continue to fall, which is now down 100,200 yuan / ton compared to the same period last year.

Second, market forecast

Due to the acceleration of temporary storage and acquisition in Northeast China, grass-roots grain prices have risen, which has directly led to a rebound in the price of Beigang, but the price of Guangdong port is still weak due to the suppression of a large number of corn and imported sorghum in North China, and the north and south contain each other. The increase in the port in the near future may be limited. However, market research shows that due to the sluggish terminal demand, most of the southern feed enterprises postpone stock preparation, and grain prices may rise after the Spring Festival with the improvement of purchasing demand and the reduction of food supply in the market. It is necessary to pay close attention to the acquisition progress of temporary reserves and the situation of surplus grain sources in the market.